"Alastair McDonald" k wrote in
message ...

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
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On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 16:13:01 +0000, Paul Bartlett wrote in


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0
snip

As ever - many thanks Paul for sharing your thoughts with us - and in the
only sensible way - probabilistic. This seems to tie in with the other
"respected" sources of LRFs.

Well Mike and Paul,

I can't say I like the probalistic approach. How can it be verified?
Science that can't be verified is philosophy, or so the C4 program
on String Theory claimed.

I 'll settle for 1C above average, but what is the average? I couldn't see
where that was specified in the original post.

I suspect that Paul will feel his forecast was most correct if it lands
in that 30% zone of 'Rather Mild'.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk