Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

As one in the unsilent minority that finds snow unpleasant, VERY expensive
to deal with in my business and an aggregation, I ³enjoy² looking for signs
that the upcoming winter storm will take it relatively easy on me snow-wise.

I have been watching the two major models (the nam and gfs) and have noticed
that they have both trended warmer over the past few runs. In fact, if I
take the new nam (formally the ETA) as gospel, this will be mainly a rain
event for us here in Framingham/Ashland area and Boston as well at least
till mid tomorrow afternoon.

Specifics:

(1) This model outputs lots of water about 1.5², so if it were to be all
snow, we would get about 15² of very, hard to move snow. However, several
snow vs. rain parameters strongly suggest that we will not changeover around
here until mid Thursday PM. By then, lots of the 1.5² will have already
fallen.

(2) The 1000 - 500 mb thickness until mid PM is 5,400 meters+ and the 1000
- 850 mb thickness is 1,300+ until then at least mid PM.. The 1000 - 500 is
the thickness of the layer of the atmosphere from just above me to about
18,000 feet, while the 1000 - 850 is the thickness from just above me to a
little less that 5 K feet. As these layers warm, they expand, as they cool
they contract. Thus, thicknesses reflect the²average² temp of the layer in
question. The 5,400 meter threshold indicate that rain is just as likely as
snow, while above that figure, rain becomes more and more likely, while
below 1,300 meters, likelihood of snow increases dramatically. The 1,300
meter acts in like manner*.

(3) For frozen precip, we like to see the temperature at 850 mb (again a
little under 5,000 feet) to be below freezing (aka below 0C). This does not
happen until mid/late tomorrow PM according to nam model.

(4) These, and other parameters, taken individually do not assure rain vs
snow, but several taken together help seal the deal for rain.

I have found it troubling (or for me untroubling) that there is little/no
sign of cold high pressure to our north. Without this feature, storms are
not blocked and tend to move much closer to S. NE coast which translates to
warmer. Furthermore, lack of frigid high means lack of cold feed.
(Compare this to synoptic conditions at Blizzard 2005!)

By the time it could around here, only about .4 or .5² melted remain (light
precip over many hours) so we get 4+² around here?

Warnings-I am not a meteorologist and only attempt forecasts as a hobby.
This is only a semi confident stab at reality. It may well pan out, but
then again... I have not seem the newest gfs model so am basing the above
solely on the nam model. However, the gfsl as well has trended warmer and
warm. Also, remember that this is location specific. NW of 495 should be a
very different story!)

Jot in Ashland, MA

*Using, pressure thickness formula, the ³average temp² of 1,300 meter
1000-500 thickness layer is approximately 0C.


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

Good call, Jot.

I have to admit, I hate nuisance snows, but I don't mind the big ones. I'm
a little disappointed to have to go in to work today. :)


"Jot Ross" wrote in message
...
As one in the unsilent minority that finds snow unpleasant, VERY expensive
to deal with in my business and an aggregation, I ³enjoy² looking for
signs
that the upcoming winter storm will take it relatively easy on me
snow-wise.

I have been watching the two major models (the nam and gfs) and have
noticed
that they have both trended warmer over the past few runs. In fact, if I
take the new nam (formally the ETA) as gospel, this will be mainly a rain
event for us here in Framingham/Ashland area and Boston as well at least
till mid tomorrow afternoon.

Specifics:

(1) This model outputs lots of water about 1.5², so if it were to be all
snow, we would get about 15² of very, hard to move snow. However, several
snow vs. rain parameters strongly suggest that we will not changeover
around
here until mid Thursday PM. By then, lots of the 1.5² will have already
fallen.

(2) The 1000 - 500 mb thickness until mid PM is 5,400 meters+ and the
1000
- 850 mb thickness is 1,300+ until then at least mid PM.. The 1000 - 500
is
the thickness of the layer of the atmosphere from just above me to about
18,000 feet, while the 1000 - 850 is the thickness from just above me to a
little less that 5 K feet. As these layers warm, they expand, as they
cool
they contract. Thus, thicknesses reflect the²average² temp of the layer
in
question. The 5,400 meter threshold indicate that rain is just as likely
as
snow, while above that figure, rain becomes more and more likely, while
below 1,300 meters, likelihood of snow increases dramatically. The 1,300
meter acts in like manner*.

(3) For frozen precip, we like to see the temperature at 850 mb (again a
little under 5,000 feet) to be below freezing (aka below 0C). This does
not
happen until mid/late tomorrow PM according to nam model.

(4) These, and other parameters, taken individually do not assure rain vs
snow, but several taken together help seal the deal for rain.

I have found it troubling (or for me untroubling) that there is little/no
sign of cold high pressure to our north. Without this feature, storms are
not blocked and tend to move much closer to S. NE coast which translates
to
warmer. Furthermore, lack of frigid high means lack of cold feed.
(Compare this to synoptic conditions at Blizzard 2005!)

By the time it could around here, only about .4 or .5² melted remain
(light
precip over many hours) so we get 4+² around here?

Warnings-I am not a meteorologist and only attempt forecasts as a hobby.
This is only a semi confident stab at reality. It may well pan out, but
then again... I have not seem the newest gfs model so am basing the above
solely on the nam model. However, the gfsl as well has trended warmer and
warm. Also, remember that this is location specific. NW of 495 should be
a
very different story!)

Jot in Ashland, MA

*Using, pressure thickness formula, the ³average temp² of 1,300 meter
1000-500 thickness layer is approximately 0C.


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam
block.)



--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

On 2/9/05 11:23 AM, in article , "Jot Ross"
wrote:

As one in the unsilent minority that finds snow unpleasant, VERY expensive
to deal with in my business and an aggregation, I ³enjoy² looking for signs
that the upcoming winter storm will take it relatively easy on me snow-wise.

I have been watching the two major models (the nam and gfs) and have noticed
that they have both trended warmer over the past few runs.

Whoa. Nice call Jot.

- Steve Stein


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

Jot Ross wrote in
:

I have been watching the two major models (the nam and gfs) and
have noticed that they have both trended warmer over the past
few runs. In fact, if I take the new nam (formally the ETA) as
gospel, this will be mainly a rain event for us here in
Framingham/Ashland area and Boston as well at least till mid
tomorrow afternoon.

You did so well on this forecast a couple of weeks ago, I'm hoping
you can call for mostly rain for us this time, too. :-)

Jim


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

in article , Jim at wrote
on 2/20/05 7:18 PM:

Jot Ross wrote in
:

I have been watching the two major models (the nam and gfs) and
have noticed that they have both trended warmer over the past
few runs. In fact, if I take the new nam (formally the ETA) as
gospel, this will be mainly a rain event for us here in
Framingham/Ashland area and Boston as well at least till mid
tomorrow afternoon.

You did so well on this forecast a couple of weeks ago, I'm hoping
you can call for mostly rain for us this time, too. :-)

Jim

Unfortunately, try as I might, I couldn't make it happen. However, with
just 2+ inches here in Framingham as of 9 AM Monday, looks like accumulation
will be tolerable (3 - 4"?) (Famous last words?)
Jot


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

You did so well on this forecast a couple of weeks ago, I'm hoping
you can call for mostly rain for us this time, too. :-)

I was thinking the same thing. Maybe he should start a newsletter we could
subscribe to! Maybe the TV weather people would also subscribe to it. ;)


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

Jot Ross wrote in
:

However, with
just 2+ inches here in Framingham as of 9 AM Monday, looks like
accumulation will be tolerable (3 - 4"?) (Famous last words?)

North Chelmsford (near Lowell, MA), we had about 5" as of nightfall.
There's still precip in the air, though I don't think it'll add to
the total.

Jim


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)

Jot's stab at a forecast, a "minority" view
 

in article , Jim at wrote
on 2/21/05 6:37 PM:

Jot Ross wrote in
:

However, with
just 2+ inches here in Framingham as of 9 AM Monday, looks like
accumulation will be tolerable (3 - 4"?) (Famous last words?)

North Chelmsford (near Lowell, MA), we had about 5" as of nightfall.
There's still precip in the air, though I don't think it'll add to
the total.

Jim

I got 4.8" here in Ashland. (If it hadn't dribbed and drabbed from noon
till 9 PM, 3 - 4" would have worked!)

Jot


--
This article was auto-posted by the ne.weather.moderated Weatherbot
program. The author is solely responsible for its content.

ne.weather.moderated FAQ/Charter: http://www.panix.com/~newm/faq.txt
ne.weather.moderated moderators e-mail:
(Please put "wx" or "weather" in the subject line to avoid the spam block.)