FOUS30 KWBC 271318
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
917 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

....VALID 15Z WED JUL 27 2011 - 12Z THU JUL 28 2011...
....REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
FKA FLD BIV SFY EBS FKA.



15Z UPDATE...
LATEST SAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOWI WARMING TOPS FOR ACTIVITY ACRS
IA..THUS HAVE REMOVED THE SEE TEXT PORTION FROM PREVIOUS OUTLOOK
HIGHLIGHTING THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGE TO SLIGHT RISK
AREA ACRS PARTS OF NERN IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL FOR PSBL HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINS DVLPG ACRS THIS REGION WED NIGHT. SULLIVAN
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOLLOWS...


....NERN IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...
THREAT ACRS THIS REGION WL BE LATER TNGT AND WL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CURRENT MCS PROGRESSION THIS MRNG AND THE EVENTUAL PSTN OF THE
OUTFLOW BNDRY/SYNOPTIC FNTL BNDRY. MDLS SEEM TO BE IN MORE
AGREEMENT THIS MRNG THAN PAST DAYS THAT A BNDRY WL BE DRAPED ACRS
THIS REGION LATER TDA. THE BNDRY WL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHG
SWD...EVEN WITH CNVCTV OUTFLOWS DUE TO THE STG SCNTRL U.S. RIDGE
THAT WL BE HOLDING STG. MDLS ARE SHOWG SVRL SHRTWVS LIFTG ENEWD FM
THE ROCKIES/PLNS THAT WL RIDE OVR THE REGION AND PROVIDE PDS OF
STGR LIFT...WHILE THE UPR FLOW SHOWS PERSISTENT DIFL WITH SOME
DVRG ASSOCD WITH COUPLED UPR JET STREAKS. LATER TNGT AS THE LLJ
INCRS THRU THE PLNS AND VEERS/AIMS INTO THE MIDWEST...BOTH THE
NAM/GFS ARE SHOWG PWS BUILDG TO 2.25-2.50 INCHES...WHICH SEEM VRY
HIGH. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABV SEASONAL NRMLS AND NEAR ALL-TIME
HIGHS. DVN PEAK PW FOR LATE JULY/AUG IS ARND 2.35 INCHES. MDLS ARE
SHOWG SOME FEEDBACK...SO THIS COULD BE THE CULPRIT. STILL LOOKS
LIKE STG SUPPORT FOR A RIBBON OF PWS ARND TWO INCHES...WHICH ARE
2-3 STDS ABV NRML. MDLS SHOW DECENT MSTR FLUX TNGT AND A STG 8H
THERMAL RDG ACRS THE REGION. CELL MOTIONS SHLD BE TWD THE E...BUT
THERE WL BE STG BACKBLDG PTNL LATER TNGT AS THE LLJ INCRS AND BCMS
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPR FLOW. RNFL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HR WL BE PSBL WITH LCLZD HVIER TOTALS.


....CNTRL ROCKIES...
PLUME OF RICH MSTR CONTS TO LIFT INTO THE REGION WITH WV
IMAGERY/MDLS CONTG TO SHOW SVRL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS THAT WL RIDE OVR
THE REGION AND PROVIDE STGR LIFT. PWS ARE SOMEWHAT LWR THAN
YSTRDA...BUT STILL NEAR ONE INCH IN SOME AREAS...WITH MDLS
INDICATG K-INDICES RISG TO ARND 40. UPR FLOW IS XPCTD TO CONT
INCRSG THAT WL HELP ACCEL CELLS TO THE NE AND SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR HVY RNFL. TERRAIN COULD ANCHOR SOME CELLS...ESPCLY
LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS. PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FM PRVS
CNVCTN COULD AGN LIMIT HEATG IN SOME AREAS. ISOLD ONE INCH PER HR
RATES ARE PSBL.

ECKERT
$$

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