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#11
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St. Helens erupted in May of 1980 and the largest hurricane of that
year was Allen Pinatuba erupted June of 1991 and the largest hurricane of that year was Bob After reading the history of the hurricane seasons for the early 1980s and the years around 1991, I believe the volcanic eruptions made those hurricane seasons of 1980 and 1991 less destructive than if no eruption had occurred. The ash of Pinatuba and St. Helens was not concentrated over the Atlantic where hurricanes are spawned, so the volcanoes only ameliorated the hurricane formation. Most of the 1980 hurricanes stayed out at sea and were downgraded to tropical storms. When Pinatuba occurred the hurricane season in the USA was altered in path in that Bob meandered up north. But 1991 hurricanes were weak compared to 1992. The aim of Aluminium Sequin placed in orbit is not to alter the course or path of hurricanes but to thwart the formation of hurricanes. Both St. Helens and Pinatuba had an effect on the hurricane season for their respective years but that effect was a minor effect simply because the volcanic ash was not large over the Atlantic basin where hurricanes are formed. Aluminium Sequin in orbit will be concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf basins and thus a large effect as to hurricane formation. If enough aluminium is placed in orbit then we can have a season where no hurricanes are formed. Archimedes Plutonium www.iw.net/~a_plutonium whole entire Universe is just one big atom where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies |
#12
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In article .com,
says... Harold Brooks wrote: (snipped) Harold, you seem to have a good command of the facts, and I suppose you lived through the Mt. St. Helens eruption and also the Pinatuba, Philippine eruption. I forget the precise year of St. Helens, ??1980?? and the precise year of Pinatuba ??1993??. So I wonder, Harold, can you supply us with the facts of St. Helens and Pinatuba as to the amount of ash in atmosphere, the latitude concentration of that ash and whether the summers of those volcanoes had any hurricanes and what magnitude of hurricanes. If memory serves me the St. Helens ash was washed out of the atmosphere after about 8 months. Ash typically washes out quickly. It's not important for climate. SO2 is the climaticly important output, mixing with H2O to form sulfuric acid aerosols. I'll summarize the output, but there's no way that the aerosol distribution can be summarized. I recall that El Chichon quickly dispersed into a homogeneous band from the equator and 30 N, before slowly expanding northward, reaching Ann Arbor, MI in early October. Pinatubo (June 1991) was a VEI 6 eruption, putting out 10 cubic km of tephra and 20 million tons of SO2. Mt. St. Helens (May 1980) was VEI 5, so an order of magnitude less explosive, with little SO2. El Chichon (April 1982) was also VEI 5, but put out 10 times as much SO2. Pinatubo had the biggest effect on global temperatures and El Chichon was ssecond, with most of its effect in the northern hemsisphere. Stuff on satellite observation of volcanic aerosols at: http://denali.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/so2/article.html On the hurricanes, from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_p...tl/ATLdate.dat 1980: Name Year Month Day Hour Max Press Lat Long Wind at MW at MW at MW knots mb deg N deg W ALLEN 1980 8 8 18 165 899 21.8 86.4 BONNIE 1980 8 17 18 85 975 25.8 39.4 CHARLEY 1980 8 24 18 70 990 38.0 64.7 DANIELLE 1980 9 6 18 50 1004 29.4 93.4 EARL 1980 9 10 06 65 995 45.2 36.0 FRANCES 1980 9 9 12 100 960 13.0 31.3 GEORGES 1980 9 8 06 70 993 42.9 55.1 HERMINE 1980 9 24 06 60 993 18.8 94.4 IVAN 1980 10 10 12 90 978 37.8 39.1 JEANNE 1980 11 12 00 85 988 24.1 87.4 KARL 1980 11 27 18 75 985 37.1 40.5 1982 ALBERTO 1982 6 4 18 75 985 24.0 83.6 SUBTROP 1 1982 6 5 18 60 990 45.4 56.0 BERYL 1982 9 1 12 63 998 18.8 41.7 CHRIS 1982 9 11 12 55 994 29.8 93.8 DEBBY 1982 9 18 00 115 950 38.8 62.3 ERNESTO 1982 10 2 00 60 997 28.5 66.2 1991 ANA 1991 7 5 00 45 1001 38.0 57.5 BOB 1991 8 19 06 100 950 36.5 74.5 CLAUDETTE 1991 9 7 12 115 946 27.2 61.7 DANNY 1991 9 10 12 45 999 15.3 49.7 ERIKA 1991 9 11 06 50 998 36.8 35.0 FABIAN 1991 10 17 00 40 1009 30.0 75.5 GRACE 1991 10 29 12 85 982 31.5 63.2 UNNAMED 1991 11 2 00 65 981 39.5 65.7 1956 (Bezymianny eruption) NOT NAMED 1956 6 13 12 50 1004 27.5 90.9 ANNA 1956 7 27 00 70 1002 21.9 98.4 BETSY 1956 8 11 18 105 979 14.4 56.0 CARLA 1956 9 8 00 45 -999 27.3 74.3 DORA 1956 9 12 00 60 1004 21.4 96.0 ETHEL 1956 9 13 00 60 999 27.3 72.7 FLOSSY 1956 9 24 12 80 -999 29.5 88.7 GRETA 1956 11 5 12 120 970 25.3 61.0 1912 (Katmai eruption) NOT NAMED 1912 6 11 00 50 -999 24.7 89.9 NOT NAMED 1912 7 15 12 45 -999 31.3 80.7 NOT NAMED 1912 9 12 06 70 -999 28.5 84.8 NOT NAMED 1912 10 7 18 80 -999 33.1 75.3 NOT NAMED 1912 10 13 06 85 -999 20.8 87.3 NOT NAMED 1912 11 18 00 130 -999 17.6 78.7 You can other basin data from the aoml.noaa.gov/hrd site. -- Harold Brooks hebrooks87 hotmail.com |
#13
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#14
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Thanks for your time and energy in posting the above data. David H ~~~~~~~~~~~` |
#15
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Harold Brooks wrote:
(all else snipped) That's pretty unlikely. What's the explanation for 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1993, and 1994 having less intense hurricanes than 1980 or 1991? Debatable. Andrew was the strongest of the two years, but the next two strongest ones, Claudette (115 kt maximum) and Bob (100 kt) were both 1991 hurricanes. Bonnie and Charley (both 95 kts in 1992) were 4th and 5th, Grace (1991-85 kts) was 6th. Not much difference there, if any. 8 storms reached tropical storm status (one of them unnamed) in 1991 and 6 did in 1992 (with another subtropical storm in the list). And your plan for moving all that heat from the tropics northward is? Little, if any, of Mt. St. Helens output was still in the atmosphere by the main part of hurricane season. It was a low sulfur eruption and the blast was horizontal, so not even much of the tephra got into the stratosphere, where residence times are longer. Ash typically washes out quickly. It's not important for climate. SO2 is the climaticly important output, mixing with H2O to form sulfuric acid aerosols. I'll summarize the output, but there's no way that the aerosol distribution can be summarized. I recall that El Chichon quickly dispersed into a homogeneous band from the equator and 30 N, before slowly expanding northward, reaching Ann Arbor, MI in early October. Pinatubo (June 1991) was a VEI 6 eruption, putting out 10 cubic km of tephra and 20 million tons of SO2. Mt. St. Helens (May 1980) was VEI 5, so an order of magnitude less explosive, with little SO2. El Chichon (April 1982) was also VEI 5, but put out 10 times as much SO2. Pinatubo had the biggest effect on global temperatures and El Chichon was ssecond, with most of its effect in the northern hemsisphere. Stuff on satellite observation of volcanic aerosols at: http://denali.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/so2/article.html On the hurricanes, from http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_p...tl/ATLdate.dat 1980: Name Year Month Day Hour Max Press Lat Long Wind at MW at MW at MW knots mb deg N deg W ALLEN 1980 8 8 18 165 899 21.8 86.4 BONNIE 1980 8 17 18 85 975 25.8 39.4 CHARLEY 1980 8 24 18 70 990 38.0 64.7 DANIELLE 1980 9 6 18 50 1004 29.4 93.4 EARL 1980 9 10 06 65 995 45.2 36.0 FRANCES 1980 9 9 12 100 960 13.0 31.3 GEORGES 1980 9 8 06 70 993 42.9 55.1 HERMINE 1980 9 24 06 60 993 18.8 94.4 IVAN 1980 10 10 12 90 978 37.8 39.1 JEANNE 1980 11 12 00 85 988 24.1 87.4 KARL 1980 11 27 18 75 985 37.1 40.5 1982 ALBERTO 1982 6 4 18 75 985 24.0 83.6 SUBTROP 1 1982 6 5 18 60 990 45.4 56.0 BERYL 1982 9 1 12 63 998 18.8 41.7 CHRIS 1982 9 11 12 55 994 29.8 93.8 DEBBY 1982 9 18 00 115 950 38.8 62.3 ERNESTO 1982 10 2 00 60 997 28.5 66.2 1991 ANA 1991 7 5 00 45 1001 38.0 57.5 BOB 1991 8 19 06 100 950 36.5 74.5 CLAUDETTE 1991 9 7 12 115 946 27.2 61.7 DANNY 1991 9 10 12 45 999 15.3 49.7 ERIKA 1991 9 11 06 50 998 36.8 35.0 FABIAN 1991 10 17 00 40 1009 30.0 75.5 GRACE 1991 10 29 12 85 982 31.5 63.2 UNNAMED 1991 11 2 00 65 981 39.5 65.7 1956 (Bezymianny eruption) NOT NAMED 1956 6 13 12 50 1004 27.5 90.9 ANNA 1956 7 27 00 70 1002 21.9 98.4 BETSY 1956 8 11 18 105 979 14.4 56.0 CARLA 1956 9 8 00 45 -999 27.3 74.3 DORA 1956 9 12 00 60 1004 21.4 96.0 ETHEL 1956 9 13 00 60 999 27.3 72.7 FLOSSY 1956 9 24 12 80 -999 29.5 88.7 GRETA 1956 11 5 12 120 970 25.3 61.0 1912 (Katmai eruption) NOT NAMED 1912 6 11 00 50 -999 24.7 89.9 NOT NAMED 1912 7 15 12 45 -999 31.3 80.7 NOT NAMED 1912 9 12 06 70 -999 28.5 84.8 NOT NAMED 1912 10 7 18 80 -999 33.1 75.3 NOT NAMED 1912 10 13 06 85 -999 20.8 87.3 NOT NAMED 1912 11 18 00 130 -999 17.6 78.7 You can other basin data from the aoml.noaa.gov/hrd site. -- Harold Brooks Thanks for the information, for it leaves me with the impression that past volcanic activity did not affect by much the hurricane activities. I was hoping to use volcanic ash as a sort of modelling to the application of Aluminium Sequin in orbit to cool Earth. But the data suggests volcanic ash is no good for a modelling tool. I would be remotely interested whether the most fierce volcanoes such as Krakatoa ?? year ?? whether they preempted the formation of all hurricanes when they exploded. But I guess we have no means of finding out whether any hurricanes formed after Krakatoa exploded and no "fossil imprint of hurricanes in the past". Perhaps there is a budding new science or technique that can tell us whether in the year of Krakatoa or succeeding years after Krakatoa as to whether the hurricane activities were stopped for several years. Kind of hard to leave a fossil imprint when the activity is mainly water and air activity. Is there a living creature that is associated with hurricanes and can thus offer some clue as to the number and frequency of hurricanes in the history before humanity recorded hurricanes? I guess the only question that Harold raised that is pertinent above is the question of what I do with all the heat of the tropics when installing Aluminium Sequin. Well it is expected that the sequin would decrease the heat of the tropics since it would reflect much of the Sun rays in the equatorial belt. If my plan works well, then no hurricane will ever be formed in the Atlantic or Gulf waters because of the amount of reflection of incoming Sun rays. What I am not so sure of is whether any harm to the Gulf Stream that keeps northern Europe warm. There is going to be a diminuation of the Gulf Stream that travels to Europe, but I expect that it is only a small decrease. In fact the weather of Europe has been goofy and strange for the past 20 years and by putting Aluminium Sequin in orbit should restore the weather of England and Europe to what it was circa 1950s. As we control weather and climate via Aluminium sequin we provide stability to climate. If we do nothing, then we are at the whims of strange, odd weather patterns. Looking back, all of us should have and could have said that as Global Warming increases that the first biggest upsets of civilization will be killer hurricanes that destroy entire regions of the USA and make it uninhabitable. So, volcanic activity of the past is not going to be able to model the application of Aluminum Sequin. Thus we need to prepare for a test application of sequin as soon as possible. Send a rocket in the next few months to deposit sequin in orbit over the Gulf and Atlantic waters. See how it works and behaves and then make preparation for the real application of Aluminium Sequin before the summer of 2006. Archimedes Plutonium www.iw.net/~a_plutonium whole entire Universe is just one big atom where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies |
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