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-   -   10:25 (https://www.weather-banter.co.uk/alt-talk-weather-general-weather-talk/123977-10-25-a.html)

Weatherlawyer April 19th 08 01:26 PM

10:25
 
FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.

10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
Pity.

However those that remained alert were able to take appropriate steps
and save both themselves and their families. The odd thing was that
those most at variance with the sophisticated academic vision of
elementary geophysics fared better that those too wrapped up in their
own cleverness to do anything about it.

Meanwhile, for the next spell:
April 20th to 28th the lunar phase occurs at 10:25. And that puts it
into the same league as the spell for 14th to 21st Mar 10:46.

So more of the same, which IIRC stated last time with a storm east of
Australia. I believe that faded when an stronger one on the other side
started.
And all sorts of nasty things occurred in the south eastern states of
the US&A.

Look out for a large High confluence in the NE Pacific. It could
extend to the North Pole but is likely to be cut through by a trough
of low pressure.

So...
Here's to interesting times. And always remember:
You are on your own.

Weatherlawyer April 19th 08 10:16 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 19, 2:26 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.

10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.
Pity.

However those that remained alert were able to take appropriate steps
and save both themselves and their families. The odd thing was that
those most at variance with the sophisticated academic vision of
elementary geophysics fared better that those too wrapped up in their
own cleverness to do anything about it.

Meanwhile, for the next spell:
April 20th to 28th the lunar phase occurs at 10:25. And that puts it
into the same league as the spell for 14th to 21st Mar 10:46.

So more of the same, which IIRC stated last time with a storm east of
Australia. I believe that faded when an stronger one on the other side
started.
And all sorts of nasty things occurred in the south eastern states of
the US&A.

Look out for a large High confluence in the NE Pacific. It could
extend to the North Pole but is likely to be cut through by a trough
of low pressure.

So...
Here's to interesting times. And always remember:
You are on your own.


Here is one I prepared earlier:

On Mar 14, 12:30 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Mar 13, 11:11 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

14th to 21st March 2008. The time of the phase is 10:46. Which is
similar to the last phase, in that it should provide anticyclonic
weather.


However things are not working out that way so far.


So here we are 5 minutes into a new spell and things are looking
exactly the same as they did at the start of the last:
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html

I don't know what's going on over Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas and
Louisiana. There is nothing on this site to compare to the yellow
squares on the above site:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

But there is a lot of cyclogenesis (stormy weather) there.

Points to watch out for:

On the NEIC board that lists the dates of recent earthquakes with a
magnitude over 5:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

Look out for a day that reports no such quakes. This is a new thing
learned so it might contain errors but it seems that when there are
violent storms due whose potential inner pressures at sea level are
likely to be as low as the 960's millibars,

.....there is always an hiatus in the list.

I have noticed the hiatus in times past but never made the connection
until looking at the Aussie site he
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/nmoc/l...DCODE=IDX0033&...

And following this warning is a much less gentle one where there will
be two or three consecutive earthquakes on that list that are in
almost the same place. I am not sure where the first series takes
place but the same recurs when the storm is over and the following
seems to apply:

For storms in the South West Indian Ocean, this series seems to be
Vanuatu some 120 degrees distant.

I expect yet more tropical storms and there is still the residue of
the storm that passed through Britain last Monday to fade into the
background too.

That one is at present over Estonia and Latvia, with the one that
crossed Britain a day or so later about to approach Norway both at 990
millibars.

I believe that when they reach 1000 to 1005 mb there will be a large,
maybe a very large earthquake. (As a warning the prelude will be some
uncertain or plain wrong weather forecasting from the various national
agencies.)

Well that's the best I can do so far. Good luck to all involved and
god help the victims. Maybe once the one laptop per child thing gets
going, they might have a fighting chance. Maybe even grow up to
respect their environment and stop the illegal logging.

Let's hope they are not subverted with the hopeless inanity of global
warming whatever else.



Weatherlawyer April 20th 08 06:14 AM

10:25
 
I just found the Australian data archive:
http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/

All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the
enticing culture of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms
of pressure.

Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
Weather Data instead of Synoptics...

Or perhaps if we stopped calling them ******s?

The *******!

Weatherlawyer April 20th 08 06:19 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 20, 7:14 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I just found the Australian data archive:http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/

All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.
Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the
enticing culture of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms
of pressure.

Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
Weather Data instead of Synoptics...


Forgot to add: 27P has gone.

Weatherlawyer April 20th 08 03:46 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 19, 2:26 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.

10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.


I wonder how the people irresponsible for that catastrophe were
treated? If they sacked a man for not killing hundreds of thousands of
people, what could they possibly have done about those that did?

Funny thing in all the follow ups, there were little or no
recriminations.
I imagine in the good old days when the law demanded and eye for an
eye, they'd round up all their families, even the most distant
relatives, all his friends and their families, all the people they did
business with and all their families and execute all them.

And they'd still have come up short.

Weatherlawyer April 20th 08 04:44 PM

10:25
 
The Canadian chart is showing a Low over the mid-western USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...me=00&Type=pnm

It's pretty much a “col“ over the rest of the eastern States, as far
as about 100 degrees west, maybe.
Most of Canada is sitting under an High and there are large Highs
either side of the continent.

Their Northern Hemisphere chart is looking slightly different, with a
Low menacing the NE USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

That chart also shows a High and a Low suitably situated in the
northern North Atlantic just right for a spell full of cold weather
this week, never mind what the better educated may think.

The UK has one half decent TV show that deals with agricultural
interests. Mostly it is geared to a children's style magazine hence
the intake for presenters coming from Blue Peter. But what would one
expect from a self contained quango with a penchant for jessies and
drug abusers?

It's the only place on TV -not counting the regional newscasts which
are lax enough in some areas to allow a view of the North Atlantic
chart. Which almost hardly gets used.

For non UK residents, one can get a glimmer of what it used to be like
before modern technology gave us massive improvements:
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane2nc.htm

Allow me to draw your attention to the writing on the screen, Notice
it is in brown and green? And the predominant colours of the
background?

Well the BBC in its majesty has solved such problems as illegibility
by doing away with all things graphic except the background. Instead
it makes do with us having to believe whatever the presenters tell us
to believe whilst they are waving at what looks like spilled porridge.

They won't tell us how much that set up cost.
I do not wonder why.

And since there is obviously no money in it, the independent services
don't even offer what the BBC does. The Met Office must be demanding
outrageous prices for its services. So why doesn't someone approach
the Canucks? Or even the Chimpistanians? They are their satellites,
after all.

Still I suppose nothing better from a government made up of sock
puppets. And one with a leader who has a tatty, large hole in it at
that, darn it!

Meanwhile:
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2
has a deepening Low situated in the middle of the Atlantic until March
the 8th.

So that should prove interesting, as once March the 8th is past the
Low is scheduled to return..
Or is it?

Weatherlawyer April 20th 08 10:30 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 20, 5:44 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

The Canadian chart is showing a Low over the mid-western USA: http://www..weatheroffice.gc.ca/ense...our=0&Day=0&Ru...

It's pretty much a “col“ over the rest of the eastern States, as far
as about 100 degrees west, maybe.
Most of Canada is sitting under an High and there are large Highs
either side of the continent.

Their Northern Hemisphere chart is looking slightly different, with a
Low menacing the NE USA:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

That chart also shows a High and a Low suitably situated in the
northern North Atlantic just right for a spell full of cold weather
this week, never mind what the better educated may think.


This map was interesting as of the date posted:
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

Red flag. That means fire warnings. Right over the longitude where
that met-man drew the lines. Well done him (or her.)

And floods for the NE States and all along the
Misisssssiisiisiispppsi.

More to come yet.
A lot!

Time that monkey spoke to god again I imagine?

Weatherlawyer April 21st 08 03:23 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 20, 11:30 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

This map was interesting as of the date posted:
http://www.weather.gov/largemap.php

Red flag. That means fire warnings. Right over the longitude where
that met-man drew the lines. Well done him (or her.)


I think that when the data is analysed the actual distances apart will
be more like 15 degrees. That would put it in the same keep as the
Lows that miss Britain by 15 degrees.

The region around the Irish Sea, for instance, will experience far
nicer weather whilst a Low goes past to the north by 15 degrees. Some
other parts of the kingdom will of course be inundated.

Just like in the USA.

I find that sort of thing interesting. Must be because I am a kook.


Weatherlawyer April 21st 08 03:39 AM

10:25
 
Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.

Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?

Weatherlawyer April 21st 08 10:28 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.

Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?


There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:

5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.

Same place.
The storm watchers initially gave that hurricane as two almost
identical Tropical Storms.

Kudos for that bravery to whomever.

Weatherlawyer April 21st 08 03:19 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.


Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?


There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:

5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.


Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...10/125_-10.php
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...10/170_-20.php

45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any
rational.


Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 10:50 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.


Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?


There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:


5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.


Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...10/170_-20.php


45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.


Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.

There is a tropical storm warning out for Indonesia. However the FNMOC
WXMAP site put that into perspective:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi... d=thk&tau=000

The pressure would appear as a mere "col" on UK weather maps, however
TC 28S has wind speeds of 48 knots:
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/sh2808.gif

So there you have it. Next spell starts around the 28th. There is a
massive shift with that, I believe.

Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 11:13 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 22, 11:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.


Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?


There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:


5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.


Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/.../125_-10.phpht...


45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.


Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php

Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.


An opportunity exists with this phenomenon that enables deeper
analysis of the relationship of quakes to fronts:


4.1 08:08 37.268 71.583 Tajikistan
2.5 07:03 37.470 -118.832 central California
2.5 07:02 61.616 -149.965 southern Alaska
3.7 06:41 43.116 -126.561 off the coast of Oregon
2.8 06:32 33.788 -116.102 southern California
3.9 05:35 43.311 -126.444 off the coast of Oregon
4.0 03:58 43.212 -126.223 off the coast of Oregon
2.5 03:46 60.100 -151.850 kenai peninsula, Alaska
4.1 03:17 42.967 -126.748 off the coast of Oreon
4.9 03:09 -4.393 101.046 southern sumatra, Indonesia
4.6 02:10 13.406 146.281 Mariana Islands region
3.0 01:59 59.461 -152.464 southern Alaska
2.5 01:55 64.717 -146.576 central Alaska
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...uakes_all.html

With so few quakes it should be possible to guess which storms they
are related to. Note, there could well be a multiplicity of parts.

There are some excellent graphics on he
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...atl_gale_0.gif
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...pac_gale_0.gif
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...aus_gale_0.gif
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...ocn_gale_0.gif


Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 11:25 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 22, 12:13 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 22, 11:50 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 21, 4:19 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:


On Apr 21, 11:28 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


On Apr 21, 4:39 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


Almost forgot to look what's kookin:
19th April 2008
5.3 M. @14:53; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.
6.0 M. @10:21; 7.9 S 125.6 E Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia.


Always happens at the end of a storm.
How about that?


There is anther pair of matching quakes on tha NEIC list at the
moment:


5.5 M. 2008/04/21 @05:33, 7.1 S. 129.8 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.
5.6 M. 2008/04/20 @13:01; 7.8 S.125.7 E. Kepulauan Barat Daya,
Indonesia.


Looks like this spate of quakes has taken over from the spate in the
Loyalty Islands that stopped dead on the 12th:


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/.../125_-10.phpht...


45 degrees apart, that little lot. Not that I can explain any rational.


Furthermore there is that unexplained hiatus between what might be
quite an active seismic situation and the next storm systems:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php


Which link is -at the time of writing, showing no reports of quakes of
5M or more since: 2008/04/21 05:33:37
That is; some 36 hour ago.


An opportunity exists with this phenomenon that enables deeper
analysis of the relationship of quakes to fronts:

4.1 08:08 37.268 71.583 Tajikistan
2.5 07:03 37.470 -118.832 central California
2.5 07:02 61.616 -149.965 southern Alaska
3.7 06:41 43.116 -126.561 off the coast of Oregon
2.8 06:32 33.788 -116.102 southern California
3.9 05:35 43.311 -126.444 off the coast of Oregon
4.0 03:58 43.212 -126.223 off the coast of Oregon
2.5 03:46 60.100 -151.850 kenai peninsula, Alaska
4.1 03:17 42.967 -126.748 off the coast of Oreon
4.9 03:09 -4.393 101.046 southern sumatra, Indonesia
4.6 02:10 13.406 146.281 Mariana Islands region
3.0 01:59 59.461 -152.464 southern Alaska
2.5 01:55 64.717 -146.576 central Alaska
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...uakes_all.html

With so few quakes it should be possible to guess which storms they
are related to. Note, there could well be a multiplicity of parts.


The other problem of course is that there are two time sequences to
beware of. First of all, initial data from seismographs is almost
instantaneous. Meteorological data requires collation and analysis as
well as being rigidly time stamped.

And it seems to me that the seismic events follow the storm, that is
they occur as the storm dissipates. (Thereafter, in the absence of
storm fronts, there are sequences of aftersahocks. Some of them much
larger than the initial events and not necessarily in the same place.

(There may be a lot of error in our perception of the phenomenon known
as aftershocks.))

There are some excellent graphics on he

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.sw_aus_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_ind_oc...


I had to prefix the links with as a Google mangles a list of such
links otherwise. I wonder if any character would do as well? Or would
that just become a suffix to the preceding link?

Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 02:10 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 20, 4:46 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 19, 2:26 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

FUD.
Don't be put off by it in any of its forms. What is the worst that
could happen? In 2004, the Boxing Day disaster that started with an
earthquake at Banda Atjeh swept the Indian Ocean as far as Africa.


10 years before, a certain manager in the Indonesian Meteorological
department was removed from office for making a mistake and issuing a
Tsunami alert.


I wonder how the people irresponsible for that catastrophe were
treated? If they sacked a man for not killing hundreds of thousands of
people, what could they possibly have done about those that did?

Funny thing in all the follow ups, there were little or no
recriminations.
I imagine in the good old days when the law demanded and eye for an
eye, they'd round up all their families, even the most distant
relatives, all his friends and their families, all the people they did
business with and all their families and execute all them.

And they'd still have come up short.


Here comes that high again
Filling in the sky like a memory
Filling over-head in the North Pacific
Want to talk about that stalled depression?
Would you rather ignore this session?
Prefer to live in oblivion
Give abrogation to all discussion?
What is it like for you?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 02:28 PM

10:25
 
Another set of twin cyclones.:
Qhttp://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm

I wonder what is going on. Is it a more common phenomenon than
previously realised or is there a glitch in the apparatus?

"The Dvorak technique (developed in 1974 by Vernon Dvorak) is a widely
used system to subjectively estimate tropical cyclone intensity based
solely on visible and infrared satellite images.

Several agencies issue Dvorak intensity numbers for cyclones of
sufficient intensity. These include the National Hurricane Center's
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the NOAA/NESDIS
Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at
the Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Pearl Harbor,
Hawaii, and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).

In a developing cyclone, the technique takes advantage of the fact
that cyclones of similar intensity tend to have certain characteristic
features, and as they strengthen, they tend to change in appearance in
a predictable manner.

