03:55
 

So here we go with the next one.: 6 to 12 April 2008, 03:55. Want to
bet them damned Yanks already started on it yesiddy?

Still no 5M quakes since:
Update time = Sun Apr 6 2:18:04 UTC 2008

5.0 2008/04/04 13:30 Kuril Islands.

Looks like they are in for a bucketful for the next few days eh?
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

4 + 6 is 10 right?

03:55
 

On Apr 6, 3:45 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
So here we go with the next one.: 6 to 12 April 2008, 03:55. Want to
bet them damned Yanks already started on it yesiddy?

Still no 5M quakes since:
Update time = Sun Apr 6 2:18:04 UTC 2008

5.0 2008/04/04 13:30 Kuril Islands.

Looks like they are in for a bucketful for the next few days eh?http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

4 + 6 is 10 right?

Right then lesseee...
Would you believe I have forgotten what these were like:

Feb 7 03:44 Feb 14 03:34 Feb 21 03:31

Then there's these:
Dec 17 10:17
Nov 17 22:32
Oct 3 10:06

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

I may have forgotten but they are all available with comments, just
search this group for the respective times.

But let's have a guess; provided no storms occur, they will be the
same as for last week.
With snow.
Hmmm...

03:55
 

I should be in bed. But something is niggling at me.

Cyclones.
Get an old envelope with one of those cellophane windows in it. Draw a
circle on that and mark it with arrows.

The top one points to the wall on your left the middle points to the
floor and the bottom to the room next door. A cyclone.

Hold it up to the light and turn it around. The top one points to the
bookcase behind you. The middle one to the floor. The bottom one
points to the window and the middle to the ceiling. An anticyclone.

Within the constraints that I don't know the place from which the
waves induced in the planet emanate, one might imagine it has
something to do with earth's barycentre.

In which cased it is logical to assume that in the absence of an over-
reaction on one side of the planet, the harmonic will appear as a
cyclone on one side of it while it appears as an anticyclone on the
other.

Or not, as the case may be.

The thing is, how does it flash on and off? And why does it turn into
earthquakes one cycle and volcanoes another?
Man, this stuff blows my head away. The more you find out, the less
you know.

And the more you find out the less you know, the more you tend to
find. Or to put it another way: The more confidence you have, the more
you can predict. But the more you can predict the more you are likely
to get it all wrong.

So that the less confidence you have, the more you tend to learn and
then the more you learn... the.....

Hold it up to the light and tell me which direction this thing is
going!
Somebody... please...

03:55
 

5.0 2008/04/06 07:23 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.0 2008/04/04 13:30 KURIL ISLANDS

Been a long break.
I can't see anything I can identify as a cause or a result on these:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/l...0033&number=14
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/l...0032&number=14
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm
http://meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

There is an extensive High on the Canadian model. It's the size of
Canada. I am so used to looking at Lows that I can't tell what this
means.
Besides snow in England that is.

03:55
 

On Apr 6, 1:46 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
5.0 2008/04/06 07:23 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.0 2008/04/04 13:30 KURIL ISLANDS

Been a long break.
I can't see anything I can identify as a cause or a result on these:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/l...sis/947_50.gif

There is an extensive High on the Canadian model. It's the size of
Canada. I am so used to looking at Lows that I can't tell what this
means.
Besides snow in England that is.

The high is elongating but also seems to be building, as is the one in
the E Pacific (US/Canadian side.) There hasn't been a quake of ot
greater than mag 5 in a while.

And that could indicate that the pressure systems need to leave the
mainland before there is an earthquake. Just floating the ideas of
course. I leave all the hard and fast rules to the likes of Aidan
Karley.

Whose successes have become the stuff of stuffing:
http://groups.google.com/groups/sear...gk&scorin g=d

03:55
 

On Apr 7, 5:05 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 6, 1:46 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

5.0 2008/04/06 07:23 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
5.0 2008/04/04 13:30 KURIL ISLANDS

Been a long break.
I can't see anything I can identify as a cause or a result on these:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/l...DCODE=IDX0033&...

There is an extensive High on the Canadian model. It's the size of
Canada. I am so used to looking at Lows that I can't tell what this
means.
Besides snow in England that is.

The high is elongating but also seems to be building, as is the one in
the E Pacific (US/Canadian side.) There hasn't been a quake of ot
greater than mag 5 in a while.

And that could indicate that the pressure systems need to leave the
mainland before there is an earthquake. Just floating the ideas of course.

