HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 

FOUS30 KWBC 130141
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
941 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

....VALID 03Z WED JUL 13 2011 - 00Z THU JUL 14 2011...
....REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW ODX 20 W BBW 25 SSE LBF 25 S IML 35 E AKO 15 S AKO
35 N LIC 25 ESE DEN 10 WNW DEN 10 W FNL CYS 30 NW IBM AIA
45 ESE IEN 30 WNW 9V9 35 ENE 9V9 35 SSW MHE 30 WNW YKN
10 WSW YKN 30 NW OFK 25 NNW BVN 30 NNW ODX.


NO REASON TO ADJUST PREVIOUS FCST... AS 18Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CAPTURE A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXITING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
IGNITING ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE/HEAVY RAIN COMPLEX. THERE
REMAINS SLIGHT SPREAD OF THE OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE ON
THE EXACT AXIS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. HPC EXPANDED THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINS DUE TO THIS MODEL
SPREAD AND RELATIVELY LOW FFG FROM NERN CO THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FOR MORE ON THE SPECIFICS IN THE FCST...

SOME SLGT PROGRESSION TO THE SYNOPTIC PATN IS FCST BY ALL THE
MDLS..AS THE ERN PAC/PAC NW CLOSED LOW DRIFTS INTO THE PAC NW AND
NRN GT BASIN AND DOWNSTREAM H5 RDG SLIDES INTO THE MS VLY BY THE
END OF THE PD. SWLY/WSWLY MID/UPR FLO BTWN THESE SYSTEMS WL BRING
H5 S/WV ENERGY FM THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE CNTRL/SRN GT BASIN THRU
THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS PD..WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED S/WV SEEN ON WTR VAPOR PIX ATTM ENTERING
CNTRL N.M.. ENHANCED LRG SCALE LIFT FM THESE S/WV IMPULSES ALG
WITH INCREASING MOIST ELY LOW LVL FLO INTO THE CO/SERN WY
FOOTHILLS SHLD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED CNVCTN LTR THIS AFTN AND
TNGT..WITH THE CNVCTN CONTG TO MOV EWD/ENEWD NR THE CREST OF THE
H5 RDG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LTR TUE NGT AND WED..INTO WHAT SHLD
BE A STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LVL INFLO REGIME. FOR THE MOST
PART..THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..WITH EVEN
THEIR QPFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. XPC SOME ISOLD 1+ INCH RNFL
AMTS IN AN HR OR SO AND SOME ISOLD 2 INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE
PD..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBS NERN CO INTO NE..WHERE
SOME LWR FFG VALUES EXIST.

MUSHER/TERRY

$$

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