DISCUSSION:
 

FXUS04 KWBC 120629
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 12/1200 UTC THRU JUL 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


....DAY 1...

SWRN U.S. INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND EWD INTO THE CNTL
PLAINS/MID MS AND TN VALLEYS...
A SLIGHT EWD SHIFT TO THE MONSOON PATRN OVER THE SW U.S. AS
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWS SOME DRIER WLY FLOW TO
PUSH SLOWLY EWD INTO SW. THIS WILL PLACE MAIN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR
ACRS WRN NM NEWD ACRS CO THEN EWD THRU PARTS OF NEB/IA AROUND NRN
SIDE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OF SRN U.S. UPR RIDGE. INITIAL MCS OVER
NEB THIS MRNG WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACRS THE MIDWEST WHERE IT
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN ESEWD INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT UPR FLOW.
MEANWHILE..EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN DURING AFTN HEATING
ACRS THE SRN/CNTL ROCKIES..WITH ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY WEAK VORT
LIFTING NNEWD NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE AREAS OF NE CO/ERN WY LATER
TODAY AS WELL AS GENL WAA PATRN ALONG AND N OF E/W FRONT THRU
NEB/IA LATER TODAY AND TUES NIGHT WHERE STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT PCPN AMOUNTS TO BE AS HEAVY AS
MON NIGHTS RAINS GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK 85H FLOW AND LOWER PWS.
THE USUAL TIMING AND LATITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH FOR THE
MOST PART..THE UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW BEST AGREEMENT ON AXES OF
QPF THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THIS WAS GENLY FOLLOWED. FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST...OLD TUTT CELL WHICH HAD WORKED ITS WAY NWWD FROM THE
GULF INTO NRN TX HAS BEEN MODIFIED ENOUGH TO FINALLY PRODUCE
CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
AS IT DRIFTS NEWD TOWARD SW MO OVER THE NEXT DAY. TO THE EAST OF
THIS SYSTEM..WEAK CONFLUENT 85H FLOW INTO COLD FRONT SETTLING SWD
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY BY WED MRNG WILL SUPPORT AREA OF SCTD TSTMS.
MODELS SHOW PWS POOLING TO OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE BNDRY..WHICH
COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN..BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND
OVERALL QPF ACRS THIS AREA REMAINS LOW DUE TO WEAK UPR FORCING.

NRN NEW ENGLAND....
WEAK S/WV ENERGY MOVING ACRS QUEBEC PROV THIS AFTN ALONG WITH AN
EVEN SHARPER S/WV TROF APCHG NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST TOWARD WED
MRNG WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SHWRS ACRS THE REGION..WITH BEST
CHANCES ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND ALONG TRACK OF SFC LOW MOVING THRU
THE REGION LATER TUE. MODELS GENLY SHOW LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS..AND
THIS WAS GENL FOLLOWED.

GULF COAST...
HIGH PWS WL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WWD ALONG THE CNTL/ERN GULF COAST
ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE SERN U.S. UPR HIGH ACRS THE NERN GULF/NRN
FL REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCTD CONVECTION THRU THE REGION WITH
ISOLD HEAVIER RAINS GIVEN HI E/W PW AXIS ACRS THE AREA.

