"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
Mike - I would like to come back and reply to some of the points you have
made.

SNIP
Bill Giles uses a sequential method of forecasting - ie. he needs to know
the latest
analysis in order to project into the future. I don't. I go directly to
the date I
require. Furthermore, Bill Giles explains much about the likely atmospheric
weather. I
don't. My interest lies in forecasting the expected pressure situation.

Keith, no doubt you have probably explained your methodology more than once on
this forum if not others - unfortunately I do not recall them. I hope you can
take the time to answer these queries.

Is your methodology based on some form of cyclical pattern or what? When you say
you go directly to a date then is it that you have visualised some sort of
pressure pattern based on a prior result? Or is it that you determine the
pressure pattern is, forgive me, "calendar" driven? I don't mean literally but
some sort of referral to specific time of season / year, etc.?

Given the difficulty I have understanding how you derive your forecasts you'll
excuse me, I hope, if I question how conditions that fail to arise on any
particular day in your forecasts do not interfere or alter the weather you had
expected to occur in following days?

Finally, and I do mean this constructively, how do you yourself measure your own
success and have you published any specific results based on this criteria? Also
to what "scale" to you find your forecasts reliable, i.e. are your forecasts
generally restricted to an area the size of the British Isles or can you be even
more specific?


J.