Thread: 60 per cent chance of cold, dry winter says Bill Giles
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Old November 4th 03, 02:03 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Adrian D. Shaw Adrian D. Shaw is offline
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Default 60 per cent chance of cold, dry winter says Bill Giles
Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Alastair McDonald :
How can you verify a forecast like that? 60% / 40% is very like "Heads
I win. Tails you loose."

As a one-off forecast, yes. But as one of many forecasts, no.
If you have, say, 10 or more such forecasts, and the accuracy is actually
around 20%, then you can say they weren't very good forecasts. Arguably,
you could also say the forecasts weren't good if the accuracy was 90%
(at least, the probability estimating wasn't good!).

Adrian
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