"Alastair McDonald" k
wrote in message ...


How can you verify a forecast like that? 60% / 40% is very like
"Heads
I win. Tails you loose." Last night's TV program said that the 'String
Theory' was not science (only philosophy) because it could not be
tested. Can't you say the same of the Giles' forecast?


.... that was the problem. As we have been banging on about for some
time, if you want to go into extended forecasting, it must be expressed
in probabilistic language: the forecasts issued via the BBC weather site
that I mentioned were not. This one at least does attempt this in it's
headline phase, but then he lets himself down with the following (as an
example)

"13 - 17 January
High pressure is still likely to be in charge during this period, but
with its centre out to the west of Ireland most of the country will have
bitterly cold northerly winds, which may bring some snow showers to
north facing coasts and hills. Inland, sheltered from the winds, there
will be a severe and penetrating frost."

Not a lot of doubt there!

I've copied the forecast referred to and will post a periodic analysis
as the period unfolds. He may well be right (and many in the ng will be
happy) ... so I'll suspend further judgement until the forecast has run
it's course.

Martin.