5.6 2008/04/07 22:54 -20.1 168.5 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/06 21:01 -28.7 -178.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS

Another one of these.
And still no major storm.

However earlier ... yesterday.. there was a forecast for frost in the
UK this morning. So there is something brewing. Pressures seem to have
topped up a bit for Lows while Highs, though still extensive, are no
longer full to bursting.

03:55
 

On Apr 5, 8:57*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I should be in bed. But something is niggling at me.

Cyclones.

Here's a little known tid bit of rareatee. What do you get when you
arrange a face to face
fame war with Hillary and Barac? A cyclone.

Get an old envelope with one of those cellophane windows in it. Draw a
circle on that and mark it with arrows.

The top one points to the wall on your left the middle points to the
floor and the bottom to the room next door. A cyclone.

Hold it up to the light and turn it around. The top one points to the
bookcase behind you. The middle one to the floor. The bottom one
points to the window and the middle to the ceiling. An anticyclone.

Within the constraints that I don't know the place from which the
waves induced in the planet emanate, one might imagine it has
something to do with earth's barycentre.

In which cased it is logical to assume that in the absence of an over-
reaction on one side of the planet, the harmonic will appear as a
cyclone on one side of it while it appears as an anticyclone on the
other.

Or not, as the case may be.

The thing is, how does it flash on and off? And why does it turn into
earthquakes one cycle and volcanoes another?
Man, this stuff blows my head away. The more you find out, the less
you know.

And the more you find out the less you know, the more you tend to
find. Or to put it another way: The more confidence you have, the more
you can predict. But the more you can predict the more you are likely
to get it all wrong.

So that the less confidence you have, the more you tend to learn and
then the more you learn... the.....

Hold it up to the light and tell me which direction this thing is
going!
Somebody... please...

03:55
 

Gitchie gitchie goo goo ya ya.

03:55
 

Saint Isadore Patron Saint of the Internet wrote in
:

Gitchie gitchie goo goo ya ya.

Now that makes sense!!!

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

03:55
 

I wouldn't mind betting there is quite an interesting periodicity in
all this when the relevant interactive effects are plotted in. One
that will show that rather than cyclones progressing toward the North
Pole, they move up and down like blobs in a lava lamp.

Difficult to prove of coourse. And it doesn't help that synoptic
charts for Asia are missing Russian and Chinese resources. If I could
find them I recon I'd be home and dry inside a year.

Certain basics still apply no matter how much spin the various low
Pressure areas impart to the overall model. Nor how much the various
blocking Highs detract from the rotation.

In fact I think it might be the way these extra powerful storms or
unusually large, deep highs behaves that allows the timing of these
overall cycles to be plotted overall as cycles.

There always seems to be this movement of cyclonic weather west to
east over the USA at lunar phase times like these, for example.

And then there comes the blocking high as regions of High pressure
that tend to occur with them in the centre of the continent are
prevented from leaving to join the Bermuda High. These instead go
north to the channel called the Davis Straight and build over
Greenland.

Since the tendency is then not very low Los in the North Atlantic, why
don't they go into the Arctic?

Or is the fact they ARE blocking Highs the reason that the Lows are
not that low?

Whatever the principle thew factual is that the blocking high extends
down to something Liek 40 to 30 North eventually and sooner or later
there is a Low parcel that breaks through at the 60 to 70 th parallel.

It's always the same way. Probably there is always the same
geophenomena too such as snow in Britain -which would explain its
rarity and presence occasionally in summer.

And volcanic eruptions which would explain the coincidence with Lows
of 1000 1010 when such eruptions occur. (If I am right. I notice that
I have attracted fleas to my once more. They seem to love to join in
when things get vicious. Serves me right for casual caustic
irrelevances I suppose.)

But if I am wrong, these same detractors should be able to do my
research for me should they not. And thus have real dirt to enlighten
me with.

I suppose I aught to pull my finger out and do it myself. But I only
do this sort of thing for pleasure. I don't like the paperwork
involved. I don't wish to prove me correct.

I prefer to just wait and see. I am a thaumaturge. If I was a
meteorologist or a geologist I would feel constrained to dig a little
deeper. And I would expect to get paid for it. Things take on a new
light when you have to turn up to work every day and find things to do
so that people will give you money.

The onus isn't there when you sit at home pointing out the obvious and
attempt to string it all together. But then what are enemies for if
not to judge you?

Let them do it if it is possible. And if I am right, keep silent on
that matter.

