Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

Hello.

Can someone tell me the advantages/disadvantages of the following numerical
weather models in terms of weather forecasting?

ETA
MRF
MOS
NOGAPS
GEM

Specifically, I would like to know what the strengths and weaknesses of
these models are when using them to produce a weather forecast. If I am
missing any models, feel free to add them.

Thanks

Ed

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

: Can someone tell me the advantages/disadvantages of the following
numerical
: weather models in terms of weather forecasting?

See: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml


Jan Null, CCM
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Phone: (510) 657-2246
Email:
Webpage: http://ggweather.com

"Climate is what you expect,
Weather is what you get". ~ R. Heinlein

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

Edgar D. wrote:
Hello.

Can someone tell me the advantages/disadvantages of the following numerical
weather models in terms of weather forecasting?

ETA
MRF
MOS
NOGAPS
GEM

Specifically, I would like to know what the strengths and weaknesses of
these models are when using them to produce a weather forecast. If I am
missing any models, feel free to add them.

Thanks

Ed



There's no short answer. You name models that differ in a
number of ways. I don't know what GEM is.

Advantage of ETA is frequent runs and fine resolution.
Disadvantage is North American coverage and only run out to
80 hr on operational displays

The advantage of MRF, which is the operational reference to
the 00 UTC run of the GFS, is global or hemispheric coverage
out to long time periods (10 days)
Disadvantage is coarser resolution.

I have no experience with the Navy model, NOGAPS, since it
is not available on NWS operational displays. I hear it
does a nice job with wave heights.

MOS is not a model. It stands for Model Output Statistics.
MOS is forecast guidance produced from the NGM and GFS
models. It is produced with multivariate linear regression
of model output parameters and cranks out temp and precip
forecasts. Works well in benign conditions. Works less
well around weather systems.

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

"Dennis M. Rodgers" wrote in message
...


There's no short answer. You name models that differ in a
number of ways. I don't know what GEM is.

.... Canadian model: if you have full Internet connection, you can see
output via Environment Canada site:-

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/charts/index_e.html

Martin.

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

In article ,
"Dennis M. Rodgers" wrote:
Edgar D. wrote:
Can someone tell me the advantages/disadvantages of the following numerical
weather models in terms of weather forecasting?

ETA
MRF
MOS
NOGAPS
GEM
[snip]
MOS is not a model. It stands for Model Output Statistics.
MOS is forecast guidance produced from the NGM and GFS
models. It is produced with multivariate linear regression
of model output parameters and cranks out temp and precip
forecasts. Works well in benign conditions. Works less
well around weather systems.

That's handy.



Cheers, Phred.

--
LID

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

Dennis M. Rodgers wrote:
Edgar D. wrote:

Hello.

Can someone tell me the advantages/disadvantages of the following
numerical
weather models in terms of weather forecasting?

ETA
MRF
MOS
NOGAPS
GEM

Specifically, I would like to know what the strengths and weaknesses of
these models are when using them to produce a weather forecast. If I am
missing any models, feel free to add them.

Thanks

Ed



[snip]
MOS is not a model. It stands for Model Output Statistics. MOS is
forecast guidance produced from the NGM and GFS models. It is produced
with multivariate linear regression of model output parameters and
cranks out temp and precip forecasts. Works well in benign conditions.
Works less well around weather systems.


MOS is also produced for the ETA model.

MOS can be a powerful tool for cases that happen again and
again. For rare events, however, that fall outside the realm
of its statistical database, it can go significantly awry.
In addition, I seem to recall it becomes progressively more
heavily weighted towards climatology as you go out into
the future. MOS works well in benign conditions only to
the extent that benign conditions occurred frequently
when the statistical model was constructed.

Scott

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

Scott Lindstrom wrote:

MOS is also produced for the ETA model.

MOS can be a powerful tool for cases that happen again and
again. For rare events, however, that fall outside the realm
of its statistical database, it can go significantly awry.
In addition, I seem to recall it becomes progressively more
heavily weighted towards climatology as you go out into
the future. MOS works well in benign conditions only to
the extent that benign conditions occurred frequently
when the statistical model was constructed.

MOS statistics are continually updated for both the GFS and Eta models.
NGM MOS is frozen. When Eta MOS first appeared a few years ago, it
did a poor job. Now, it often does better then the GFS and NGM.

-db-

+-------------------------------------------------------------+
| David O. Blanchard Flagstaff, Arizona |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+

Strengths/weaknesses of Numerical Models
 

Hi Ed,

Working day in day out with models exposes model strength and
weakness. The ETA has done an awful job on development and timing of
precipitation in the southern US over the past year, especially when
southern branch energy is invoved. The ETA is too dry and too slow. It
used to be a great model for just this type of weather but not any
more. The ETA has been overdeveloping low pressure areas along the
southeast coast over the past couple of years, while the GFS can be
underdone in the same situation. AVN MOS seems to be the most reliable
for high temps when clouds and rain are a good bet. These are some
examples and there are many more that will creep up day in day out.

Hope this helps
www.accuweather.com



"Edgar D." wrote in message news:o9Clb.149346$6C4.106098@pd7tw1no...
Hello.

Can someone tell me the advantages/disadvantages of the following numerical
weather models in terms of weather forecasting?

ETA
MRF
MOS
NOGAPS
GEM

Specifically, I would like to know what the strengths and weaknesses of
these models are when using them to produce a weather forecast. If I am
missing any models, feel free to add them.

Thanks

Ed