Localized hurricane predictions stir debate
 

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040517-043455-7794r.htm

Miami, FL, May. 17 (UPI) -- Colorado State University forecaster
William Gray says he is inaugurating localized seasonal hurricane
predictions despite NOAA objections.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the non-National Weather
Service predictions might be misleading since they might contain low
probabilities people would take them too lightly.

Gray's team of scientists in Colorado said by the time a new Website is
officially released next month, the objections may be softened. The
preliminary site was taken down Monday.

The preliminary figures, for example, showed the percent probability of
a hurricane hitting Miami-Dade County, Fla., is only 8.7 percent.
Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale, Fla., is located. is 3.9 percent.
Broward has much less coastline than Miami-Dade.

....


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Localized hurricane predictions stir debate
 

All of this proves is that we have a long way to go in tropical cyclone
forecasting, concerning longer term objectives.

While an academic person might understand the meaning of percentage chances of
a hurricane strike, "Joe Public" does not. I have no objection to
"climatological chances" being posted, but the "seasonal predictions" have
dubious if not negative value.

Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove


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Localized hurricane predictions stir debate
 

HI Larry,

In article ,
WXAMERICA wrote:
} While an academic person might understand the meaning of percentage chances of
} a hurricane strike, "Joe Public" does not. I have no objection to
} "climatological chances" being posted, but the "seasonal predictions" have
} dubious if not negative value.

This is a good point, though a different one, I think, than that of the
original article. In both cases the concern is over misinterpretation of
the numbers. I think you are right that the seasonal predictions are
both less accurate and more likely to be misused, if for no other reason
than they get more attention.

peace,

-*-
Charles M. Kozierok )
Co-moderator, ne.weather.moderated (news:ne.weather.moderated)
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