"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
Now could anyone
predict with accuracy that I would not get wet? Yes, knowing exact
location
of the shower, its expected lifespan, etc, would have worked on the day,
but
at T-24? That must remain a dream.

Not a dream, Jack, but a nightmare, though I see your point of view.
The
day the weather becomes that predictable at the meso- or micro-scale will
be
the day to stop taking any interest in it and frankly I hope it never
happens.
For instance, today I recorded my highest November max (17.8) in the 21
yrs I
have been recording. From the forecast I did not expect it but it all
adds to
the interest. Maybe a professional would think differently.

Some might, but not the ones that come here, I reckon. What sort of
professional would it be, anyway, whose sole job was to disseminate
these 100% accurate computer products? Not a job for anyone the
least bit interested in the weather.

Getting back to Jack's point, I quite agree. My point in posting was
not to suggest that the model was approaching infallibility, merely to point
out that, on those recent occasions, it did rather well. I do recall that
rainfall event in late-August -- the only significant rainfall of the
month hereabouts -- which brought 0.9mm intermittent rain straddled
over a six hour period to Luton, and 2 or 3 days in advance the same
model was predicting about 75mm over a 48 hour period.

Philip Eden