On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 16:13:01 +0000, Paul Bartlett wrote in


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0
snip

As ever - many thanks Paul for sharing your thoughts with us - and in the
only sensible way - probabilistic. This seems to tie in with the other
"respected" sources of LRFs.


--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 28/11/2003 16:26:50 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/