During the recent unsettled spell I tabulated the grid-point rainfall
predictions from the MRF model representative of Luton for each
successive model run for complete rainfall events (i.e. the rain
resulting from the passage of a depression or frontal system,
rather than discrete 6 hr periods):

Event
28/29Oct 30-31Oct 2Nov 3/4Nov
Run
T-96 - - 8.5 0.0
T-90 - - 3.5 0.5
T-84 - 0.0 6.5 0.0
T-78 - 0.0 3.5 0.5
T-72 - 0.0 18.0 0.5
T-66 - 0.5 8.5 0.5
T-60 - 9.0 5.5 0.5
T-54 - 6.5 7.0 0.0
T-48 - 27.0 3.5 0.5
T-42 25.5 21.5 7.5 1.0
T-36 17.5 24.0 13.5 0.5
T-30 12.0 25.5 10.5 0.5
T-24 7.5 28.5 11.5 0.5
T-18 11.0 32.5 11.5 0.5
T-12 8.5 21.5 8.0 0.5
T-6 8.0 28.0 7.5 0.5
T-0 7.5 24.0 8.0 0.5

Actual 9.9 20.7 11.1 0.2

(T-0 is the last run before the rain began; T-96 is four days
before the rain began)

Having grown up in an era when trying to predict rainfall
amounts even 24 hours ahead was regarded as laughable,
I find these really quite impressive.

Philip Eden