One thing that has struck me all along this year is the _superficial_
similarity to 1959. I haven't checked in detail the synoptic picture,
but for parameters like sunshine, temperature, character of
summer/autumn etc., it is quite interesting to see how the same comments
crop up in 1959 weather summaries (but only for the southeastern part of
England - not trying to spread the analogue too far geographically).

In October 1959, I've got notes such as:.... "an exceptionally sunny
month"; "a mostly dry month". At the time, regarded as the sunniest
October in the England/Wales series. Exceptionally warm in the first
week - all following a fine, warm/dry summer - one of the 'best'
(depending upon your point of view of course) in the 20th century.
However, 26th October: "Exceptional rainfall across central and northern
Britain" - and the "month ended cold and stormy". October 1959 rainfall
ended up technically 'close-to-average' over the EWP domain.

The rainfall over the following winter (using the Hadley/EWP dataset)
was on the high side - January notably so. And although not
'exceptionally' mild, the average temperature Dec/Jan/Feb using the CET
dataset was 4.6degC, which is not far away from the *current* mean
(1971-2000), but was about half-a-degree above the 1961-1990 average,
and nearly a degree above the 'whole-dataset' winter average.

Of note though, and always worth pointing out in our current debates,
there was notable snowfall, particularly in Scotland in January & more
generally in February - also some Severe Gales in December 1959.

I'm not saying this is what is going to happen this time around, but
worth not getting too hung-up on the current dry, relatively quiet
spell. The latest GFS output for example would suggest a major change
back-end of next week .... as ever "more runs are needed".

Martin.