03:55
 

On Apr 8, 8:47 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I wouldn't mind betting there is quite an interesting periodicity in
all this when the relevant interactive effects are plotted in. One
that will show that rather than cyclones progressing toward the North
Pole, they move up and down like blobs in a lava lamp.

Difficult to prove of course. And it doesn't help that synoptic
charts for Asia are missing Russian and Chinese resources. If I could
find them I reckon I'd be home and dry inside a year.

Certain basics still apply no matter how much spin the various Low
Pressure Areas impart to the overall model. Nor how much the various
Blocking Highs detract from that rotation.

In fact I think it might be the way that extra powerful storms or
unusually large, deep "blocking" highs behave that allows the timing of these
overall cycles to be plotted overall as such.

There always seems to be this movement of cyclonic weather west to
east over the USA at lunar phase times like these for example.

(When the time of the phase is at or near 4 or 10 o'clock. As it was
in February last.)

And then there comes the blocking high as regions of High pressure
that tend to occur with them in the centre of the continent are
prevented from leaving to join the Bermuda High.

What the USAns in their ignorance call the Azores High. Bermuda: A
group of islands in the Atlantic, 580 miles east of North Carolina,
once a British colony. The Azores is a group of islands in the N
Atlantic, west of Portugal. Though some would argue that Portugal
extends that far, The Acores having being discovered that long ago.

I'll tell you what if it encompasses both the Azores and Bermudas then
it is a bloody big High. It probably refers to the latitude more than
the location. Perhaps in the same way that the Icelandic low is a
stream of cyclones that move from Newfoundland to Norway when the Time
Of Spell is 1 or 7 o'clock.

I will have to check on how large and where exactly the Bermuda/Azores
high tends on such occasions.

These instead go north to the channel called the Davis Straight and
build over Greenland.

Since the tendency is then not very low Lows in the North Atlantic, why
don't they go into the Arctic?

Correction:
Since the tendency on such occasions is not very low Lows in the North
Atlantic, why don't these Lows go into the Arctic?

They can penetrate the Polar Circle and do but not, it seems, on these
occasions. In fact I get the impression that Polar Lows are the norm
in most cases but in all the above cases the North Pole has an High
across it.

Unless a diligent pupil can prove me wrong. (Hint: I now use a kill
file so I might not get to see it.)

Lows will eventually break the high as it over-extends. On this
occasion and I think, in most of them this is with the Icelandic Low.
However after a tropical storm the tendency is for Lows and Highs to
be flaccid and the remains of an Atlantic tropical storm to be routed
north through the Norwegian Sea into the Arctic.

Or is the fact they ARE blocking Highs the reason that the Lows are
not that low?

As an experiment let us presume that cyclogenesis in the USA is a
phenomenon that occurs with Polar Highs. From the above, that is a
given, a constant.

In which case further cyclogenesis whatever the season, will occur
with the same condition. And these conditions are a feature of these
lunar phase times.

(I really must invent a non TLW for this phrase. Luphate, no. TOLPh?
Let's see if I can make a more appropriate one. TOSH = time of
spell...I don't know. TOPS time of phase/spell; obvious that one.

TOSH from the words Trash and Bosh = empty rubbish: Time Of Spell/
Harmonic. That'll do!)

Whatever the principle, the factual is that the Blocking High extends
down to something Like 40 to 30 North eventually and sooner or later
there is a Low parcel that breaks through at the 60 to 70th parallel.

It's always the same way. Probably there is always the same
geophenomena too, such as snow in Britain -which would explain its
rarity and presence occasionally in summer.

And volcanic eruptions -which would explain the coincidence with Lows
of 1000 1010 when such eruptions occur.

I wonder if and/or how this applies in the North Pacific.

And I wonder at the absence of tropical storms at the moment.

03:55
 

In article , Skywise wrote:
Gitchie gitchie goo goo ya ya.

Now that makes sense!!!

Comparatively.
Which reminds me to subscribe to rec.foods.cooking

--
Aidan Karley, FGS
Aberdeen, Scotland
Message written at Tue, 08 Apr 2008 12:24 +0100, now I'm back on
shore.

03:55
 

Still no deep lows and now the Unisys site has gone on the blink:
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

Completely off topic rant:
The BBC has just posted some Intel propaganda about the OLPC as if the
XO market arrangements were any competition for Chipzilla.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7334518.stm

I wouldn't bother only I happen to know a certain party in the Beeb is
following my ravings avidly.

Unfortunately he is most unlikely to say or do anything about it, in
case it pleased me.

