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Old November 22nd 03, 11:06 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Keith Darlington Keith Darlington is offline
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First recorded activity by Weather-Banter: Jul 2003
Posts: 157
Default British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th December 2003

The forecast AVERAGE PRESSURE CHART for the period 1st to 10th December
2003 shows a LP area slap-bang over the whole of the British Isles.
There's a flat ridge on the Azores HP to the SW of us and there's a HP
centred over Poland stretching from N Italy towards Finland and N
Scandinavia. The latter HP is only thin, but quite long.

Experience shows that the LP centred over us, will not be seen over the
whole period. But any HP coming to us will only stay for a short while
before briskly moving off. It means, too, that LP's will tend to
linger and be more active.

So we're in for a damp time. HP sessions will be brief. Temperatures
should be about average or slightly under average, cooler in the W
and NW of the country, but warmer in the E and NE..

Generally speaking, the first few days of the period will see HP moving
away E'wards as LP comes into the country from the W. A quick flash
of HP on 6th before LP approaches from the W once again. The last day
sees the the start of a short spell of HP as pressure rises over the
country on 10th.

And now a bit more detail.

On 1st December, there should be a small LP in the North Sea area
moving away E'wards. Behind it, pressure should be rising with a cool
NW airstream over the country. Down to the SW, a HP ridge can be
expected which won't develop too far N'wards because the HP is only a
fleeting event as an Atlantic LP rushes into the NW of the British
Isles. The weather will be - showers dying out along the E coastal
areas as fine weather crosses the country from the W followed by cloud
and rain behind it. Winds will most probably be NW backing to S and SW
later.

On 2nd December, the HP of yesterday should have transferred to the
continent stretching down the Norwegian coast to N Germany and E
Europe. Only the British NE coast should experience the last bit of
it. Meanwhile a medium sized depression near Iceland has a trough
SE'wards down to England. Over the mainland of England, winds
should be from the S. On the W side of the country winds should be
from the W and in these winds there could be a wave entering the
country and bringing us a few heavy showers. To the SW of us a ridge
from the Azores HP builds up and travels in the direction of the
Channel area, bringing a slow improvement along the South coast.

On 3rd December, the Azores HP has a ridge from the SW of the country
through the Channel to the S North Sea. To the NW of us a depression
lies near S Iceland. Over most of the country the winds are SW but only
light in the SE of the country where night frost and fog could occur.

On 4th December, the Iceland depression has a trough SE'wards to
England and there could be a small secondary LP near Wales. Winds
should be S in the E of the county and W to NW in the W of the country.
There should be rain showers for most of the country but a slight
improvement is possible in the W later in the day.

On 5th December, a large LP area covers the Norwegian Sea, the North
Sea and Scandinavia. A small depression in the North Sea moves away
and leaves a NW airstream over the British Isles. In the SW of the
country, a flat ridge approaches S Ireland and moves E'ward into the W
of Britain. As the showers slowly die out in the N, NE and E of the
country, weather slowly improves from the SW and spreads into the W half
of the country.

On 6th December, the HP of yesterday lies from S to N along the S and E
side of Britain. An Atlantic LP extends E'wards into W Scotland
Winds will be light in the E and SE of the country but will turn S and
SW later. The fine weather along the E side of the country will move off
E'wards as rain and showers take over from the W.

On 7th December, a depression lies to the N of the country. A W or
WSW airstream brings rain and showers over the N half of the
country. Slightly better weather can be found in the S.

On 8th December, a large depression lies to the SW, W and NW of
Britain. A SW airstream covers the country. A wave over Wales and
a second wave over S North Sea could bring extra wind and rain to these
areas. It should be a mild drizzly day for most places.

On 9th December, the SW airstream still covers the country with mild
drizzly conditions. The Atlantic depression is moving in a NE direction
towards Iceland. On it's southern flank a small secondary LP could
develop, but should not cause us much trouble because the Azores-HP
to Biscay, begins to develop northwards.

On 10th December, the Azores HP has a ridge to Biscay, W France and
N'wards along the British E coast. A depression lies to the NW of
the country bringing SW winds into Ireland and W Scotland which spread
E'wards into the rest of the country. The fine weather moves E'wards and
rain showers follow on from the W.

Personal affairs:
I'm not getting a complete coverage of this Newsgroup at the moment.
Some postings escape me. And it's my computer that's at fault. It
means that I'm not able to reply to postings on this site. Perhaps if
Santa is kind this Christmas things may change earlier than I expect.

Cheers, Keith
P.S. I can't tell whether this posting reaches the Newsgroup. Hope it
does.