Can anybody tell me why accuweather.com claims its 15-day forecasts are so
accurate when they change on a daily basis. I have been watching the
forecasts for Gainesville, Florida, for two weeks trying to determine what
to expect Wed, Thur and Friday, Thanksgiving weekend. It has gone from
sunny and cold to warm and thunderstorms to mostly sunny and cool with a
chance of rain on Thursday. What gives?

Anybody care to make a prediction on how successful my Thanksgiving camping
trip will turn out?

TIA.

Keith

luv2bafield wrote:
Can anybody tell me why accuweather.com claims its 15-day forecasts
are so accurate when they change on a daily basis. I have been
watching the forecasts for Gainesville, Florida, for two weeks trying
to determine what to expect Wed, Thur and Friday, Thanksgiving
weekend. It has gone from sunny and cold to warm and thunderstorms
to mostly sunny and cool with a chance of rain on Thursday. What
gives?

Heck! One of those possibilities is all but guaranteed to come to
pass - then they can say they forecast it accurately... ;^)

Anybody care to make a prediction on how successful my Thanksgiving
camping trip will turn out?

Not very well at all if you're a turkey...

TIA.

Keith

Yes and the likes of Joe B. who sits on the fence and dances all over the
place, any one of his scenerios will come true....
"Bob Harrington" wrote in message
news:tBCub.243933$Tr4.737782@attbi_s03...
luv2bafield wrote:
Can anybody tell me why accuweather.com claims its 15-day forecasts
are so accurate when they change on a daily basis. I have been
watching the forecasts for Gainesville, Florida, for two weeks trying
to determine what to expect Wed, Thur and Friday, Thanksgiving
weekend. It has gone from sunny and cold to warm and thunderstorms
to mostly sunny and cool with a chance of rain on Thursday. What
gives?

Heck! One of those possibilities is all but guaranteed to come to
pass - then they can say they forecast it accurately... ;^)

Anybody care to make a prediction on how successful my Thanksgiving
camping trip will turn out?

Not very well at all if you're a turkey...

TIA.

Keith

Your best bet 15 days out is to go with climatology. Accuweather is just
trying make folks believe they can actually forecast day 15 to gain
customers. As usual, Accuweather is only concerned with the almighty dollar
and not science. Unfortunately, with weather privatization comes the loss of
objectivity and increased hype.


"luv2bafield" wrote in message
ink.net...
Can anybody tell me why accuweather.com claims its 15-day forecasts are so
accurate when they change on a daily basis. I have been watching the
forecasts for Gainesville, Florida, for two weeks trying to determine what
to expect Wed, Thur and Friday, Thanksgiving weekend. It has gone from
sunny and cold to warm and thunderstorms to mostly sunny and cool with a
chance of rain on Thursday. What gives?

Anybody care to make a prediction on how successful my Thanksgiving
camping
trip will turn out?

TIA.

Keith

Though skill is increasing in the extended range, it still has a lot of
problems. And with this time of year (transitioning into winter over the
South), a change of a day in timing, or a system that does or does not
deepen as much as advertised, etc, things can change radically day to day.
The only decent forecasting tool(next to climo), is an ensemble approach, at
this point. As for why private companies offer a 14 or 15 day forecast (or
even a year and a half in advance for one company that I've heard about, but
can't remember their address at this point), is because people want to know.
The people who do use them the most know the problems involved in generating
the forecast, and how Mother Nature can throw some mean curve balls. They
are the ones keeping score. The general public do not, with most (IMHO) not
able to remember the forecast for more than a few days back, so they don't
realize how bad a specific forecast that far in advance may or may not turn
out to be. And the private sector will continue to give the people what they
want, and make money doing it.

Stephen Miller


"luv2bafield" wrote in message
ink.net...
Can anybody tell me why accuweather.com claims its 15-day forecasts are so
accurate when they change on a daily basis. I have been watching the
forecasts for Gainesville, Florida, for two weeks trying to determine what
to expect Wed, Thur and Friday, Thanksgiving weekend. It has gone from
sunny and cold to warm and thunderstorms to mostly sunny and cool with a
chance of rain on Thursday. What gives?

Anybody care to make a prediction on how successful my Thanksgiving
camping
trip will turn out?

TIA.

Keith

The trick which I use which MAY actually work from time to time is to go
farthest out with the forecast to kind of determine what may happen. Also
using extrapolation works. This is all technical stuff.
For example:
If the last 2 days of a 15 day forecast calls for partly cloudy or
mostly cloudy skies, that COULD mean rain or a storm front nearby at least.

Your best bet for dryness is the word "Sunny" even in a 15-day cast. THis
MIGHT just mean cloudy but dry. Understand ?

If the 12th day is sunny, the 13th day is partly cloudy, the 14th mostly
cloudy, the 15th mostly cloudy, I would bet there would be rain instead and
possibly even on the 12th/13th day. It sounds to me like that forecast
might be an error, and you have to account for this. If you were into
meteorlogy and forecasting, you would understand more.

"luv2bafield" wrote in message
ink.net...
Can anybody tell me why accuweather.com claims its 15-day forecasts are so
accurate when they change on a daily basis. I have been watching the
forecasts for Gainesville, Florida, for two weeks trying to determine what
to expect Wed, Thur and Friday, Thanksgiving weekend. It has gone from
sunny and cold to warm and thunderstorms to mostly sunny and cool with a
chance of rain on Thursday. What gives?

Anybody care to make a prediction on how successful my Thanksgiving
camping
trip will turn out?

TIA.

Keith