Back to business:
There looks to be a stretch of High pressure either all the way across
the n Pacific or just getting the
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

IIRlast time we had a sizeable earthquake shortly after. It was only a
few weeks back but I forget when. It's got to be one of them:

2008 03 03 - Philippine Islands region - M 6.9
2008 02 25 - Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia - M 7.0
2008 02 23 - South Sandwich Islands region - M 6.7
2008 02 20 - Simeulue, Indonesia - M 7.4 Fatalities 3
2008 02 14 - Southern Greece - M 6.9
2008 02 08 - Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge - M 6.9

03:55
 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html
Tornadoes seem to be a pretty constant feature of these spells. Sorry
I can't offer assistance. I wonder if this sort of stuff could lend
itself to storm chasing. I doubt it though as it barely comes down to
mesoscale* events.

(*From a few streets away to what you might see from a tower. Which is
what you'd need to do for storm chases.)

I couldn't even say what state to expect it, just about get the
country right sometimes. It would be good for planning a few days off
though. And if you followed these things as they played out in your
location for long enough, you might get a good handle on things.

03:55
 

2008/04/09. Loyalty Islands.

5.1 M. 16:02
6.0 M. 14:47
5.4 M. 14:21
5.4 M. 14:11
5.2 M. 13:03
7.3 M. 12:46
6.3 M. 11:23
6.4 M. 11:13

Perhaps now the weather will change. There are still three days to go
with this spell though. But at least it should get a little more like
April.

Ah to be in England. Now's the time.

03:55
 

On Apr 9, 7:10 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
2008/04/09. Loyalty Islands.

5.1 M. 16:02
6.0 M. 14:47
5.4 M. 14:21
5.4 M. 14:11
5.2 M. 13:03
7.3 M. 12:46
6.3 M. 11:23
6.4 M. 11:13

Perhaps now the weather will change. There are still three days to go
with this spell though. But at least it should get a little more like
April.

Ah to be in England. Now's the time.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

Oddly things don't appear to have changed at all. In fact things seem
to have heightened/worsened.

An high pressure system that extended from the North Atlantic to the
North Pole is now extended right through into Asia covering some 90
degrees.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

The cyclogenesis that has been running in waves across the USA over
the last few week has stalled over the central southern states:

http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

Texas and Arkansas has copped for quite a bowlful:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

So either the synoptic charts are in error and/or have not been
correctly or quickly updated.
Or:

There is more of this to come.
I suspect the latter.

Tied in with this previous post:
On Apr 8, 3:04 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 7, 5:05 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 6, 1:46 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

5.0 2008/04/06 07:23 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/04 13:30 KURIL ISLANDS

Been a long break.
I can't see anything I can identify as a cause or a result on these:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/l...DCODE=IDX0033&...

There is an extensive High on the Canadian model. It's the size of
Canada. I am so used to looking at Lows that I can't tell what this
means.
Besides snow in England that is.

The high is elongating but also seems to be building, as is the one in
the E Pacific (US/Canadian side.) There hasn't been a quake of or
greater than mag 5 in a while.

And that could indicate that the pressure systems need to leave the
mainland before there is an earthquake. Just floating the ideas of course.

5.6 2008/04/07 22:54 -20.1 168.5 LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.0 2008/04/06 21:01 -28.7 -178.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS

Another one of these.
And still no major storm.

However earlier ... yesterday.. there was a forecast for frost in the
UK this morning. So there is something brewing. Pressures seem to have
topped up a bit for Lows while Highs, though still extensive, are no
longer full to bursting.

Interesting, no?

03:55
 

Taking 6 as a denominator in the way that the hours are counted around
the globe, I matched the following phases thus:

29 Mar 21:47 = 04:00
6 Apr 03:55 = 04:00
12 Apr 18:32 = 06:30
20 Apr 10:25 = 04:30
28 Apr 14:12 = 02:30

Since the phase from the 12th is generally one that performs much like
this; cool and damp with an overcast of low cloud and/or mist in
Britain, I have no strong reason to suspect it will change much in the
next few days.

And then having this weather run through to the 20th, it comes back to
pretty nearly the same as the first two phases of April. Which appears
to be ones of tornadoes in the US and volcanic eruptions in Hawaii,
among others:

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/us...ontent=archive

What right have I got to reduce the times with such a denominator?
None. Save that it makes for easy comparison. And it works.

