http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2...cal/news02.txt

Global warming expert shares 50 years of research
By SHERRY DEVLIN of the Missoulian

Dave Keeling talks about the increase in atmospheric
carbon dioxide at the University Center Theater at the University of
Montana on Wednesday. The graph behind him is the Keeling curve, which
shows the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere.
Photo by LOUIS MONTCLAIR/Missoulian
http://www.missoulian.com/content/ar...cal/news02.jpg

Homo sapiens - the self-proclaimed "wise ones" - have the ability to
do something about global warming, but they are not yet convinced it
is necessary, the nation's pre-eminent biophysicist said Wednesday.

And that makes it difficult for Dave Keeling to express much hope for
humankind.

"The only kind of optimism possible is at the same level as religion,"
Keeling said during a talk at the University of Montana. "I have to
have faith that we can pull this off."

Keeling, a professor of oceanography at Scripps Institution in La
Jolla, Calif., is not a religious man, though, so his presentation
focused primarily on what he knows after nearly 50 years of monitoring
carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

It was Keeling who pioneered the measurement of atmospheric carbon
dioxide from atop Hawaii's Mauna Loa volcano in 1955.

First, he established the baseline level of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere - what would be there if humans were not burning fossil
fuels.

Then he showed the increase in CO2 levels since the Industrial
Revolution. As of this past winter, the amount of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere was more than one-third higher than the pre-industrial
level.

And it increases every year, Keeling told participants in a three-day
conference of scientists who are monitoring climate change via
satellite-based software developed at UM.

Keeling's work was the foundation, said Steve Running, the UM
professor whose research team designed software for NASA's $1.3
billion Terra satellite, part of the $7 billion Earth Observing
System.

"We didn't really even see the entire globe until about 1982," Running
said. "Dave Keeling's Mauna Loa record gave us 20 years' warning that
humans could - and do - have a global impact.

"His work was the first real evidence we had."

The "Keeling curve" shows the jagged, but ever-higher concentration of
carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere, testimony to the
ever-increasing use of fossil fuels and the gradual warming of the
earth.

Now, scientists using the Terra satellite's earth science monitoring
equipment are beginning to document the ways in which life on earth
are changing.

"The carbon that's gone into coal, oil and natural gas took hundreds
of millions of years to accumulate," Running said. "But we will
release it all back into the atmosphere in just 200 years. That is the
big experiment.

"What happens when we release carbon dioxide a million times faster
than it was laid down on the earth?"

There are now 372 parts per million (by volume) of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere; the pre-industrial level was 277 ppm.

"And we could easily get to 1,000 ppm or 1,500 ppm in the years
ahead," Running said.

Of course, carbon dioxide is not the issue, he added. "It's the impact
of carbon dioxide on climate."

And while the global average temperature has increased by one degree,
"that's the least of it," Running said. Every day, the data collected
by Terra provides new evidence of global climate change.

"We are starting to see very tangible ecological examples, not just
computer models and projections," Running said. Glaciers are receding,
winter snowpacks are melting more quickly, summers are drier in the
northern Rocky Mountains, wildfires are larger and hotter.

"People actually find some of the changes pleasant," he said. "We have
wineries in this part of the world, where that just wasn't possible 20
years ago. Our gardens yield produce earlier and longer.

"I try to stay value-neutral when looking at these trends, because the
trends are what's important - because they are real."

Among scientists, global warming is no longer a question, said
Keeling.

"I've even come to accept it in the last five or six years," he said.
"The change has been greater than what would naturally occur."

"A large part of the educated world is pretty concerned," said
Keeling, who has a home in Hamilton. "The European community and Japan
are very concerned."

Only the United States is out of touch with the reality, he said.
Politicians, the media and the general public simply haven't decided
that global warming is real, or that it's dangerous.

But what to do? "I don't know," Keeling said. "Somehow or another, we
still have a chance to do something. But we need the public's support,
and the politicians.' "

At 76, Keeling is steering clear of politics. "I've been successful
because I stayed off just about every committee there is," he told
scientists at the UM conference, "and I'm not inclined to change."

Psalm 110 wrote in message . ..
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2...cal/news02.txt

[deletions]

Among scientists, global warming is no longer a question, said
Keeling.

"I've even come to accept it in the last five or six years," he said.
"The change has been greater than what would naturally occur."

"A large part of the educated world is pretty concerned," said
Keeling, who has a home in Hamilton. "The European community and Japan
are very concerned."

Only the United States is out of touch with the reality, he said.
Politicians, the media and the general public simply haven't decided
that global warming is real, or that it's dangerous.

He should have said "only the current Presidential Administration in
the United States is out of touch with reality" to be a little more
accurate. A lot of us here in the United States are NOT out of touch
with reality.

Jim Acker

------------------------------------
SwimJim
(formerly James G. Acker)


The great tragedy of science -- the
slaying of a beautiful hypothesis
by an ugly fact. - Thomas Huxley
------------------------------------

"SwimJim" wrote in message
om...
Psalm 110 wrote in message
. ..
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2...cal/news02.txt

[deletions]

Among scientists, global warming is no longer a question, said
Keeling.

"I've even come to accept it in the last five or six years," he said.
"The change has been greater than what would naturally occur."

"A large part of the educated world is pretty concerned," said
Keeling, who has a home in Hamilton. "The European community and Japan
are very concerned."

Only the United States is out of touch with the reality, he said.
Politicians, the media and the general public simply haven't decided
that global warming is real, or that it's dangerous.

He should have said "only the current Presidential Administration in
the United States is out of touch with reality" to be a little more
accurate. A lot of us here in the United States are NOT out of touch
with reality.

I think he was right about the general public, but wrong to confine it to
the US. Currently on the uk.sci.weather news group I seem to be the
only poster who recognises that the this year's flooding and last year's
record temperatures in the UK are symptoms of anthropogenic global
warming. The professional meteorologists, although accepting it is
part of global warming still cannot make up their minds that it is due to
carbon dioxide.

It is optimism that is going to destroy us. Even Keeling is optimistic,
and so he loses the power of his arguments. The Greenland ice
sheet is now doomed, (unless we greatly reduce the amount of
CO2 in the atmosphere) but still we go on hoping it is not true, or
won't happen in our life time. When we come to our senses, if we
ever do, it will be too late :-(.

Cheers, Alastair.

On Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:06:59 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"SwimJim" wrote in message
. com...
Psalm 110 wrote in message
...
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2...cal/news02.txt

[deletions]

Among scientists, global warming is no longer a question, said
Keeling.

"I've even come to accept it in the last five or six years," he said.
"The change has been greater than what would naturally occur."

"A large part of the educated world is pretty concerned," said
Keeling, who has a home in Hamilton. "The European community and Japan
are very concerned."

Only the United States is out of touch with the reality, he said.
Politicians, the media and the general public simply haven't decided
that global warming is real, or that it's dangerous.

He should have said "only the current Presidential Administration in
the United States is out of touch with reality" to be a little more
accurate. A lot of us here in the United States are NOT out of touch
with reality.

I think he was right about the general public, but wrong to confine it to
the US. Currently on the uk.sci.weather news group I seem to be the
only poster who recognises that the this year's flooding and last year's
record temperatures in the UK are symptoms of anthropogenic global
warming. The professional meteorologists, although accepting it is
part of global warming still cannot make up their minds that it is due to
carbon dioxide.

Please offer some definitive proof of this. As I've told you
repeatedly, individual weather events never have a single cause. If GW
is having an effect, you should have no trouble providing a clear
scientific basis for it. I'd be particularly interested in how you
feel GW and CO2 produced the excessive rain.

"David Ball" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:06:59 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"SwimJim" wrote in message
. com...
Psalm 110 wrote in message
...
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2...cal/news02.txt

[deletions]

Among scientists, global warming is no longer a question, said
Keeling.

"I've even come to accept it in the last five or six years," he said.
"The change has been greater than what would naturally occur."

"A large part of the educated world is pretty concerned," said
Keeling, who has a home in Hamilton. "The European community and Japan
are very concerned."

Only the United States is out of touch with the reality, he said.
Politicians, the media and the general public simply haven't decided
that global warming is real, or that it's dangerous.

He should have said "only the current Presidential Administration in
the United States is out of touch with reality" to be a little more
accurate. A lot of us here in the United States are NOT out of touch
with reality.

I think he was right about the general public, but wrong to confine it to
the US. Currently on the uk.sci.weather news group I seem to be the
only poster who recognises that the this year's flooding and last year's
record temperatures in the UK are symptoms of anthropogenic global
warming. The professional meteorologists, although accepting it is
part of global warming still cannot make up their minds that it is due to
carbon dioxide.

Please offer some definitive proof of this. As I've told you
repeatedly, individual weather events never have a single cause. If GW
is having an effect, you should have no trouble providing a clear
scientific basis for it. I'd be particularly interested in how you
feel GW and CO2 produced the excessive rain.

Jim,

And it is not just in the UK that weathermen are out of touch with reality. It
is true in Canada too!

Dave,

From a weatherman's POV the moist air rose from sea level to pass
over the Bodmin Moor, and the cooling caused the water vapour to
condense and fall as rain. The heavy rain on the moor was funneled
down by the river through a narrow gorge, which it had cut into the
cliffs. Te gorge was the site of a pretty fishing village. The flash flood
was impeded by a bridge over the river above the village. A small lake
formed upstread of the bridge which eventually gave way. When this
happend the surge of water burst the banks of the river and damaged
some of the building in the village.

From a climatologist's point of view, global warming has caused higher
sea surface temperatures which resulted in a greater frequency of hurricanes
during this season. Moeover, the warmer SST allowed a dying hurricane
to cross the Atlantic without losing its moisture. When Bonnie reached
Cornwall it deposited its remaining load, which was heavy enough to
bring down a road briidge. Basically, to put it in climatic terms, more
warming means more evaporation which means heavier rainfall.

Ten years ago British scientists were predicting more severe weather
for Britain due to global warming. We saw it two years ago and we are
seeing it again this year, not just in southern England but also in northern
Scotland where thre have been two incidents of motorist having to be
rescued from vehicles in flash flooding.

Of course you do not accept what I have written. But I thought I should
explain it for those who can understand these things. So for you Dave,
all I have got to say is "Now **** off!"

Cheers, Alastair.

In message , Alastair McDonald
k writes
"David Ball" wrote in message
.. .
On Thu, 19 Aug 2004 16:06:59 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"SwimJim" wrote in message
. com...
Psalm 110 wrote in message
...
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2...cal/news02.txt

[deletions]

Among scientists, global warming is no longer a question, said
Keeling.

"I've even come to accept it in the last five or six years," he said.
"The change has been greater than what would naturally occur."

"A large part of the educated world is pretty concerned," said
Keeling, who has a home in Hamilton. "The European community and Japan
are very concerned."

Only the United States is out of touch with the reality, he said.
Politicians, the media and the general public simply haven't decided
that global warming is real, or that it's dangerous.

He should have said "only the current Presidential Administration in
the United States is out of touch with reality" to be a little more
accurate. A lot of us here in the United States are NOT out of touch
with reality.

I think he was right about the general public, but wrong to confine it to
the US. Currently on the uk.sci.weather news group I seem to be the
only poster who recognises that the this year's flooding and last year's
record temperatures in the UK are symptoms of anthropogenic global
warming. The professional meteorologists, although accepting it is
part of global warming still cannot make up their minds that it is due to
carbon dioxide.

Please offer some definitive proof of this. As I've told you
repeatedly, individual weather events never have a single cause. If GW
is having an effect, you should have no trouble providing a clear
scientific basis for it. I'd be particularly interested in how you
feel GW and CO2 produced the excessive rain.

Jim,

And it is not just in the UK that weathermen are out of touch with reality. It
is true in Canada too!

Dave,

From a weatherman's POV the moist air rose from sea level to pass
over the Bodmin Moor, and the cooling caused the water vapour to
condense and fall as rain. The heavy rain on the moor was funneled
down by the river through a narrow gorge, which it had cut into the
cliffs. Te gorge was the site of a pretty fishing village. The flash flood
was impeded by a bridge over the river above the village. A small lake
formed upstread of the bridge which eventually gave way. When this
happend the surge of water burst the banks of the river and damaged
some of the building in the village.

From a climatologist's point of view, global warming has caused higher
sea surface temperatures which resulted in a greater frequency of hurricanes
during this season. Moeover, the warmer SST allowed a dying hurricane
to cross the Atlantic without losing its moisture. When Bonnie reached
Cornwall it deposited its remaining load, which was heavy enough to
bring down a road briidge. Basically, to put it in climatic terms, more
warming means more evaporation which means heavier rainfall.


It has actually been a relatively quiet hurricane season so far this
year. There is nothing at all unusual about hurricane remnants reaching
the British Isles and dumping very large amounts of rain. This has
happened from time to time throughout the historical record. It has
nothing to do with warmer sea surface temperatures (which I agree are
present). All it takes is for the tropical air associated with a dying
hurricane to get far enough north to get picked up by the mid-latitude
westerlies.


Ten years ago British scientists were predicting more severe weather
for Britain due to global warming. We saw it two years ago and we are
seeing it again this year, not just in southern England but also in northern
Scotland where thre have been two incidents of motorist having to be
rescued from vehicles in flash flooding.

The events of the past week in the UK are not unprecedented. Flash
floods in the SW have happened before. Landslides in Scotland happen
from time to time. Glen Ogle, where this week's landslides occurred, has
a history of such events. The railway which used to run through the glen
suffered from these.

Of course you do not accept what I have written. But I thought I should
explain it for those who can understand these things. So for you Dave,
all I have got to say is "Now **** off!"

Global warming has occurred and is continuing to increase. Therefore,
all weather that occurs now (severe and benign) is occurring in a
globally warmed environment. If the floods and landslides in some parts
of the British Isles this week are a direct result of global warming
then the largely fine weather in other parts (such as this part of
Buckinghamshire) must also be a direct result of global warming. The
reality must be very much more complicated than this simplistic
black/white scenario.

Being abusive to someone with an opinion different to yours does you no
credit, Alastair. Everyone is entitled to express their opinions. Those
who can back their opinions with good scientific evidence will have the
most credibility but abusiveness adds nothing to anyone's argument.


Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

On Thu, 19 Aug 2004 19:05:28 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


From a weatherman's POV the moist air rose from sea level to pass
over the Bodmin Moor, and the cooling caused the water vapour to
condense and fall as rain. The heavy rain on the moor was funneled
down by the river through a narrow gorge, which it had cut into the
cliffs. Te gorge was the site of a pretty fishing village. The flash flood
was impeded by a bridge over the river above the village. A small lake
formed upstread of the bridge which eventually gave way. When this
happend the surge of water burst the banks of the river and damaged
some of the building in the village.

` So what you're saying is that it was a combination of high
precipitation efficiency, precipitation duration and the shape/size of
the watershed the precipitation fell in. How is this different than
any heavy rain event?


From a climatologist's point of view, global warming has caused higher
sea surface temperatures which resulted in a greater frequency of hurricanes
during this season.

LOL. A demonstratable mistake, I'm afraid. There is no
research that has found any statistically significant change in
hurricane frequency. If you have one, please post a citation. I'm
interested in why you would expect to see such a trend when the
majority of the warming has been taking place at high northern
latitudes during the arctic winter and involves changes in overnight
lows. Is there some teleconnection between the overnight lows in
Inuvik and hurricane formation that the climate community is unaware
of? Keep in mind, that researchers haven't found a
trend...yet...because the ingredients necessary for hurricane
formation have not been sufficiently altered to produce such a trend.

Moeover, the warmer SST allowed a dying hurricane
to cross the Atlantic without losing its moisture. When Bonnie reached
Cornwall it deposited its remaining load, which was heavy enough to
bring down a road briidge. Basically, to put it in climatic terms, more
warming means more evaporation which means heavier rainfall.

And dying hurricanes have never found their way across the
north Atlantic before? If they have, what allowed them to do so?
Presumably, if it occurred 50 years ago, you cannot blame the result
on GW.


Ten years ago British scientists were predicting more severe weather
for Britain due to global warming. We saw it two years ago and we are
seeing it again this year, not just in southern England but also in northern
Scotland where thre have been two incidents of motorist having to be
rescued from vehicles in flash flooding.

And undoubtedly as GW extends further out of the high
latitudes we'll see changes in severe weather trends. None have been
found so far. Attempting to link every severe weather event with GW is
simply wrong.



Of course you do not accept what I have written. But I thought I should
explain it for those who can understand these things. So for you Dave,
all I have got to say is "Now **** off!"

Of course not, because you're wrong. I'm sorry you don't like
it, but facts are facts and there is nothing your strident offerings
can do to change that.

On Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:13:07 -0500, David Ball
wrote:

individual weather events never have a single cause.

I'd be particularly interested in how you
feel GW and CO2 produced the excessive rain.

If you don't know the linkages between excess retained heat energy and
evaporation-precipitation by now you never will.

There is more HEAT ENERGY in the global systen as CO2 rises. No
arguing this point is tolerated at this late date.

On Fri, 20 Aug 2004 03:09:04 GMT, Psalm 110
wrote:

On Thu, 19 Aug 2004 12:13:07 -0500, David Ball
wrote:

individual weather events never have a single cause.

I'd be particularly interested in how you
feel GW and CO2 produced the excessive rain.

If you don't know the linkages between excess retained heat energy and
evaporation-precipitation by now you never will.

There is more HEAT ENERGY in the global systen as CO2 rises. No
arguing this point is tolerated at this late date.

I'm asking for definitive proof of the role it played in THIS
event. No hand-waving. No scary stories. Just some facts. Prove what
you are saying.

"Alastair McDonald" k

It is optimism that is going to destroy us. Even Keeling is optimistic,
and so he loses the power of his arguments. The Greenland ice
sheet is now doomed...


Uh huh. Sure it is.

You could carpet all of Greenland with space-heaters positioned a foot
apart, and it'd still take a thousand years to melt.


(Is is just me, or has anyone else noticed that nothing intelligent has
*ever* appeared out of freeserve.co.uk? -- Is it like British AOL?)

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick