To borrow that well-traveled title.


The electricity is back on! My area was in the first ten
percent restored.

There's something 3 million South Florida residents without power
would like to say to the National Hurricane Center.
Getting the track right is NOT a successful effort when the
intensity is completely botched.

I don't care how many qualifying statements or disclaimers
they made. During the critical time period, about two days
before landfall, when the decisions are made on what to
expect. They were telling us the shear would weaken it
to a cat 1, then weaken further after landfall. To us down
here in Florida a poorly organized cat 1 that is dissipating
is no big deal. Barely miss a day or two of work.

But a TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY MILE WIDE
Category 3 is something entirely completely.... a couple
order of magnitudes.... BIGGER.

We were only one category away from a hundred billion
dollar catastrophe. Everyone down here was completely
taken by surprise on the intensity and especially the
scale of this storm.

There's another thing I'd like to say to the NHC. I know
their political leaders disdain any talk of global warming.
But there's an important trend that must be discussed even
if it leads to their taboo subject.

Wilma was a super-massive vortex.

Last year saw an unprecedented number of land-falling
hurricanes. No one could imagine a season worse, as
last year saw about as many hurricanes as you can fit
into one season. But all that energy has to go somewhere
so the hurricanes are simply getting BIGGER in size.
Forget the intensity for now, they are growing larger
in scale.

Much larger. We saw the incredible size of Katrina when
it was a cat 5 in the gulf. And now Wilma. The large size
of the eye usually indicates a weak hurricane, as they
strengthen the eye tightens. So the NHC sees the large
eye which shouldn't have time to tighten before landfall.
And with the shear of the turn all computer projections
show weakening. Wrong.

It spun up without the eye tightening much.. That NEVER happens.
It had an eye half the size of the Montana for chrissakes.
This is an unprecedented and significant change in hurricane behavior.
It's almost hundred mile wide southern stream of air feeding
the vortex was a most impressive event to witness. You could almost
set your watch by the timing of the lulls and explosive gusts. It had a
symmetry and mass to it that boggles the imagination. For crying
out loud the gusts literally shook the ground. No kidding, the ground
was swaying back and forth under my feet.

But the NHC will not want to talk about it. Why? Because
someone might then ask why are they bigger. Their 20 year
hurricane cycle won't explain it, were they bigger the last
few cycles? Being near a peak solar cycle won't fully explain
it either. We've had both those cycles operating for ages.

But if you add a new variable, global warming, on top of those
other two causes, then you get a more complete answer.
So the NHC won't go down that road since it leads to
somewhere their political leaders wish to avoid.

Meanwhile, the NHC pops a few corks over their accurate
track, while completely missing the true story.


Jonathan

s