The structure and organization of the tropical cyclone are tracked
over 24 hours to determine if the storm has weakened, maintained its
intensity, or strengthened. Various central cloud and banding features
are compared with templates that show typical storm patterns and their
associated intensity.

If infrared satellite imagery is available for a cyclone with a
visible eye pattern, then the technique utilizes the difference
between the temperature of the warm eye and the surrounding cold cloud
tops to determine intensity (colder cloud tops generally indicate a
more intense storm).

In each case a "T-number" and a Current Intensity (CI) value are
assigned to the storm. These measurements range between 1 (minimum
intensity) and 8 (maximum intensity). The T-number and CI value are
the same except for weakening storms, in which case the CI is higher.

the list shows:
the Dvorak Number, wind speed in Knots; Pressure Millibars and the two
different ocean basins considered: the Atlantic and the North West
Pacific.

1.0 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858

The National Hurricane Center will often quote Dvorak T-numbers e.g.

DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS)
at the University of Wisconsin-Madison has developed the Objective
Dvorak Technique (ODT). This is a modified version of the Dvorak
technique which uses computer algorithms rather than subjective human
interpretation to arrive at a CI number. This is generally not
implemented for tropical depressions or weak tropical storms."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_techniqu"

Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 07:28 PM

10:25
 
The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens at 08:32. on May 18, was was
preceded by a two-month series of earthquakes and steam-venting
episodes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_er...unt_St._Helens

17 Jan 21:19
24 Jan 13:58
1 Feb 02:21
9 Feb 07:35
16 Feb 08:51
23 Feb 00:14
1 Mar 21:00
9 Mar 23:49
16 Mar 18:56
23 Mar 12:31
31 Mar 15:14
8 Apr 12:06
15 Apr 03:46
22 Apr 02:59
30 Apr 07:35
7 May 20:51
14 May 12:00
21 May 19:16
29 May 21:28
6 Jun 02:53
12 Jun 20:38
20 Jun 12:32
28 Jun 09:02
5 Jul 07:27
12 Jul 06:46
20 Jul 05:51
27 Jul 18:54
3 Aug 12:00
10 Aug 19:09
18 Aug 22:28
26 Aug 03:42
1 Sep 18:08
9 Sep 10:00
17 Sep 13:54
24 Sep 12:08
1 Oct 03:18
9 Oct 02:50
17 Oct 03:47
23 Oct 20:52
30 Oct 16:33
7 Nov 20:43
15 Nov 15:47
22 Nov 06:39
29 Nov 09:59
7 Dec 14:35
15 Dec 01:47
21 Dec 18:08
29 Dec 06:32

The crucial dates are the two phases prior to the eruption on the 18th
May and the phase that broke the spell
May 7 20:51 May 14 12 May 21 19:16.
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases1901.html
The importance of which are that they reflect a certain similarity to
recent dates and more importantly, times.

I included the whole set of dates and times so that anyone interested
enough can make more comparisons.

Weatherlawyer April 22nd 08 11:48 PM

10:25
 
It looks like the Andreanof Islands are kicking off again. Still
nothing over 4.9 M. in two days and more.

I suspect that the large high on the North American eastern seaboard
will bleed slowly into the Atlantic via Cape Hatteras and the south
eastern States rather than the Davis Strait, thus leaving the strait
open for that low to the south of Greenland to pass through.

It beats the hell out of me why I am the only person on god's earth
who can see that these highs and lows are interference patterns, the
product of acoustic pressures we are yet to examine.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

What the hell else could they be?

If it were anything the like of what Cleveland Abbe "The Weather Man",
surmised all those years ago, the two pressure areas described above
would interact with each other directly. Would they not?

I hope the one true god sees fit to provide gifts in men in the coming
generations. I'd tear the present load of ******* new arse-holes for
the good it would do scientific enquiry.

What they believe beggars belief.

Weatherlawyer April 23rd 08 12:06 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 22, 8:28 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:

The crucial dates are the two phases prior to the eruption on the 18th
May and the phase that broke the spell
May 7 20:51 May 14 12 May 21 19:16.
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases1901.html
The importance of which are that they reflect a certain similarity to
recent dates and more importantly, times.

I included the whole set of dates and times so that anyone interested
enough can make more comparisons.


A pointless exercise given that there is conclusive argument to adjust
the times of these phases for storms. I dare say there are well
documented records of all tropical cyclones for 1980, it's just that
methods are so much different in this century.

Bloody hell! It was nearly 30 years ago.

Weatherlawyer April 23rd 08 12:12 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 23, 12:48 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
It looks like the Andreanof Islands are kicking off again. Still
nothing over 4.9 M. in two days and more.

I suspect that the large high on the North American eastern seaboard
will bleed slowly into the Atlantic via Cape Hatteras and the south
eastern States rather than the Davis Strait, thus leaving the strait
open for that low to the south of Greenland to pass through.

It beats the hell out of me why I am the only person on god's earth
who can see that these highs and lows are interference patterns, the
product of acoustic pressures we are yet to examine.http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif

What the hell else could they be?

If it were anything the like of what Cleveland Abbe "The Weather Man",
surmised all those years ago, the two pressure areas described above
would interact with each other directly. Would they not?

