Steve Bloom wrote:
"dan" wrote in message
...

Just an ordinary year. Couldn't be global warming. Nah.

Holy ****, is this going to start happening every year, or even get worse?



I wonder how many cat 4 or 5 hurricanes there have been this late in the
season in prior years.



That's a difficult question to answer for times
before frequent recon -- Wilma, for example,
would not likely be recorded as a cat 4 or 5 based
on ship reports alone.

What a beautiful storm from satellite!!

Scott

dan wrote:
Just an ordinary year. Couldn't be global warming. Nah.

Do observe:

Wilma's rapid intensification took place over waters of
near normal sea surface temperatures:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif

Atheist 4 Bush (reformed) wrote:

Do observe:

Wilma's rapid intensification took place over waters of
near normal sea surface temperatures:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif


It's hard to tell with such a poor resolution mapping,
but it looks to me like SSTs are almost 2C above normal
where Wilma bombed out.

I will also point out that SSTs are only part of the
story. If the very warm water is much deeper than
normal, then heat content anomalies will be huge. [Of
course there is no way to tell that ]


Scott

Scott wrote:
Atheist 4 Bush (reformed) wrote:

Do observe:

Wilma's rapid intensification took place over waters of
near normal sea surface temperatures:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif


It's hard to tell with such a poor resolution mapping,
but it looks to me like SSTs are almost 2C above normal
where Wilma bombed out.

I will also point out that SSTs are only part of the
story. If the very warm water is much deeper than
normal, then heat content anomalies will be huge. [Of
course there is no way to tell that ]

Thermal Mass. There is a way to tell, you measure the water
temperatures. We used to put little digital temperature data loggers in
steel pipes with caps, and hang them down there for weeks and months.

wrote:
Scott wrote:

Atheist 4 Bush (reformed) wrote:


Do observe:

Wilma's rapid intensification took place over waters of
near normal sea surface temperatures:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/...sstanomaly.gif


It's hard to tell with such a poor resolution mapping,
but it looks to me like SSTs are almost 2C above normal
where Wilma bombed out.

I will also point out that SSTs are only part of the
story. If the very warm water is much deeper than
normal, then heat content anomalies will be huge. [Of
course there is no way to tell that ]


Thermal Mass. There is a way to tell, you measure the water
temperatures. We used to put little digital temperature data loggers in
steel pipes with caps, and hang them down there for weeks and months.


There is very little historical data depth of, say,
the 28 C isotherm in the NW Caribbean. Yes, there is a way
to tell, but was it done in the past? Only very rarely --
certainly not often enough to develop a reliable
climatology.


Scott

If the past is the last 15 years, then yes.

http://www.globalcoral.org/monitorin...ting_sea_s.htm

Our concerns were a little different back then, but the result was
still the same.

On Wed, 19 Oct 2005 06:19:25 GMT, "Steve Bloom"
wrote:


"dan" wrote in message
...
Just an ordinary year. Couldn't be global warming. Nah.

Holy ****, is this going to start happening every year, or even get worse?


I wonder how many cat 4 or 5 hurricanes there have been this late in the
season in prior years.

Two - Mitch (98), and Hattie (61)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/cat5storms.htm

Interestingly, only 6 of the CAT 5's were in hot August, and 18 were
in September. This year it's one per month, and each one selects
something from the record-book.

Even if Landsea's Lost n Found project finds a few corrections from
the past, he's gonna have to hum a pretty good tune to say the
intensity increases predicted by the AGW models weren't showing up,
eh?

owl wrote:
On Wed, 19 Oct 2005 06:19:25 GMT, "Steve Bloom"
wrote:


"dan" wrote in message
...

Just an ordinary year. Couldn't be global warming. Nah.

Holy ****, is this going to start happening every year, or even get worse?


I wonder how many cat 4 or 5 hurricanes there have been this late in the
season in prior years.


Two - Mitch (98), and Hattie (61)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/cat5storms.htm

Interestingly, only 6 of the CAT 5's were in hot August, and 18 were
in September.

Why is that at all interesting? September is the peak hurricane
month -- why shouldn't you expect more strong hurricanes in Sept?
You seem to be implying that SSTs are remarkably warmer in August
than in September. Are you? On what basis?

Scott

On Wed, 19 Oct 2005 10:55:27 -0500, Scott
wrote:

owl wrote:
On Wed, 19 Oct 2005 06:19:25 GMT, "Steve Bloom"
wrote:


"dan" wrote in message
...

Just an ordinary year. Couldn't be global warming. Nah.

Holy ****, is this going to start happening every year, or even get worse?


I wonder how many cat 4 or 5 hurricanes there have been this late in the
season in prior years.


Two - Mitch (98), and Hattie (61)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/cat5storms.htm

Interestingly, only 6 of the CAT 5's were in hot August, and 18 were
in September.

Why is that at all interesting? September is the peak hurricane
month -- why shouldn't you expect more strong hurricanes in Sept?
You seem to be implying that SSTs are remarkably warmer in August
than in September. Are you? On what basis?

Scott

Feel better?

owl wrote:
On Wed, 19 Oct 2005 10:55:27 -0500, Scott
wrote:


owl wrote:

On Wed, 19 Oct 2005 06:19:25 GMT, "Steve Bloom"
wrote:



"dan" wrote in message
...


Just an ordinary year. Couldn't be global warming. Nah.

Holy ****, is this going to start happening every year, or even get worse?


I wonder how many cat 4 or 5 hurricanes there have been this late in the
season in prior years.


Two - Mitch (98), and Hattie (61)

http://www.weathermatrix.net/tropical/cat5storms.htm

Interestingly, only 6 of the CAT 5's were in hot August, and 18 were
in September.

Why is that at all interesting? September is the peak hurricane
month -- why shouldn't you expect more strong hurricanes in Sept?
You seem to be implying that SSTs are remarkably warmer in August
than in September. Are you? On what basis?

Scott


Feel better?

Actually, no change. Gonna answer the question?

btw, re-learned a word today: trochoidal. Where's my
super-spirograph? What a great satellite loop of Wilma.

scott