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Old October 8th 03, 08:39 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Paul B Paul B is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Oct 2003
Posts: 104
Default 12Z Model Summary - Wednesday 08th october 2003

Charts analysed are for T+96 hours - 12Z Sunday 12th October 2003
unless stated.

UKMetO:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rukm961.html
High pressure (1025mb) lies over the North Sea, with another large
high(1040mb) lying well to the northeast over Siberia. Low pressure
(995mb) lies to the north of Scandinavia, with another low (990mb)
lying well to the west of the UK in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK
are light to moderate south/southeasterlies, lightest in the east.
Many parts will be mostly fine and dry. Temperatures will be close to
normal in many parts, with chilly nights. As we head into next week
pressure continues to build to the northeast of the country.
Therefore, the UK lies under southeasterly winds with a good deal of
fine weather for most parts.

GFS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn962.html
2m Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rtavn965.html
High pressure (1035mb) lies well to the northeast over Siberia, and
ridges strongly southwestwards into Southern Europe, whilst another
high pressure cell (1025mb) is developing just to the east of the UK.
Low pressure (990mb) lies well to the north of Scandinavia, with
another low (two centres of 985mb) centred to the south of Greenland
in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are mostly light
south/southeasterlies, moderate in the west. Many parts will be mainly
dry and bright. 850hPa temperatures range from 0C over the Shetland
Islands to +7C in the south. Forecast 2m temperatures range from 9C
over the Scottish Highlands to +16C in the south, but chilly nights.
Beyond this pressure continues to build to the east of the country,
leaving the UK under warmer southerly winds with a good deal of fine
weather for most parts, although it may turn more unsettled in the
northwest later next week.

DWD:
SLP: http://www.wetter.com/home/img/sat/g...081200_096.gif
High pressure (1030mb) is centred over the UK. Low pressure (990mb)
lies to the north of Scandinavia, with another low (990mb) lying close
to the south of Greenland in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK are
mostly light and variable in direction. Many parts will be mainly dry
and bright. Temperatures will be close to normal in many parts, but
chilly nights and perhaps fog slow to clear. Beyond this the high
settles to the northeast of the country over Scandinavia, pulling in
cooler easterly winds but conditions continue mostly settled.

NOGAPS:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp961.html
850hPa Temperatu http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rngp962.html
12Z run unavailable at time of writing.

JMA:
SLP: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma961.html
850hPa Temperatures: http://www.wetterzentrale.com/pics/Rjma962.html
High pressure (1025mb) lies over the North Sea, with another high
(1035mb) centred well to the northeast over Siberia. Low pressure
(995mb) lies to the north of Scandinavia, with another low (985mb)
lying well to the west of the UK in the Atlantic. Winds across the UK
are mostly light to moderate south.southeasterlies. Many parts will be
mainly dry and fine. 850hPa temperatures range from between +5C and
+7C across all parts. Temperatures will be close to normal. Beyond
this pressure settles to the northeast of the UK, with the
southeasterly winds freshening, and perhaps rain into the west by the
middle of next week.

Canadian – T+72 hours for SATURDAY:
All charts: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/m...ast/478_50.gif
High pressure lies over Europe, and ridges northwestwards across the
UK. Low pressure (981mb) lies to the north of Scandinavia, whilst
another low (990mb) lies well to the west of the country in the
Atlantic. The UK lies under light winds, mostly from a westerly
quarter. Most areas will be mostly dry and fine, with chilly nights.
Daytime. temperatures will be close to normal in most areas.

Summary:
A settled picture as we go through the weekend and into next week, but
still some question marks over where the high will settle, which will
have a bearing on temperatures. Solutions range from a rather warm
south/southeasterly (GFS) to a cooler easterly flow (DWD). One thing
is fairly certain though, and that is that conditions will be mostly
dry and settled well into next week.