I hope the one true god sees fit to provide gifts in men in the coming
generations. I'd tear the present load of ******* new arse-holes for
the good it would do scientific enquiry.

What they believe beggars belief.


Close but no cigar:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/New...041726580.html

Weatherlawyer April 23rd 08 04:56 AM

10:25
 
5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.

Weatherlawyer April 23rd 08 06:27 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 23, 5:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.


Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-b...t=0&incr=12&st...)

is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?

Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,brackne ll+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?

We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/9...2/6391341.html


Best I can do at the moment.

Weatherlawyer April 23rd 08 11:15 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 23, 7:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 23, 5:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.


Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-b...t=0&incr=12&st...)


is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?

Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,brackne ll+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?

We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/9...2/6391341.html


OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)

5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php


And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is.

Weatherlawyer April 24th 08 12:08 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 20, 7:19 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Forgot to add: 27P has gone.


Just like that Low there in the other spell. http://
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/...em07_8/20p.gif


Weatherlawyer April 24th 08 12:46 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 24, 12:15 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 23, 7:27 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 23, 5:56 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


5.2 M. 2008/04/2301:27:17 33.552 141.021 off the east coast of Honshu,
Japan.
5.2 M. 2008/04/2300:00:48 -25.713 -45.438 south Atlantic Ocean.
5.5 M. 2008/04/2105:33:37 -7.093 129.774 Kepulauan Babar, Indonesia.


Don't give up on me too soon. Watch this space until Friday/Saturday
and we should see something interesting.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-b...t=0&incr=12&st...)


is showing a nice camber hitting it off in some 60 hours -2 1/2 days
time?


Or is that 60 hours from midnight?
96 to 108 on this one: http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://
www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell
+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,brackne ll+84,bracknell
+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132
4 days?


We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:


http://english.people.com.cn/90001/9...2/6391341.html


OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)

5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php


And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is.


I left this out f the equations too:

CVGHM reported that seismicity from Anak Krakatau increased during
14-21 April; the number of events per day peaked on 20 April. Ash
plumes accompanied by propelled incandescent rocks were noted during
field observations on 16, 17, and 18 April.

The eruption affected the summit and the E and S flanks. Booming
noises were reported and occasionally heard at an observation post 42
km away. The Alert Level was raised to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21
April.

CVGHM reported that seismicity from Ibu increased during 6-14 April
and remained elevated during 15-20 April. Plumes described as
"eruption smoke" rose to altitude of 1.8-2.1 km (5,900-6,900 ft)
a.s.l. during 12-21 April and were gray during 18-21 April.

The Alert Level was increased to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21 April.
Residents and tourists were not permitted within 2 km of the crater.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/us...80416#krakatau


Weatherlawyer April 24th 08 01:17 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 24, 1:46 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

We should be seeing at least one 7.5 or so for the end of the week and
maybe another in the middle of the next spell. Something of the sort
of chain that took place with the event at Xinchiang:


http://english.people.com.cn/90001/9...2/6391341.html


OK, now the storms should stop (what little they were.)


5.1 M. 2008/04/23 22:04. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.
5.8 M. 2008/04/23 18:28. 22.9 N. 121.7 E. Taiwan Region.


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/...quakes_big.php


And we can get on with the next part of the spell. The next "phase",
as it were.
Pity I have forgotten what that is.


I left this out f the equations too:

CVGHM reported that seismicity from Anak Krakatau increased during
14-21 April; the number of events per day peaked on 20 April. Ash
plumes accompanied by propelled incandescent rocks were noted during
field observations on 16, 17, and 18 April.

The eruption affected the summit and the E and S flanks. Booming
noises were reported and occasionally heard at an observation post 42
km away. The Alert Level was raised to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21
April.

CVGHM reported that seismicity from Ibu increased during 6-14 April
and remained elevated during 15-20 April. Plumes described as
"eruption smoke" rose to altitude of 1.8-2.1 km (5,900-6,900 ft)
a.s.l. during 12-21 April and were gray during 18-21 April.

The Alert Level was increased to 3 (on a scale of 1-4) on 21 April.
Residents and tourists were not permitted within 2 km of the crater.

http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/us...ek=20080416#kr...


Which as it happens is something like 45 degrees from the Xinjiang
region. What was it that was 45 degrees from somewhere interesting
last time?

Unfortunately I need a pedant to follow in my footsteps. I just can't
keep track of things. Pity I can't stand the buggers. They might make
excellent meteorologists and astronomers but they spoil any science
they are given charge of.

Weatherlawyer April 24th 08 01:59 PM

10:25
 
Here come the mice again
Curving around Iceland like a memory
Rinning to earth like hell in motion
I want to walk in the open ground
I want to talk about earthquakes too
I want to dive into the ocean
Is it raining with you

http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...racknell+13 2

Weatherlawyer April 25th 08 11:48 AM

10:25
 
In the North Atlantic the low that has dogged the top left hand corner
for the last few days has stated to... not so much move east as is the
norm but to extend east.

It has actually extended as far as Scandinavia where there is an
Asiatic High coming the other way. It reaches half way up Greenland
where an High stretching from over most of North America to past the
North Pole, meets it.

