This looks like it was already set up at around midnight.
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

So is this how it is supposed to look all through this spell? A Low
over Michigan heading nowhere and all the western states looking at
drought again?

I wonder if they have simple weather like this all the time. Looks
dead easy to forecast.

Looks like the end of the frost for us. Maybe goodbye to the mists
too:
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm

Note the correction.

On Dec 24, 9:17 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Looks like the end of the frost for us. Maybe goodbye to the mists
too:http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm

Note the correction.

This is a link to an spread sheet that contains dates of relatively
similar timed phases:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...p3UiFzkpUhSUEQ

Column D has the dates of the spell and times of the lunar phases.

I have included the times that are near 01:17 to within about an half
hour as wellas the ones some 12 hours different to the same
approximation.

I have this time also included the ones that are some 6 hours
different. This has produced several interesting synergetic runs. Some
consecutive and some with a gap of one spell.

It remains to be seen how much effect the following phases have on the
main body of a spell. It has obvious repercussions on the end of one,
just as the time of the preceding one will have given rise to systems
that take some time to fade.

But then they also show up as corrections on such charts as above.

Taken from column D in:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...p3UiFzkpUhSUEQ

24 Jan to 1 Feb 13:07*****
I marked closely matching ones, that I am going to look at, with 5
asterisks.
They occur at similar times of the year to the present spell, too.

8 to 15 Feb 07:12
25 Mar to1 Apr 01:21
7 to 15 May 13:53
6 to 14 Jun 01:39
20 to 27 Jul 19:44
12 to 19 Aug 07:53
10 to 17 Sept 19:00
2 to 10 Oct 13:49
16 to 24 Oct 19:23
7 to 14 Dec 19:52

2002

13 to 21 Jan 13:29*****
4 to 12 Feb 13:33
12 to 20 Feb 07:41
6 to 14 Mar 01:25
12 to 20 Apr 19:21
4 to 12 May 07:16
19 to 26 May 19:42
8 to 15 Aug 19:15
21 to 29 Oct 07:20
20 to 27 Nov 01:34
4 to 11 Dec 07:34
19 to 27 Dec 19:10

2003

10 to 18 Jan 13:15*****
11 to 18 Mar 07:15
25 Mar to 1 Apr 01:51
1 to 9 Apr 19:19
16 to 23 Apr 19:36
13 to 21 Jul 19:21
21 to 29 Jul 07:01
29 Jul to 1 Aug 06:53
5 to 12 Aug 07:28
18 to 26 Sept 19:03
2 to 10 Oct 19:09
10 to 18 Oct 07:27
25 Oct to 1 Nov 12:50
9 to 17 Nov 01:14

2004

13 to 20 Feb 13:40
19 to 27 Apr 13:21
27 May to 3 Jun 07:57
25 Jun to 2 Jul 19:08
9 to 17 Jul 07:34
16 to 23 Aug 01:24
28 Sept to 6 Oct 13:09
12 to 18 Dec 01:29

2005

2 to 8 Feb 07:27
17 to 25 Mar 19:19
15 to 22 Jun 01:22
10 to 17 Oct 19:01
25 Oct to 2 Nov 01:17*
2 to 9 Nov 01:25*
9 to 16 Nov 01:57*
The above is a run of very similar phases.

16 to 23 Nov 00:58
23 to 31 Dec 19:36

2006

21 to 28 Feb 07:17**
This oine is for a control.

22 to 29 Mar 19:10
27 Apr to 5 May 19:44
17 to 25 Jul 19:13
16 to 23 Aug 01:51
23 to 31 Aug 19:10

2007

3 to 11 Jan 13:57
I think I should have ditched the above.

24 Feb to 3 Mar 07:56
16 to 23 May 19:27
1 to 8 Jun 01:04
22 to 30 Jun 13:15
30 Jun to 7 Jul 13:49
24 to 31 Dec 01:16
31 Dec 07:51

2003

10 to 18 Jan. Time of phase: 13:15.

The lead into this spell was remarkably similar to last week's cold
anticyclonic:

"High pressure centred over or near northern Britain from the 4th to
the 11th brought cold and mostly dry weather with long sunny periods.
However, troughs in the northeasterly airflow over England and Wales
brought some snow, chiefly to the eastern half of England between the
6th and 8th.

