centerbold WINTER FORECAST 2003-2004./centerbold


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0

METHODOLOGY
Cycles after Mason 1976, mainly 23 and 76 years. 20%. Result: Rather
Mild December, Average January Mild February.
Similarities from CETs and Ewp data. 30 % . Result: Mild December.
Rather Mild January. Rather mild February
Similarities/dissimilarities in pressure and contour pattern for the
preceding autumn, with greatest emphasis on temperature and rainfall,
and especially November rainfall. 40%. Result: Rather Mild December.
Rather Cold January. Rather Mild February
H H Lambs work 10% (Mainly for timing, Russian unlikes etc). Result:
Average overall. Cold snaps most likely at the end of December.
Anytime in January, and mid-February.

Summary: Rather Mild or Mild. Rainfall just above average. Average
snowfall in north due to a few temporary cold snaps. Below average in
the south due to a scarcity of cold easterlies.
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
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