FOUS30 KWBC 121841
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

....VALID 18Z TUE JUL 12 2011 - 00Z THU JUL 14 2011...
....REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 SSW IBM 15 S IBM 20 ENE IBM 25 N SNY 35 SSE AIA 45 SE AIA
45 W TIF 15 NNW TIF 10 NNW ANW 30 SSE ICR 35 ESE ICR 45 SW MHE
35 SSW MHE 35 S MHE 25 NW YKN 10 WSW YKN 30 SSW YKN 35 NW OFK
30 N BVN 30 NW BVN 25 NNE ODX 25 NW ODX 20 N BBW 20 WNW BBW
15 NE LBF 10 SSW LBF 25 SW LBF 25 ENE IML 15 SE IML 20 S IML
35 SW IML 35 E AKO 15 ESE AKO 20 S AKO 30 SSW AKO 35 NNW LIC
25 ESE DEN 15 ENE DEN 20 S GXY 40 SSW IBM.


SOME SLGT PROGRESSION TO THE SYNOPTIC PATN IS FCST BY ALL THE
MDLS..AS THE ERN PAC/PAC NW CLOSED LOW DRIFTS INTO THE PAC NW AND
NRN GT BASIN AND DOWNSTREAM H5 RDG SLIDES INTO THE MS VLY BY THE
END OF THE PD. SWLY/WSWLY MID/UPR FLO BTWN THESE SYSTEMS WL BRING
H5 S/WV ENERGY FM THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE CNTRL/SRN GT BASIN THRU
THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS PD..WITH ONE
PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED S/WV SEEN ON WTR VAPOR PIX ATTM ENTERING
CNTRL N.M.. ENHANCED LRG SCALE LIFT FM THESE S/WV IMPULSES ALG
WITH INCREASING MOIST ELY LOW LVL FLO INTO THE CO/SERN WY
FOOTHILLS SHLD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED CNVCTN LTR THIS AFTN AND
TNGT..WITH THE CNVCTN CONTG TO MOV EWD/ENEWD NR THE CREST OF THE
H5 RDG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS LTR TUE NGT AND WED..INTO WHAT SHLD
BE A STRENGTHENING SELY LOW LVL INFLO REGIME. FOR THE MOST
PART..THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO..WITH EVEN
THEIR QPFS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. XPC SOME ISOLD 1+ INCH RNFL
AMTS IN AN HR OR SO AND SOME ISOLD 2 INCH TOTALS THIS ENTIRE
PD..WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBS NERN CO INTO NE..WHERE
SOME LWR FFG VALUES EXIST.

TERRY

$$

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