PAC NW...
THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED LOW OFF THE SWRN CAN COAST WL SINK
SWD TO A PSN OFF THE PAC NW COAST THIS PERIOD. DEEPENING SWLY
FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOW..ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY..WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
INLAND..ESPECIALLY ACRS PARTS OF THE WA CASCADES WHERE .25 TO .50
INCH AREAL AVG PCPN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. A BLEND OF REASONABLY
CLOSE NAM/GFS AND UKMET AMOUNTS WERE USED.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 13/12Z
0.01 508638 504628 500619 490609 485602 481600 472598 460606
458613 457620 457626 455631 453634 445644 441650 439658
439666 437673 433679 426683 421688 419694 418701 420709
421716 424725 427732 431735 435733 439734 441737 439754
441756 444756 448755 452751 455746 457744 459746 462756
469772 471780 470789 469804 470814 471819 473829 473840
472857 473867 475871 477871 480868 484862 491848 498834
501828 502819 499804 498792 498783 496772 499770 504766
507760 510755 513748 516742 518736 518732 517722 516713
516706 514698 508676 505665 504658 507654 508638
0.01 542197 542184 543172 544161 547152 551134 546118 543112
544104 543096 542083 540076 537068 534062 529056 523051
520049 516049 511052 507054 503057 498057 485055 473049
456061 451057 450053 452048 455035 449020 446013 445006
445998 446993 446986 447966 446955 445945 444940 442938
437931 436914 436910 434907 431902 427898 423891 420877
416873 411871 404868 400862 398856 393839 390824 390815
393810 400799 400793 399790 397789 390791 387792 384790
377772 372764 368760 364755 364747 361733 361729 359726
354724 349729 347734 343744 335760 332772 333779 337781
341782 344779 347775 353765 356763 358765 358770 358785
357799 357815 352842 344843 336846 327842 319838 315836
313831 310824 307819 299811 295805 293801 295793 296788
295781 291776 285777 278780 272783 266785 262788 258799
254800 250802 249806 265860 269875 269887 268906 268914
272921 280927 289933 297937 306941 320936 325933 330929
337919 348898 352893 355890 358892 363895 368899 369908
366914 361923 348943 346955 346965 346970 340978 340987
344993 347996 352000 358002 368004 373006 375009 378017
380024 380032 380036 381040 379043 374046 369047 363049
359049 355048 315036 310036 307034 304033 295037 288039
283041 271039 258039 246037 241036 236037 231040 228045
232056 236067 240071 245074 252080 260085 269089 292096
311104 320109 329112 337119 342123 348126 376130 385123
391120 396120 410122 422123 429123 429131 431139 436144
443149 450149 457147 462148 462150 461156 458160 455164
452168 451173 450179 447184 444187 442187 435188 431192
428199 420212 419213 414212 410207 406205 400210 400214
402221 401226 402230 408231 414235 415239 414243 414247
417251 421252 432252 442252 451251 462246 468245 476251
485260 495268 502273 509275 514276 518273
0.01 456206 459202 457201 454201 451201 451202 450204 450205
453207 456206 456206
0.25 492649 488636 483625 478619 471619 471628 470633 469636
461652 462661 466672 468678 470684 473696 475704 478711
482716 484717 488718 491720 494715 495711 495702 495691
496681 496677 494671 494662 492649
0.25 527145 529140 529135 528129 525120 522116 519113 514112
508111 502111 498113 498122 499127 502132 507135 511138
515140 519143 524145 527145
0.25 530087 531082 530077 529076 526073 526072 523070 520068
519068 517067 514068 511069 509072 509077 511082 511084
512086 514090 515091 517094 520094 523093 525092 526092
529090 530087
0.25 481213 479210 477209 474209 471209 469210 467211 464213
461216 459219 460222 463222 466222 469221 472219 475217
477216 479215 481213
0.25 490095 491090 489086 487081 485076 482072 479069 476069
471069 467072 464076 462081 463085 465089 469094 473096
479098 482099 486099 488098 490095
0.25 434968 435960 434953 433944 431936 426927 425922 423915
422908 419902 416901 412900 405904 401900 396892 391877
388864 385853 384845 381832 377824 374820 370818 365821
363824 361829 360836 364860 367871 371878 376887 380896
391912 395916 397921 400932 401936 398940 390943 384945
380946 372944 368947 365950 359957 357960 355965 355977
353985 355988 359990 375982 390971 396968 399968 401970
403984 403989 402001 397023 391043 392050 389056 384062
377065 370065 364068 360075 358080 353082 346081 339076
334076 329078 328084 330088 333094 337102 339102 343099
345096 349093 352091 355090 358092 366094 375092 390086
396082 401074 409069 416064 427061 433056 432047 428037
427030 427024 428012 430000 432985 434973 434968
0.25 319910 319900 316891 312886 308882 303879 300872 301858
300852 297846 292831 286823 285816 282812 279809 275808
270807 265807 261811 261815 264818 268821 273823 277827
278835 278843 278848 280852 295873 294889 294894 295903
299920 301928 305931 309931 313928 315924 317918 318912
319910
0.25 325072 321066 318064 313064 306065 296067 286066 280063
264059 256058 252058 249060 253066 258071 269078 277081
285083 296082 301078 307073 313071 324072 325072
0.50 490661 489656 488652 486648 485645 483641 480638 476638
475639 474640 473640 472645 472646 473651 473655 474660
476663 477664 479666 482667 483667 485667 488665 490662
490661
0.50 482085 481081 480077 479076 476076 475077 473079 471081
473084 476085 477085 479086 482085
0.50 431965 431956 430948 427937 423932 420926 415917 412922
411929 412941 414957 415971 415980 414985 413996 410008
408014 406019 402028 400038 404049 405053 407055 409055
415053 418049 419037 419029 419021 418006 421002 425998
427989 429983 430976 431965
0.50 379840 376830 372825 368827 366830 366838 367848 368854
370858 375864 380869 382870 383869 381866 381862 381854
379844 379840
0.50 393072 394068 392065 389067 388068 387072 389072 392072
393072
0.50 387076 387073 384074 381074 378072 375070 373072 375075
375076 378079 381077 384077 387076 387076
0.50 379970 379967 378966 376963 375962 372961 371961 369961
368961 366962 364965 363966 361969 361970 361973 362975
362976 364980 365980 368979 371979 373978 374978 376975
377974 379971 379970
0.50 313911 314904 311900 308896 306893 303891 301894 301898
302904 304907 303910 304917 305923 307924 309923 311919
312914 313911
0.50 291851 291848 291845 289842 288839 287837 286833 285832
283834 283835 283838 282840 282841 283844 283848 285850
285851 286853 289854 291852 291851
0.50 279820 276818 275817 275818 276819 279820 279820
0.50 282072 280071 277070 275068 272068 269068 268069 269069
272070 273072 275072 277073 280072 282072
1.00 427957 427953 426949 425948 424946 422942 419940 418943
418947 418951 419955 420959 421962 424966 425966 426961
427959 427957

$$

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