Some 8-12cm of snow fell in southwest Essex and northwest Kent - the
most in the area since early-December 1997. Very severe frosts
occurred in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and on the 8th Aviemore
reported a minimum of -18.6°C and a maximum of -8.8°C."

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0301.htm

Then this happened:

"The anticyclone slipped southwards into France during the 11th-12th,
allowing a broad southwesterly flow to encroach over the British
Isles."

Coincidence?

"Sunny but frosty weather lasted longest in the Southeast, and Redhill
airfield reported -9.9°C early on the 12th, but northern Britain
became mild and rainy.

It stayed cloudy and mild until the 18th with prolonged heavy rain
over west-facing slopes especially in Scotland, including a fall of
73mm in 48hr at Dalmally (Argyllshire) on the 12th-13th.

Gusts over 70kn were recorded in Scotland on the 15th.

A deep depression drifted slowly east across England and Wales
bringing four days of heavy rain between the 18th and 21st, but a
strong rise of pressure thereafter provided a few days of quieter
weather.

October 2005
http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0511.htm

"This exceptional month was dominated by winds from a southerly
quarter almost throughout.

With pressure now high over eastern Europe a mainly southerly type
persisted until the 18th, although a vigorous frontal trough moved
very slowly eastwards across the UK between the 11th and 13th,
followed by a sharp but short-lived rise in pressure.

Torrential rain in many western districts led to serious but short-
lived flooding, notably in Wales and Cumbria.

A trough advanced across the country from the southwest on the 19th,
introducing a cyclonic spell which lasted until the 25th. Rain fell
frequently and often heavily, and hail and thunder occurred in many
places.

Some 68mm of rain reportedly fell at Ottery St Mary (Devon) on the
19th. It became somewhat colder for a few days in Scotland with some
hill snow.

Further flooding was reported on the 24th, notably in Northern Ireland
[and Wales] between the 23rd and 25th."

[A massive Atlantic hurricane ( Wilma-05) ran from15th to 25th
October.. I'm not sure when it became a category 5 but it changed the
power of the spell from a mere wet and warm one to one with thunder
in. That's a knock back of 4 hours in the phase.]

"A broad SSW-ly flow brought tropical air from unusually low latitudes
during the last seven days of the month. The weather was warm but
largely cloudy with rain at times, heavy in the north and west, but
the 27th was notably sunny. The 31st was wet in the Southeast and East
Anglia."

[Two major tropical cyclones were running at the month's end:
27th to31st October.. Cyclone category 3. BETA-05. Atlantic and 29th
October to 2nd November.. Cyclone category 2. KAI-TAK-05. NW Pacific.

If the knock back is 4 hours for a Cat 5 and a Cat 1 is nearly zero,
then the knock back on these was 2 hours for the first and 1 hour for
the second at their respective heights.]

25 Oct to 2 Nov 01:17
2 to 9 Nov 01:25

5 Oct to 2 Nov 01:17
2 to 9 Nov 01:25
9 to 16 Nov 01:57
16 to 23 Nov 00:58

November 2005:

"A cyclonic/southwesterly regime prevailed throughout the first twelve
days, but from the 13th onwards anticyclonic and northerly types were
dominant.

With such contrasting episodes, the sea-level pressure anomaly field
over Europe and the Atlantic was relatively weak.

After a bright first day, the 2nd brought rain and strong winds to all
areas but it was exceptionally mild.

Another frontal system brought heavy rain to western and northern
districts on the 5th and 6th, then two intense secondary depressions
swept past the UK's north western seaboard on the 7th/8th and 11th/
12th, the wind gusting to 80-90kn in the Western Isles on both
occasions.

Heavy orographic rain [think moist warm air forced to rise over
mountains and cool thus losing water] recurred, with 76mm at Capel
Curig (Snowdonia) on the former occasion and 101mm at Cassley
(Sutherland) on the latter, but between these two systems all regions
were mostly dry and sunny on the 9th. It remained warm with highs of
14-17°C on several days.

The briefest of northerly outbreaks was followed by a strong but short-
lived build of pressure across the British Isles on the 13th and 14th,
and this brought a general drop in temperature with frost by night and
plentiful sunshine by day.

Another northerly outbreak between the 15th and 17th preceded a
prolonged rise in pressure which saw the establishment of a large
anticyclone over the UK from the 18th-23rd."

Without knowing the exact dates that Bolaven and more importantly
Bertie were at their height, it's not possible to say when they
affected the lunar spells the most.
However they were running on:

13th to 20th November. Category 1. Bolaven in the NW Pacific and
19th to 26th November. Category 4. Bertie in the SE Indian ocean.

There were snow showers in Scotland on the 16th, otherwise this was a
period of cold, settled weather with frosty nights and sunny days.

At night temperatures fell widely to between -5 and -8°C on the 19th.
Freezing fog formed widely from the 19th onwards, persisting all day
in places, and at Pershore (Worcs) the temperature remained below zero
from sunset on the 18th to daybreak on the 21st.

Elsewhere, many places had five or six consecutive days of unbroken
sunshine, and Hastings logged 67 hours of sunshine in the 10-day
period 13th-22nd.

The anticyclone withdrew to mid-Atlantic on the 24th as a vigorous
cold front swept southwards across the country, introducing a
northerly flow which lasted until the 29th.

The front on the 24th was associated with hail, thunder, violent
squalls, and a near-instantaneous temperature drop of 5-8 degC.

The next day, heavy snow fell widely in the northern half of Scotland
(20cm at Glenlivet), Northern Ireland, Wales, Devon and Cornwall, and
hundreds of motorists were stranded overnight on Bodmin Moor following
an accident which blocked the A30.

The next two days were slightly less cold and rain fell rather than
snow, including a fall of 70mm in 48 hours at Boulmer
(Northumberland).

Snow returned on the 28th, affecting chiefly Yorkshire, Lancashire and
the Midlands. It became somewhat less cold on the 30th as the wind
backed westerly and rain approached from the Atlantic.

The first half of November was the warmest since 1994 (temperatures
2.0-2.5 deg C above normal), while the second half was the coldest
since 1993 (3.5-4.0 degC below normal).

It was a dry month in most eastern and some southern districts, with
less than 30mm of rain over much of Lincolnshire, East Anglia and
Kent, but monthly totals were rather above average in northern and
western Scotland, north west England, Wales and Cornwall.

Sunshine aggregates were above normal practically everywhere, and
approached twice the long-term mean locally in north east England and
the Midlands. Averaged over England and Wales this was easily the
sunniest November in a record stretching back to 1881.

http://www.climate-uk.com/monthly/0511.htm

Ah well, since there isn't a storm of any sort extant this spell so
far, I suppose it all moot.

On Dec 24, 9:17 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
This looks like it was already set up at around midnight.http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

So is this how it is supposed to look all through this spell? A Low
over Michigan heading nowhere and all the western states looking at
drought again?

Snow storms in the central US have left at least 22 people dead and
tens of thousands without electricity, the Associated Press news
agency reports.

Hundreds of accidents were reported as far south as Texas, where there
was a 50-vehicle motorway pile-up.

The storm has also felled trees and power lines and caused the
cancellation of hundreds of flights.

More heavy snow has been forecast as the storms move into the Great
Lakes region bordering Canada.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7158691.stm

On Dec 25, 8:18 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Dec 24, 9:17 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

This looks like it was already set up at around midnight.http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

So is this how it is supposed to look all through this spell? A Low
over Michigan heading nowhere and all the western states looking at
drought again?

Snow storms in the central US have left at least 22 people dead and
tens of thousands without electricity, the Associated Press news
agency reports.
..http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7158691.stm

http://weather.unisys.com/
6.0 M NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

I'd much rather be a rain god than an angel of death. Unfortunately,
when one gets to choose ones parents there is precious little choice
involved.

At least 36 people have died in landslides in Indonesia, which hit an
area of central Java after hours of heavy rain, officials have said.

Rescue workers say the death toll is likely to rise, with varying
reports saying 50 to 60 people are buried.

Rescue workers and police are struggling to reach the affected areas
as roads are cut off.

Heavy rains regularly cause landslides and flash floods in Indonesia.
Many experts say deforestation is to blame.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asi...ic/7160138.stm

That Philadelphian is still hanging in on he

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm