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Old October 24th 03, 08:25 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Col Col is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
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Default Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range


"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
snip

All these things the method can do. It requires time, and weather is endless.

Col, I'm sorry to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose


Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure I understand exactly how you do it,
but I get the gist that it is completely different from 'current thinking'.
I assume that you disbelieve completely in chaos theory and that if only the
forecaster was skilled enough, they could forecast an individual day's
weather pretty much as far into the future as they want?

Also I believe there are times at which the atmosphere is on a 'knife edge'
as to what to do. Say for example during a winter cold spell it is thought
that in 5 days time mild westerlies will break through or then again, they
may not. Chances may be 50:50. What happens at this critical point may
well determine the weather for weeks ahead.
I can't see how your method can take account of this type of event, which
is essentially random.

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.


I will save it and see what happens on a day to day basis.

Col
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Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
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