So having defined the phases for tornadic events in the USA. Let's
have a look at what might prove to be the spells for Derechos there
and tornadoes in the UK:
28 Apr 14:12 = 02:30

Phases that fall on such times seem to produce very marked striations
in clouds. Search for yourselves and prove me wrong.

03:55
 

On Apr 10, 2:08 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

29 Mar 21:47 = 04:00
6 Apr 03:55 = 04:00
12 Apr 18:32 = 06:30
20 Apr 10:25 = 04:30
28 Apr 14:12 = 02:30

Since the phase from the 12th is generally one that performs much like
this; cool and damp with an overcast of low cloud and/or mist in
Britain, I have no strong reason to suspect it will change much in the
next few days.

And the worst thing is that there is more to come if the previous
indicators from most of the other spells has anything to do with it.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html showed a pretty
bad series of events for the 10th and the reports from the day before
were no better. Today is the 11th and it seems the start of events for
the spell that doesn't get going until the 12th in the UK, is under
way in North America.

Things look pretty bad from Texas to the Great Lakes.

One more thing, the Unisys site was down yesterday until about 8 PM. I
know that the primary role of satellites that are controlled by NASA
and other countries is military. And maybe events concerning the
Olympics had them exercised but it does happen around the time of a
large mag quake, that data coming from US universities gets clobbered.

I first noticed the coincidence with that Wisconsin world weather
graphic:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/

Maybe next time I aught to check the other out when one falls over.
Once being a tragedy, twice something of a coincidence, perhaps.

03:55
 

5.0 03:16 16.058 144.855 ANATAHAN
5.0 02:23 16.179 144.837 ANATAHAN
5.0 01:28 15.978 145.024 SAIPAN

All for 2008/04/11 and all at Mariana Islands.
I wish I could remember what I said about this coincidental a few
weeks back.

I can't remember whether I said it was significant to the start or the
end of a tropical storm. Either way, there hasn't been one to apply it
to.

This is becoming an habit.

03:55
 

On Apr 11, 6:00 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

5.0 03:16 16.058 144.855 ANATAHAN
5.0 02:23 16.179 144.837 ANATAHAN

All for 2008/04/11 and all at Mariana Islands.
I wish I could remember what I said about this coincidental a few
weeks back.

I can't remember whether I said it was significant to the start or the end
of a tropical storm. Either way, there hasn't been one to apply it to.

This is becoming an habit.

Tempus fugit.
I was going to post about the presence of another set of matches
yesterday but not seeing any import, got side tracked.
Observe:

5.1 2008/04/12 07:03 -55.560 158.356 Macquarie Island region.
5.7 2008/04/12 00:46 43.930 147.470 Kuril Islands.
7.1 2008/04/12 00:30 -55.681 158.527 Macquarie Island region.

5.9 2008/04/11 17:45 -20.336 168.806 Loyalty Islands.
5.4 2008/04/11 16:35 -20.444 168.854 Loyalty Islands.
5.1 2008/04/11 15:54 -20.317 168.862 Loyalty Islands.

5.1 2008/04/11 09:56 16.195 145.034 Anatahan reg., Northern Marianas.
5.5 2008/04/11 05:02 16.194 144.902 Anatahan reg., Northern Marianas.

5.0 2008/04/11 04:17 -20.460 168.799 Loyalty Islands.

5.5 2008/04/11 03:16 16.118 144.943 Anatahan reg., Northern Marianas.
5.3 2008/04/11 02:23 16.188 144.950 Anatahan reg., Northern Marianas.

There is more than just the obvious in there but I don't know what it
is. Something about the sequence. Maybe this could hold a clue:

"A geophysicist publishing in the 1 August PRL (2003) suggests that
small earthquakes collectively trigger more aftershocks than do less
frequent, larger temblors, according to earthquake records. She also
proposes a new connection between the arrangement of earthquakes
around a fault and the number of aftershocks."

http://focus.aps.org/story/v12/st6

I was expecting that a change of spell should have followed the
previous 7M. However I also realised it was still well within the
parameters of a spell with a few days to produce another. The Arctic
High had not moved at all. Some change in shape but still pretty
dominant.

The Unisys site is now showing the Low /storm centre that raged over
the mid-west, is now on the coast of N America -rather a classic
Newfoundlander at that. It should bowl through at 60/70 degrees N. But
that High is in the way.

Still, today is the start of a new spell. And believe it or not I
really have forgotten what tenet I came up with for a couple of 5M or
larger in the same place consecutively.

Which might be just as well perhaps, since it will give me a clean
slate while watching developments.