656
FXUS06 KWBC 121901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 12 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 22 2011

TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER, AS WELL AS WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL RUNS, ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW FORECAST FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGES SOUTH OF THE

ALEUTIANS AND OVER THE CENTRAL U.S., AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS JUST WEST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEING FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE U.S., EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN

ALASKA, AND THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS OF THE CONUS.

ONE AREA OF LARGER UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODELS IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.,
WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BRING ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. WHILE

MANY TOOLS ARE PREDICTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THE NAEFS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION, VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS VALID TODAY OVER
THE SAME REGION INDICATE THAT TOOLS FORECASTING BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST

MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE WARMING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THEREFORE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THERES AN INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN ALASKA

ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED OVER WESTERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH FORECAST POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

THERES AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE MEDIAN

PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EXTREME PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A FORECAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY, SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS, WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHEAST THROUGH

THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER
NEW ENGLAND WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST OFF

THE COAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE.


TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: YESTERDAY'S 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TODAY'S 06Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIE)

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 26 2011

DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD, THE FORECAST MEAN FLOW PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT FORECAST DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE AREAS OF ABOVE
AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SIMILAR, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
SINCE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER FAVORED OVER FLORIDA. INSTEAD, NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED.

THE REGIONS OF BELOW AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE WEEK 2 PERIOD ARE
ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHERE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH, SO NEAR MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS NOW FAVORED THERE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 45 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 45 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD.

FORECASTER: MIKE CHARLES

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
( 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
( 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520627 - 19990718 - 19800704 - 19860715 - 19630628


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520626 - 19990717 - 19630629 - 19960622 - 19860714


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 22 2011

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 26 2011

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A A KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B N

LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$

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