Mike!
If I missed your comments a week or two ago, then I'm sorry. It is not like me to
miss a reply. However I did mention at the bottom of one of my detailed forecasts that
my server was not delivering all the postings to this NG. So it appears your posting
was one of the many I missed. Sorry about that.
Mike, if I understand you correctly you think the detailed forecasts have a dreadful
record and you quote the detailed forecast for 5th Decamber to support your viewpoint.
Let's check it shall we. I have a reputaable analysis for 00Z, 5th December 2003 in
front of me. There is a large LP covering Scandinavia, and the Norwegian Sea. (Not
the North Sea as you rightly infer.). The small depression mentioned by me is not
over the North Sea - there is a small depression between Iceland and Norway which
could fit the bill. It's a quick mover in any case, but that is reserved for
tomorrow's forecast. Perhaps one could argue that the small depression lies in the
trough over S Norway and S Sweden. The fact remains that NW winds are blowing over the
North Sea and not over the British Isles.
To the SW of Britain there was a HP ridge - and it didn't approach S Ireland, it
approached NW Ireland. The HP ridge didn't move E'ward, it stayed where it was, more
or less.
From a pressure-reading point of view and not a frontal point of view, there was a
general improvement in the weather.
So there we have it, Mike. The forecast wasn't as wrong as much as you imply. The
question is HOW MUCH LEEWAY do you give to a forecast that is done by hand and is
posted 14 days in advance and constructed 20 or more days before the date. Should my
forecast be as good as the charts you usually work with?
If you find the discrepancies on the 5th December so grave, what is your opinion of
the NWP after 5 days. Are they held in the same relationship?
Mike, I have done almost two months of forecasts. I have only found one day on which I
would say - completely wrong; not a single likeness. And I'd have a look to see why
that single forecast went wrong, and I wouldn't settle until I had found out the
reason. The date was 4th December. I didn't get the HP building up from the SW.
I saw the single depression near Spain having a connection with the Iceland LP. This
wasn't the case. I saw this coming a few days before, and I felt that if criticism
was to come, that would be the sticking point. You never noticed it, Mike, And that
tells me really how much you are studying the detailed forecasts.
If you do get down to studying the forecasts, you will see that the timing of the
change-over from one situation to the next is worth while the study.
Cheers, Keith
Mike Tullett schrieb:
On Fri, 05 Dec 2003 10:11:46 +0100, Keith Darlington wrote in
Post re-ordered
Will schrieb:
Brendan DJ Murphy wrote in message ...
TYPICAL!
The 12z runs are now displayed and the 528 line is North of UK and winds are
now southerlies!
Its amazing what a difference 6 hours can make to the models.
Brendan
Exactly. And some people think they can forecast the weather to two week
precision 3 months ahead, or give forecasts for Christmas week in October. Pah !
Which planet are they on ?
Hi Will!
Your obviously not studying the forecasts, just stating your feelings. How
unscientific. Pah!
Cheers Keith
P.S. It's good I saw your posting, otherwise your comments would have gone
unanswered.
Keith - I'm sure Will is stating more than just his feelings and is basing
his views on the dreadful record of these so called detailed "long range
forecasts".
Here is an example for today the 5th December:
quote
On 5th December, a large LP area covers the Norwegian Sea, the North
Sea and Scandinavia. A small depression in the North Sea moves away
and leaves a NW airstream over the British Isles. In the SW of the
country, a flat ridge approaches S Ireland and moves E'ward into the W
of Britain. As the showers slowly die out in the N, NE and E of the
country, weather slowly improves from the SW and spreads into the W half
of the country.
endquote
That was posted on the 22nd November by your good self. I see no mention
of the high covering us and I note all places are currently dry.
For tomorrow you stated:
"An Atlantic LP extends E'wards into W Scotland" when all the signs are of
just the opposite - high centres to the NW and N of us.
I commented a week or so ago on the inaccuracies in your forecasts, but you
seem to have _overlooked_ my post.
--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 05/12/2003 09:44:18 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/