It is quite a serious build up of events. If it were a balloon people,
near it might well be looking pensive. But as with such explosions
those inside the pressure area are the least affected.

So where will the earthquake be?
From Earthquake.itgo.com:
PREDICTION Dt. 23rd April '08

Good sunshine day.

Suspect around 6 to 7+M quakes over

KERMAN, IRAN (28.33N 56.33E) - NORTH -CENTRAL IRAN (30.7N 50.5E)
MID-INDIAN RIDGE (15.1S 67.9E) - MINAHASSA PENINSULA( 0.1N 123.4E)

and around 5 to 6M quakes over

IRIAN JAYA REGION (3.7S 131.1E) - BANDA SEA (6.0S 130.0E)

may occur within next 48 to 380 hours from 04.30 UTC on 22nd April
2008.

http://earthquake.itgo.com/today.htm

I have always found that this man's errors are more likely due to the
event being a storm rather than an earthquake. Since he doesn't take
account of storms in his data, it is only fair that he counts his
errors as failures. So consider that when you look at his posted
results.

Note, I am not saying that the window is the same as it can not be
with the length of storm duration being substantially different.

No more is the location to be considered the same.

It will be within geometric parameters yet to be set. Something like
90 or 120 degrees different depending on the category of the storm
IIRC.

Without looking more closely it appears that the result will be on the
1012 mb surface level pressure line.

Exactly in the pressure wave path of any exploding Highs and imploding
Lows.

I doubt anyone has ever given a less rational qack-cast than that but
damnitalltohell! what a doozie if I am right.

Point to note:
These regions are places of light winds, and with no wind sheer you
tend to get large thunder cells building maybe even tornadoes.

Lack of wind sheer is also a factor in tropical storms.

Weatherlawyer April 25th 08 07:24 PM

10:25
 
There is a number of quakes or tremors over in the Andreanof Isles
once again. Looks like plenty of Aitches dropping off the continent.

Weatherlawyer April 26th 08 04:03 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 25, 8:24 pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
There is a number of quakes or tremors over in the Andreanof Isles
once again. Looks like plenty of Aitches dropping off the continent.


Shoot lost the thread. Damned Google!

Out vast spot.

Here we go with another storm:

5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early
to say.

Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.

Weatherlawyer April 26th 08 10:48 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 26, 5:03 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

Here we go with another storm:

5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early to say.

Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.


Now there is a Low in Greenland and an High in Scandinavia but the Low
that was stationed off Newfoundland for so long has almost come home.

Here are a set of charts covering most of the northern hemisphe

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...e/Fax/,.gif,br...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=0&Day=0&Ru...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html



Weatherlawyer April 27th 08 12:10 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 26, 11:48 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 26, 5:03 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



Here we go with another storm:


5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early to say.


Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.


Now there is a Low in Greenland and an High in Scandinavia but the Low
that was stationed off Newfoundland for so long has almost come home.

Here are a set of charts covering most of the northern hemisphe

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...e/Fax/,.gif,br...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=0&Day=0&Ru...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html


Storms due:

5.0 M. 2008/04/26 13:15 50.5 N. 51.8 W. W. KAZAKHSTAN
5.1 M. 2008/04/25 18:23 16.1 S. 175.0 W. TONGA

Storms ended:

2008/04/24
5.0 M. 20.0 S. 169.1 E. VANUATU
6.5 M. 1.1 S. 23.6 W. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 M. 20.0 S. 168.7 E. VANUATU


2008/04/23
5.0 22.8 N. 121.8 E. TAIWAN REGION
6.0 22.8 N. 121.7 E. TAIWAN REGION
5.5 3.9 S. 131.4 E. CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.2 33.6 N. 141.0 E. OFF THE E. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 25.7 S. 45.4 W. S. ATLANTIC OCEAN

North Atlantic chart 2008 April 26th +36 hours:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam...tl_gale_36.gif

And I've had a crick in my shoulder all day. (That's since I got up on
the 26th.)

I don't believe that the UK weather forecasts are all that they could
be. And the spell is running out (28th nominally but things get off to
a flying start in North America on the 27th -which is today.)

Weatherlawyer April 27th 08 09:47 AM

10:25
 
North American weather patterns look decidedly North American at the
moment: http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html
These fronts always follow the outline of the east coast, I suppose
that is to be expected.

The set out of the storms on here though:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

..... how do they know the shape of the east coast?

Skywise April 27th 08 04:51 PM

10:25
 
Weatherlawyer wrote in news:098f1c21-a2d6-4f54-
:

North American weather patterns look decidedly North American at the
moment


WOW!!! What a profound statement!!!

Let me bask in the light of your wisdom. hmmmm... odd... it's
awfully dark in here.

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

Michael[_2_] April 28th 08 04:53 AM

10:25
 

"Skywise" wrote in message
...
Weatherlawyer wrote in
news:098f1c21-a2d6-4f54-
:

North American weather patterns look decidedly North American at the
moment


WOW!!! What a profound statement!!!

Let me bask in the light of your wisdom. hmmmm... odd... it's
awfully dark in here.

