NOAA CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON
 

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Martin Rowley wrote:

It is noticeable that we have not got the marked (and reasonably large)
'warm patch' just east of the Lesser Antilles, though the NOAA statement
says that the sea temperatures are still generally above average. There
is a complication, as I understand that the climatology used for these
anomaly maps has changed, and of course whether or not fully-formed T/S
develop is not just a case of lifting the SST's etc.

I must say that the stuff I do has been all to cock whilst the NAO is
negative so there is a silver lining over this side of the pond too*.
The soil in my garden is still bone dry a few inches down. Though that
may be because I am only looking at the parts where I have nothing
growing.

It will be interesting to see how this year's Hurricane season works
out, as in my mind, we need some of the 'debris' development from that
side of the Atlantic to kick our own synoptic patterns into a different
gear: it's all got a bit 'stuck' at the moment!

This sounds a little like complacency. There have been a number of
misty days here with no appreciable Extra Tropical Storms forming. Last
year the phenomenae were intimately linked.

This season is very much an experience to be savoured. I can't help but
think that more than one or two here are missing out on it, waiting for
"debris" so that more garbage can be put into the models.

To say that "we need some of the 'debris' development from that side of
the Atlantic to kick our own synoptic patterns into a different gear"
is to ignore the holistic idea that far from requiring one spell to
finish with things in one region to knock on the weather rom another
region.

The root cause of all weather is not weather and the weather has no
memory -neither does it instill phenomena elsewhere. It is impossible
for a pneumatic system to compress itself never mind travel with the
compression or expansion other than adiabatically, to supply forces
many miles away.

I am sure I could have written that better. But will you agree that the
dynamics require ridiculous amounts of input to travel?

The forces involved in the dynamics of a system over a given period can
be measured. The power required to hold that system intact and move
other systems out of the way is not.

At least not with pneumodynamics it isn't. Is it?

*It should have been sunny with not much cloud for these last two
spells.

It will be interesting to see how the next spell will work out. Did I
not warn that there might be some reaction to the (for UK standards)
drought in the SE of England with the spell for August the ninth?

These weather patterns should have occurred:
AUG. 9 10 54 Sunny days and cloudles cool nights with some frosts.
AUG. 16 1 51 Somewhat similar.

And now the weather, which has been wet overall, is due to be wet
overall. So it looks interesting for the next few days too then.
AUG. 23 19 10 Wet and windy.

Better dust off the deck chairs. I could use a breeze though as I
bought some daffs a few weeks back and have not planted them due to the
bloody plague of gnats. Which in keepining with a biblical theme
produced the mark of Moses on my arms.

Cross posted to my favourite newsgroup for the sake of a rather stupid
boy.

NOAA CONTINUES TO PREDICT ABOVE-NORMAL HURRICANE SEASON
 

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Weatherlawyer wrote:
Martin Rowley wrote:

It is noticeable that we have not got the marked (and reasonably large)
'warm patch' just east of the Lesser Antilles, though the NOAA statement
says that the sea temperatures are still generally above average. There
is a complication, as I understand that the climatology used for these
anomaly maps has changed, and of course whether or not fully-formed T/S
develop is not just a case of lifting the SST's etc.

I must say that the stuff I do has been all to cock whilst the NAO is
negative so there is a silver lining over this side of the pond too*.
The soil in my garden is still bone dry a few inches down. Though that
may be because I am only looking at the parts where I have nothing
growing.

It will be interesting to see how this year's Hurricane season works
out, as in my mind, we need some of the 'debris' development from that
side of the Atlantic to kick our own synoptic patterns into a different
gear: it's all got a bit 'stuck' at the moment!

This sounds a little like complacency. There have been a number of
misty days here with no appreciable Extra Tropical Storms forming. Last
year the phenomenae were intimately linked.

This season is very much an experience to be savoured. I can't help but
think that more than one or two here are missing out on it, waiting for
"debris" so that more garbage can be put into the models.

To say that "we need some of the 'debris' development from that side of
the Atlantic to kick our own synoptic patterns into a different gear"
is to ignore the holistic idea that far from requiring one spell to
finish with things in one region to knock on the weather rom another
region.

The root cause of all weather is not weather and the weather has no
memory -neither does it instill phenomena elsewhere. It is impossible
for a pneumatic system to compress itself never mind travel with the
compression or expansion other than adiabatically, to supply forces
many miles away.

I am sure I could have written that better. But will you agree that the
dynamics require ridiculous amounts of input to travel?

The forces involved in the dynamics of a system over a given period can
be measured. The power required to hold that system intact and move
other systems out of the way is not.

At least not with pneumodynamics it isn't. Is it?

*It should have been sunny with not much cloud for these last two
spells.

It will be interesting to see how the next spell will work out. Did I
not warn that there might be some reaction to the (for UK standards)
drought in the SE of England with the spell for August the ninth?

These weather patterns should have occurred:
AUG. 9 10 54 Sunny days and cloudles cool nights with some frosts.
AUG. 16 1 51 Somewhat similar.

And now the weather, which has been wet overall, is due to be wet
overall. So it looks interesting for the next few days too then.
AUG. 23 19 10 Wet and windy.

Better dust off the deck chairs. I could use a breeze though as I
bought some daffs a few weeks back and have not planted them due to the
bloody plague of gnats. Which in keepining with a biblical theme
produced the mark of Moses on my arms.

Cross posted to my favourite newsgroup for the sake of a rather stupid boy.

I don't know any better than to suggest that with a 7.1M (In Scotia
sea??? and a Low of some 998 and an High of 1027; the negative North
Atlantic Oscillation is over.

However the weather is fine (as it should be for the time of the phase;
as it should have been for a week and more) and there is bad weathe
due.

So time for some blind guesswork:

If the weather is still of the dry variety from the 26th, there will be
yet more earthquakes with a 7 or 7+ magnitude. And some hurricane
activity.

Either that or there will be massive volcanic eruptions.

But.

If the weather is wet from the 26th on, then the NOA is positive and
the seismic fronts will remain placid.

And her is the kicker. An unusual spell as far as my observations go:

We have just had two similar spells and the next one should be
different. This produces hurricanses and earthquakes in a positive NAO.

Ah; what a bitch!

I remember when I used to think that ridges, cols and troughs were a
pain in the arse. Those were the good old days.