On 13 Oct 2003 05:12:18 -0700, Scott Whitehead in
. com wrote:
snip

"Historical climate research indicates that climate change does not
follow a pattern that people seem to expect (the climate always
gradually and slowly changing over the course of a long time). Rather,
the evidence indicates that the planet can suddenly flip from one
climatic condition to a new equilibrium in about ten years. (so then
climate change can be said to resemble the flipping of the earth's
magnetic poles, which also takes place abruptly). What this suggests
is that climate change only requires that the ecosystem reach
'critical mass' and then the 'climate flips' and the world reaches a
new equilibrium and a new climatic state prevails.

snip
Very off topic in terms of UK weather - but I wondered if anybody has
any comments on this.

This idea of a "sudden flip" was suggested by Edward Lorenz back in the
1960s. He never discounted other causes of climate change, but added the
*possibility* the atmosphere can exist in two (or more) stable states, with
a rapid transition between them possible. He cited the long forgotten
Fultz dishpan experiments, which simulated the long wave behaviour of the
upper troposphere in a rotating tank. Fultz found that at certain rotation
rates of the pan (analogous to the speed of rotation of the earth), both a
4 or 5 wave pattern were possible - each persisting for a long time until
there was some external disturbance. He found a flip from 4 to 5 and back
was possible. David Fultz died last year and here is a URL about his life:

http://www-news.uchicago.edu/release...31.fultz.shtml

--
Mike posted to uk.sci.weather 13/10/2003 12:42:09 UTC
Coleraine
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