Brian
--


It's only a night light. The man obviously has way too much time on his
hands, a chinless wonder perhaps?



----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups
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Weatherlawyer April 28th 08 09:26 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 27, 1:10 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 26, 11:48 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 26, 5:03 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


Here we go with another storm:


5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early to say.


Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.


Now there is a Low in Greenland and an High in Scandinavia but the Low
that was stationed off Newfoundland for so long has almost come home.


Here are a set of charts covering most of the northern hemisphe


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...e/Fax/,.gif,br...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=0&Day=0&Ru...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html


Storms due:

5.0 M. 2008/04/26 13:15 50.5 N. 51.8 W. W. KAZAKHSTAN
5.1 M. 2008/04/25 18:23 16.1 S. 175.0 W. TONGA

Storms ended:

2008/04/24
5.0 M. 20.0 S. 169.1 E. VANUATU
6.5 M. 1.1 S. 23.6 W. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 M. 20.0 S. 168.7 E. VANUATU

2008/04/23
5.0 22.8 N. 121.8 E. TAIWAN REGION
6.0 22.8 N. 121.7 E. TAIWAN REGION
5.5 3.9 S. 131.4 E. CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.2 33.6 N. 141.0 E. OFF THE E. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 25.7 S. 45.4 W. S. ATLANTIC OCEAN

North Atlantic chart 2008 April 26th +36 hours:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...

And I've had a crick in my shoulder all day. (That's since I got up on
the 26th.)

I don't believe that the UK weather forecasts are all that they could
be. And the spell is running out (28th nominally but things get off to
a flying start in North America on the 27th -which is today.)


Looks like a humdinger is on its way. Nargis in the bay of Bengal is
headed due south, so it's relatively safe. Which is just as well as it
is already 65 knots and slated to reach 115 on the 1st May. That's a
Cat 4.

I must say I am relieved as it will twist away the time of the phase
and give a spell not too likely to be painful for people like me.

Even my shoulder feels better.
http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io0108.gif


This is an odd one. It has the Low bouncing back from Scandinavia even
going to the south of England and all sorts:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-b...ntic%20Bas in)


Weatherlawyer April 29th 08 12:13 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 28, 10:26 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Apr 27, 1:10 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:



On Apr 26, 11:48 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


On Apr 26, 5:03 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:


Here we go with another storm:


5.1 2008/04/25 18:22. 16.1 S. 175.0 W. Tonga.
I was looking at it yesterday and thought "Storm" but it was too early to say.


Or maybe it is that things are about to go pear shaped. In which case
the biggie is definitely on for today or tomorrow.


Now there is a Low in Greenland and an High in Scandinavia but the Low
that was stationed off Newfoundland for so long has almost come home.


Here are a set of charts covering most of the northern hemisphe


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_pac_ga...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...
http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,ht...e/Fax/,.gif,br...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensem...our=0&Day=0&Ru...
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/images/sat_sfc_map_loop.html


Storms due:


5.0 M. 2008/04/26 13:15 50.5 N. 51.8 W. W. KAZAKHSTAN
5.1 M. 2008/04/25 18:23 16.1 S. 175.0 W. TONGA


Storms ended:


2008/04/24
5.0 M. 20.0 S. 169.1 E. VANUATU
6.5 M. 1.1 S. 23.6 W. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.5 M. 20.0 S. 168.7 E. VANUATU


2008/04/23
5.0 22.8 N. 121.8 E. TAIWAN REGION
6.0 22.8 N. 121.7 E. TAIWAN REGION
5.5 3.9 S. 131.4 E. CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
5.2 33.6 N. 141.0 E. OFF THE E. COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
5.2 25.7 S. 45.4 W. S. ATLANTIC OCEAN


North Atlantic chart 2008 April 26th +36 hours:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynam....EFS.no_atl_ga...


And I've had a crick in my shoulder all day. (That's since I got up on
the 26th.)


I don't believe that the UK weather forecasts are all that they could
be. And the spell is running out (28th nominally but things get off to
a flying start in North America on the 27th -which is today.)


Looks like a humdinger is on its way. Nargis in the bay of Bengal is
headed due south, so it's relatively safe. Which is just as well as it
is already 65 knots and slated to reach 115 on the 1st May. That's a
Cat 4.

I must say I am relieved as it will twist away the time of the phase
and give a spell not too likely to be painful for people like me.

Even my shoulder feels better.

http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io0108.gif


This is an odd one. It has the Low bouncing back from Scandinavia even
going to the south of England and all sorts:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/cgi-b...t=0&incr=12&st...)


2008/04/28
6.0 M. 15:58; 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
5.0 M. 15:31. 58.4 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.

So that means some storm is about to run out of steam; eh?

What tropical would that be then?

Weatherlawyer April 29th 08 10:01 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 29, 1:13 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

2008/04/28
6.0 M. 15:58; 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
5.0 M. 15:31. 58.4 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.

So that means some storm is about to run out of steam; eh?

What tropical would that be then?


Could they mean these.
Google News Alert for: tornado:

Tornado rips through Virginia, 200 injured: officials
AFP -
WASHINGTON (AFP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Virginia on
Monday, causing about 200 injuries and damaging homes, authorities
said. ...

WASHINGTON (AFP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Virginia on
Monday, causing about 200 injuries and damaging homes, authorities
said.
"Suffolk looks to be hardest hit," said Bob Spieldenner, spokesman for
the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, referring to the city
in the southeast corner of the state.

"They are estimating somewhere around 200 injuries."
A local hospital was also hit but was still able to receive patients,
he said.
Local television footage showed houses blown apart and trees cut down
by the tornado.

The twister had hit other south-central counties along the border of
North Carolina on Monday afternoon but the extent of the damage was
difficult to ascertain with the onset of nightfall, Spieldenner said.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...gXkxjpwVAcKI_w


Storm stories: Tales from Monday's Hampton Roads tornado
http://hamptonroads.com/2008/04/stor...-roads-tornado


Families cope with losses after tornado touches down in Suffolk
http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/...cf8ab50. html


Tornado Rips Through Local Community
http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/18353214.html


Twisters destroy homes in Virginia
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/04/28/tornado.virginia/

Heavy rain across country, tornado warnings
Stuff.co.nz - New Zealand
http://stuff.co.nz/search-results.ht...search_go.y=10


Witnesses: Tornado hits Cleveland Co.
http://news14.com/content/top_storie...-/Default.aspx


BREAKING NEWS: Reported tornado strikes
http://www.progress-index.com/site/n... 462946&rfi=6


Video: Colonial Heights tornado damage
http://www.wsls.com/sls/news/state_r..._damage/10053/


Weatherlawyer April 29th 08 11:48 AM

10:25
 
On Apr 29, 11:01 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

2008/04/28
6.0 M. 15:58; 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.
5.0 M. 15:31. 58.4 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region.


So that means some storm is about to run out of steam; eh?


What tropical would that be then?


Could they mean these.
Google News Alert for: tornado:

Tornado rips through Virginia, 200 injured: officials
AFP -
WASHINGTON (AFP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Virginia on
Monday, causing about 200 injuries and damaging homes, authorities
said. ...

WASHINGTON (AFP) — A tornado ripped through southeastern Virginia on
Monday, causing about 200 injuries and damaging homes, authorities
said.
"Suffolk looks to be hardest hit," said Bob Spieldenner, spokesman for
the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, referring to the city
in the southeast corner of the state.

"They are estimating somewhere around 200 injuries."
A local hospital was also hit but was still able to receive patients,
he said.
Local television footage showed houses blown apart and trees cut down
by the tornado.

The twister had hit other south-central counties along the border of
North Carolina on Monday afternoon but the extent of the damage was
difficult to ascertain with the onset of nightfall, Spieldenner said.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5...gXkxjpwVAcKI_w


Storm stories: Tales from Monday's Hampton Roads tornado

http://hamptonroads.com/2008/04/stor...days-hampton-r...


Families cope with losses after tornado touches down in Suffolk

http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/...042808_storm_s...


Tornado Rips Through Local Community

http://www.wctv.tv/news/headlines/18353214.html


Twisters destroy homes in Virginiahttp://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/04/28/tornado.virginia/

Heavy rain across country, tornado warnings
Stuff.co.nz - New Zealand

http://stuff.co.nz/search-results.ht...ado&search_go=....


Witnesses: Tornado hits Cleveland Co.

http://news14.com/content/top_storie...-tornado-hits-...


BREAKING NEWS: Reported tornado strikes

http://www.progress-index.com/site/n...5146&BRD=2271&....


Video: Colonial Heights tornado damage

http://www.wsls.com/sls/news/state_r...eo_colonial_he...


2008/04/28
6.0 M. 15:58 58.7 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region
5.0 M. 15:31 58.5 S. 24.7 W. South Sandwich Islands region
5.0 M. 14:33 58.6 S. 24.8 W. South Sandwich Islands region

Is it possible that the spells of tornadic weather in the US and in
New Zealand were related to this set of quakes? Not that dramatic a
parallel as NZ is some 80 degrees away and the tornadoes were all over
the place in the USA.

Some 110 degrees by my reckoning from Driver near Richmond:
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&nc..._w&sa=N&tab=nl


And some 90 degrees to Gisborne, New Zealand:
http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&nc..._w&sa=N&tab=nl

None the less, I wouldn't mind a look at a record of tornadoes and
comparing them to accounts of quakes in the South Sandwiches.

Weatherlawyer May 13th 08 08:03 PM

10:25
 
On Apr 20, 7:14 am, Weatherlawyer wrote:

I just found the Australian data archive:
http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/MSL/
All I need now is China or Siberia and/or both would be even nicer.

Not content with criminal characteristics towards humanity, the enticing culture
of communiteeism seems radically hostile to all forms of pressure.

Perhaps if we started calling them The People's Liberation of National
Weather Data instead of Synoptics...

Or perhaps if we stopped calling them *******?

The *******!


“Communism possesses a language which all people can understand - its
elements are hunger, envy, and death”

Heinrich Heine

George Bush is a Commie? I thought he was a monkey. You'd expect it of
Tory B....errrm. 10p Brown.


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