Hello Adrian!

What you say is true. It does'nt matter what happens in the meantime it won't
affect the forecast on the future date. There is no consecutiveness in actual
weather. What happened yesterday is not valid for today's weather. It is
important for computer forecasting to know what happened yesterday because they
need to know. That's why I only have one shot at a forecast. If I made the
forecast last year for next week's weather, it would still be exactly the same
forecast without the slightest change.

Computer forecasting takes advantage of the fact that there is a short time flow in
weather (SOMETIMES). That means - if a depression is moving NE'wards yesterday,
the chances are that it will move NE today (as a rough example) Its direction
and position can be calculate and then shown on the next forecast chart. But if
nature decides otherwise, the forecast is wrong.

My own position is more on the side of nature and natural weather than on the
computer side of forecasting.

Cheers, Keith.

"Adrian D. Shaw" schrieb:

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Keith Darlington :
Hello, WeatherCam!

'How in the hell can I forecast for 20th November?' Well, I don't use the
forecasting methods which everyone else seems to use. I use a DIRECT method
and not a SUCCESSIVE method of forecasting. I need a date and a time and the
forecast is ready. I have one shot only and that is usually sufficient to
describe the event.

I don't really understand this. It implies that no matter what happens
between now and 20th November (or whenever) it is irrelevant to your forecast,
and that should something unexpected happen during that time, your forecast
will still be valid.

That doesn't make sense to me.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk