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Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Greetings,
When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? curious -het -- "I'm not an atheist. I couldn't not believe in an imaginary being. That is just too twisted." -A. Whitney Brown Energy Alternatives: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energy.html H.E. Taylor http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/ |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
H. E. Taylor wrote: When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? I don't believe there is one per se -but a recent report said the season has started early. Whilst we are on the subject, anyone care to explain the legend on this site: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ ? And whilst I am draining the burden of all crania, may I ask if there is any corresponence with extreme cold weather anywhere on an arc of 90 degrees of their occurence while there are extremely high temperatures some 15 degrees down the road? (Wouldn't that be an handy tool if it were so?) Nah! Not possible. |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
"H. E. Taylor" wrote in message
... Greetings, When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? curious -het From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology... "What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S. from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado probability graphics, which include distribution during the year." http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl -- TQ |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT
adelphia.net says... "H. E. Taylor" wrote in message ... Greetings, When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? curious -het From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology... "What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S. from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado probability graphics, which include distribution during the year." http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year. Harold -- Harold Brooks Head, Mesoscale Applications Group NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Harold Brooks wrote: In article . com, says... Whilst we are on the subject, anyone care to explain the legend on this site: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ ? Which part of the legend? I was wondering why the blocks were set out the way they were. Over on the western side the blue paterns were large boxes but the ones for the wind in the middle are divided into small squares. is there any corresponence with extreme cold weather anywhere on an arc of 90 degrees of their occurence while there are extremely high temperatures some 15 degrees down the road? (Wouldn't that be an handy tool if it were so?) I can't understand what you're saying here. You probably won't be familiar with this but there is a marked relationship with the epicentre of largish earthquakes and the storms that appear in their shadow zones. Recently I noticed that every hurricane in the North Atlantic last season occurred with periods of dull, calm overcast, or even thick fog on occasion, in western Europe. I was wondering if the record cold weather in Germany during the severe cell storm or whatever it's called, that held the tornados was also a commonality. |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
In article . com,
says... Harold Brooks wrote: In article . com, says... Whilst we are on the subject, anyone care to explain the legend on this site: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ ? Which part of the legend? I was wondering why the blocks were set out the way they were. Over on the western side the blue paterns were large boxes but the ones for the wind in the middle are divided into small squares. The warnings are for counties. Counties tend to be larger in the western US. is there any corresponence with extreme cold weather anywhere on an arc of 90 degrees of their occurence while there are extremely high temperatures some 15 degrees down the road? (Wouldn't that be an handy tool if it were so?) I can't understand what you're saying here. You probably won't be familiar with this but there is a marked relationship with the epicentre of largish earthquakes and the storms that appear in their shadow zones. No, there isn't. Recently I noticed that every hurricane in the North Atlantic last season occurred with periods of dull, calm overcast, or even thick fog on occasion, in western Europe. I was wondering if the record cold weather in Germany during the severe cell storm or whatever it's called, that held the tornados was also a commonality. No. Harold -- Harold Brooks hebrooks87 hotmail.com |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Harold Brooks wrote: In article . com, says... I was wondering why the blocks were set out the way they were. Over on the western side the blue paterns were large boxes but the ones for the wind in the middle are divided into small squares. The warnings are for counties. Counties tend to be larger in the western US. Thanks for that. is there any corresponence with extreme cold weather anywhere on an arc of 90 degrees of their occurence while there are extremely high temperatures some 15 degrees down the road? (Wouldn't that be an handy tool if it were so?) I can't understand what you're saying here. You probably won't be familiar with this but there is a marked relationship with the epicentre of largish earthquakes and the storms that appear in their shadow zones. No, there isn't. Recently I noticed that every hurricane in the North Atlantic last season occurred with periods of dull, calm overcast, or even thick fog on occasion, in western Europe. I was wondering if the record cold weather in Germany during the severe cell storm or whatever it's called, that held the tornados was also a commonality. No. Thanks for that, too. Would you mind supplying a link to the research if there is one online? It would help me to put that one to bed at least. |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
In article .com,
says... Harold Brooks wrote: In article . com, says... I was wondering why the blocks were set out the way they were. Over on the western side the blue paterns were large boxes but the ones for the wind in the middle are divided into small squares. The warnings are for counties. Counties tend to be larger in the western US. Thanks for that. is there any corresponence with extreme cold weather anywhere on an arc of 90 degrees of their occurence while there are extremely high temperatures some 15 degrees down the road? (Wouldn't that be an handy tool if it were so?) I can't understand what you're saying here. You probably won't be familiar with this but there is a marked relationship with the epicentre of largish earthquakes and the storms that appear in their shadow zones. No, there isn't. Recently I noticed that every hurricane in the North Atlantic last season occurred with periods of dull, calm overcast, or even thick fog on occasion, in western Europe. I was wondering if the record cold weather in Germany during the severe cell storm or whatever it's called, that held the tornados was also a commonality. No. Thanks for that, too. Would you mind supplying a link to the research if there is one online? It would help me to put that one to bed at least. There's no specific research, but a little knowledge of synoptic meteorology indicates that there's no reason to expect a relationship ~ 120 degrees of longitude apart in the mid-latitudes at the same time. A strong trough moving out of the lee of the Rockies could have a very deep trough associated with extreme cold anywhere or not at all. The last two big cold events in Germany that I can find any info on (16 Nov 2000, 23 Dec 2003) were associated with 1 weak tornado and none at all in the US. No research on the topic has been done because there's really no reason to do it. There are an infinite number of things that could be compared to tornado occurrence in the US. People start by working on those things that there's some physical reason to believe have a relationship. Extreme cold in Germany wouldn't be at the bottom of the infinite list, but it wouldn't be close to the top. Harold -- Harold Brooks Head, Mesoscale Applications Group NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Harold Brooks wrote: In article .com, says... Would you mind supplying a link to the research if there is one online? It would help me to put that one to bed at least. There's no specific research, but a little knowledge of synoptic meteorology indicates that there's no reason to expect a relationship ~ 120 degrees of longitude apart in the mid-latitudes at the same time. A strong trough moving out of the lee of the Rockies could have a very deep trough associated with extreme cold anywhere or not at all. The last two big cold events in Germany that I can find any info on (16 Nov 2000, 23 Dec 2003) were associated with 1 weak tornado and none at all in the US. No research on the topic has been done because there's really no reason to do it. There are an infinite number of things that could be compared to tornado occurrence in the US. People start by working on those things that there's some physical reason to believe have a relationship. Extreme cold in Germany wouldn't be at the bottom of the infinite list, but it wouldn't be close to the top. A small point I may have mislead you on is that I am not talking about degrees of longitude or latitude. You need a globe and a compass. Just watch some of the quakes posted on the NEIC site walking along a great circel on occasion. Obviously some days the list is too large and flooded with quake on different lines. But some days it runs clear and true. There is one prticular thread on which I was talking about the relationship with cyclones and earhtquakes on another forum some time ago. I'll find it and post the gist if I can ask you to bother reading it? If not, no harm done. By the way can you tell me if any region of the world has a major fog event ATM? I can find nothing on the subject. I suspect China. Perhaps one of the major deltas in that neck of the woods? |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
In article . com,
says... Harold Brooks wrote: In article .com, says... Would you mind supplying a link to the research if there is one online? It would help me to put that one to bed at least. There's no specific research, but a little knowledge of synoptic meteorology indicates that there's no reason to expect a relationship ~ 120 degrees of longitude apart in the mid-latitudes at the same time. A strong trough moving out of the lee of the Rockies could have a very deep trough associated with extreme cold anywhere or not at all. The last two big cold events in Germany that I can find any info on (16 Nov 2000, 23 Dec 2003) were associated with 1 weak tornado and none at all in the US. No research on the topic has been done because there's really no reason to do it. There are an infinite number of things that could be compared to tornado occurrence in the US. People start by working on those things that there's some physical reason to believe have a relationship. Extreme cold in Germany wouldn't be at the bottom of the infinite list, but it wouldn't be close to the top. A small point I may have mislead you on is that I am not talking about degrees of longitude or latitude. You need a globe and a compass. Just watch some of the quakes posted on the NEIC site walking along a great circel on occasion. Obviously some days the list is too large and flooded with quake on different lines. But some days it runs clear and true. There is one prticular thread on which I was talking about the relationship with cyclones and earhtquakes on another forum some time ago. I'll find it and post the gist if I can ask you to bother reading it? I've read your cyclones and earthquake stuff before and it's made no sense then, either. If not, no harm done. By the way can you tell me if any region of the world has a major fog event ATM? I can find nothing on the subject. I suspect China. Perhaps one of the major deltas in that neck of the woods? Fogs sufficiently common at this time of year that I'm sure there's a "major" (depending on your definition of major) fog event every day. -- Harold Brooks hebrooks87 hotmail.com |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Harold Brooks wrote:snip Nicely parried sir, nicely parried. |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
H. E. Taylor wrote: When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? The UK is due for a record low temperature/frost this evening. No doubt Wati is coming ashore and of course there are tornado warnings on hehttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ All mere coincidence of course. Yes! Really!! |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Harold Brooks wrote: Fogs sufficiently common at this time of year that I'm sure there's a "major" (depending on your definition of major) fog event every day. Just because something makes no sense, does not mean it isn't most of the answer. Consider how long Newton was kept waiting for the correct data after stumbling on the conclusion about the inverse square law and gravity. The last day of the last spell brought record cold temperatures in parts of the UK . It also brought heightened warnings of tornados and of course the spell took in thos two cyclones in Australia. Just coincidence. And meaningless kookery. Here is something that has been researched on the subject at hand: Nasa News Stories Archive March 15, 2006 NASA STUDY LINKS "SMOG" TO ARCTIC WARMING Ozone is formed from several other chemicals found in the atmosphere near the Earth's surface that come from both natural sources and human activities such as fossil fuel burning, cement manufacturing, fertilizer application and biomass burning. Ozone is one of several air pollutants regulated in the United States by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency. http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/New...031521918.html They have lost the plot of course but they formed a link, however tenuous. What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it. |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
Harold Brooks wrote: I see the part in the NASA release about warming Arctic winters, but I missed the bits about record cold in the UK, tornado warnings in the US, and tropical cyclones in Australia. What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it. I'm sure the research is continuing. That's the problem in a nutshell. Those in the know miss an awful lot. But since you have no way of disproving my ideas at the moment you may as well forget it. We have had an interesting spell and quite a lot of fireworks in it. Whether it is just coincidence remains to be seen. One thing is for certain you won't see it if you keep your eyes closed. |
Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
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Dumb question #7,822 - Twisters
In article .com,
says... Harold Brooks wrote: In article . com, says... Harold Brooks wrote: I see the part in the NASA release about warming Arctic winters, but I missed the bits about record cold in the UK, tornado warnings in the US, and tropical cyclones in Australia. What a pity they couldn't get someone to stick with it. I'm sure the research is continuing. That's the problem in a nutshell. Those in the know miss an awful lot. But since you have no way of disproving my ideas at the moment you may as well forget it. The burden of proof is on you. Your original "coincidence" would have been just as interesting with "record cold in UK", "no tornado warnings in US", and "tropical cyclones in Australia" as the combination you mentioned. Looking at anomalies of monthly-mean Central England Temperature and report-inflation-adjusted US tornadoes from 1970-2004, the correlation between US tornadoes and CET anomalies is 0.038. (Restricting it just to winter raises it to ~ 0.1.) Paying attention the time that two events happen at the same time and not paying attention all the time they don't is a bad idea. The biggest wintertime tornado outbreak in recent years in the US (21 January 1999) was associated with warm temperatures in the UK and flooding rain in the southwestern UK. We have had an interesting spell and quite a lot of fireworks in it. Whether it is just coincidence remains to be seen. One thing is for certain you won't see it if you keep your eyes closed. Another thing is that anecdotal evidence of a single combination of events doesn't mean very much, especially when you look at the combination and find that one of them is just as likely to occur as not, when one of the events happens. There you go with the closed mind again. You just pointed out another anomaly but because it was exactly opposite to the one I was on about, you see proof positive of negative proof. What I see is no relationship between the events. Take a stepback from defending your province and see the opportunity before you. Look at anomalies a little more attentively. You mentioned March in an earlier post. Mists and frosts occur here in March as often as not. Check out everything, leave no stone unturned and mybe the one true god will show you something. Other than science, I'm not defending any province. The systematic recorded data of occurrence of events (the anomalies) tell us that record cold temperatures in England tell us nothing about the occurrence of tornadoes in the US. If there are record cold temperatures, there might be tornadoes in the US. Then again, there might not be. The record cold temperatures in England tell me as much about tornado occurrence in the US as flipping coins or studying chicken entrails would. That's what you get from looking at the anomalies very attentively. But you really must try harder. As it happens I was calling all the shots in the hurricane season last year. Then I was left high and dry with notheing to explain the complete blank I was drawing this year. Then it all fell back into place with a big bang according to the way I have stated it tends to in my folkloric methodology. Just because I am on a steep curve doesn't mean I am heading in the wrong direction. Actually, you've never made enough verifiable predictions to provide any idea what direction you're running. With the precision you put out, you essentially forecast climatology. Get on the roller coaster or get off the effing tracks you muppet; because I will run you over without qualm. I don't tolerate rude people very well. Good-bye. Harold -- Harold Brooks Head, Mesoscale Applications Group NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory |
Dumb question Numero Uno - Tsunami
Harold Brooks wrote:
In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT adelphia.net says... "H. E. Taylor" wrote in message ... Greetings, When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? curious -het From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology... "What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S. from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado probability graphics, which include distribution during the year." http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year. Harold -- Harold Brooks Head, Mesoscale Applications Group NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory I feel it's best to be a litle rude to experts than for me to allow them to get away with murder: Consider what happened on this occasion. It isn't much but as far as I am aware it is the only or nearest thing to a forewarning about the BandaAtjeh business that I can find on the internet. Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it? "Michael Mcneil" wrote in message news:5ffe245abec2c9ca6a42dc5fe04cf5d4.45219@mygate .mailgate.org According to the BBC, the weather in the UK should be of the "interesting" variety on Thursday. Some uncertainty has been commensurate with the build up in magnitudes shown on the neic site. Again according to the Beeb the next one to look out for is on Sunday(ish.) They seem to be, if a little hesitant, more accurate than not. The next lunar phase is tomorrow (Saturday the 18th.) It is substantially the same as the last phase, although I haven't got a longitude. (I thought I had more time to look. (Naughty me!)) So, a break in the weather seems to have brought disaster and this next phase is probably going to be a similar spell which will run through to boxing day or thereabouts. But we always have a storm around Xmass time. I wonder what ship is going to go aground this time. -- Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1 At the time I was thinking more in terms of the annual event in the waters around Britain at Crismas time, a ship going aground in the soltice storms. As it happened the grounding took place off Scandinavia. But I canfes that the storms moved to the Equinoctial O/A rom that year. |
Dumb question Numero Uno - Tsunami
In article .com,
says... Harold Brooks wrote: In article , "TQ" ToweringQs AT adelphia.net says... "H. E. Taylor" wrote in message ... Greetings, When does the tornado season in the States usually begin? curious -het From http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/#Climatology... "What is tornado season? Tornado season usually means the peak period for historical tornado reports in an area, when averaged over the history of reports. There is a general northward shift in "tornado season" in the U.S. from late winter through mid summer. The peak period for tornadoes in the southern plains, for example, is during May into early June. On the Gulf coast, it is earlier during the spring; in the northern plains and upper Midwest, it is June or July. Remember: tornadoes can happen any time of year if the conditions are right! If you want to know the tornado peak periods for your area, Harold Brooks of NSSL has prepared numerous tornado probability graphics, which include distribution during the year." http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/hazard/hazardmap.html http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/hazgraph3.pl The fundamental problem is in defining "start" of the season at any location. Defining the midpoint is easy, but start is a more nebulous concept. There aren't any artificial dates, such as the 1 June for the hurricane season, and the areas of threat move around during the year. Harold -- Harold Brooks Head, Mesoscale Applications Group NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory I feel it's best to be a litle rude to experts than for me to allow them to get away with murder: Why in the world are you replying to my post to put this in? Consider what happened on this occasion. It isn't much but as far as I am aware it is the only or nearest thing to a forewarning about the BandaAtjeh business that I can find on the internet. What you quote yourself as writing below isn't remotely close to a "forewarning" for the tsunami. Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it? "Michael Mcneil" wrote in message news:5ffe245abec2c9ca6a42dc5fe04cf5d4.45219@mygate .mailgate.org According to the BBC, the weather in the UK should be of the "interesting" variety on Thursday. Some uncertainty has been commensurate with the build up in magnitudes shown on the neic site. Again according to the Beeb the next one to look out for is on Sunday(ish.) They seem to be, if a little hesitant, more accurate than not. The next lunar phase is tomorrow (Saturday the 18th.) It is substantially the same as the last phase, although I haven't got a longitude. (I thought I had more time to look. (Naughty me!)) So, a break in the weather seems to have brought disaster and this next phase is probably going to be a similar spell which will run through to boxing day or thereabouts. But we always have a storm around Xmass time. I wonder what ship is going to go aground this time. -- Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1 At the time I was thinking more in terms of the annual event in the waters around Britain at Crismas time, a ship going aground in the soltice storms. As it happened the grounding took place off Scandinavia. But I canfes that the storms moved to the Equinoctial O/A rom that year. -- Harold Brooks Head, Mesoscale Applications Group NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory |
Dumb question Numero Uno - Tsunami
Harold Brooks wrote:
What you quote yourself as writing below isn't remotely close to a "forewarning" for the tsunami. You absolute cretin. I was warning that there would be a disaster that spell and you saw millions die and that's all you have to say? Rot in hell. ********************* Perhaps someone else can do better. If so why not tell me about it? And if any jumped up paper pushers want to put me in their kill files for MySake if not God's -or any sexual one; keep me there. For any one meek enough and serious enough to want to know more, this is how that disasterous spell was forecast. (Harold Brooks, kindly **** off will you? Go and ply your trolls elsewhere.) The original thread was posted here. Similar posts may have been made to one or two other newsgroups around that time: http://groups.google.co.uk/group/sci...3ddbd546f85ec1 I got the times of the phases from Fred Espinak: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html#y2004 This gave a run of the phases as: JAN. 7 15 40 JAN. 15 4 46 JAN. 21 21 05 JAN. 29 6 03 FEB. 6 8 47 FEB. 13 13 40 FEB. 20 9 18 FEB. 28 3 24 MAR. 6 23 14 MAR. 13 21 01 MAR. 20 22 41 MAR. 28 23 48 APR. 5 11 03 APR. 12 3 46 APR. 19 13 21 APR. 27 17 32 MAY 4 20 33 MAY 11 11 04 MAY 19 4 52 MAY 27 7 57 JUNE 3 4 20 JUNE 9 20 02 JUNE 17 20 27 JUNE 25 19 08 JULY 2 11 09 JULY 9 7 34 JULY 17 11 24 JULY 25 3 37 JULY 31 18 05 AUG. 7 22 01 AUG. 16 1 24 AUG. 23 10 12 AUG. 30 2 22 SEPT. 6 15 11 SEPT. 14 14 29 SEPT. 21 15 54 SEPT. 28 13 09 OCT. 6 10 12 OCT. 14 2 48 OCT. 20 21 59 OCT. 28 3 07 NOV. 5 5 53 NOV. 12 14 27 NOV. 19 5 50 NOV. 26 20 07 DEC. 5 0 53 DEC. 12 1 29 DEC. 18 16 40 DEC. 26 15 06 The weather forecast was worked out by simply dividing the hour of the time of the phase by three. If it divided equally by 6 (that is: If he phase fell on 12 or 6 o'clock) that gave me dull overcast or misty weather (which we now know equates with the cyclonic maximum for the southern part of the North Atlantic.) If it divided by 3 but not by 6 ( i.e. 3 or 9 o'clock) that gave me the spell for thunder of the sort you could set your clock by in Abergele or Stoke on Trent. If it left a remainder of 1 hour (e.g.7 o'clock) that gave me the spells for the cyclonic weather over western Europe. If it divided by three to give a remainder of 2 (e.g. 5 o'clock) that put the cyclone at home on the longitude of Iceland. Of course only a fool would attempt to explain what caused this without knowing more about it. And a really stupid fool of the proportions of an Harold Brooks would attempt to poke at the system without making even a slight attempt to understand it. (Harold; I told you to **** off you ****! There is only more of this in store for you.) (I told you he was a bloody big fool didn't I?) OK, so let's take it from the middle of October: OCT. 14 2 48 OCT. 20 21 59 OCT. 28 3 07 NOV. 5 5 53 NOV. 12 14 27 NOV. 19 5 50 NOV. 26 20 07 DEC. 5 0 53 DEC. 12 1 29 DEC. 18 16 40 DEC. 26 15 06 These phases are written month day hour minute. From the precepts: http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...fd32adde2c5e/# The time is reduced to the nearest hour with an allowance of something in the region of 10 to 15 minutes. So tha the 14th OCT. 02:48 = 03:00 we get: 03:00 Thundery 22:00 Cyclonic. 03:00 Thundery 06:00 14:30 I would ave been thrown by this, then. It's half way between fine and thunder. A frontal system of rather difficult weather to get a fix on. Lots of broken occlusions or a mainly warm but an occluded front going to Norway. (So you see; they are still a PITA.) 06:00 20 00 00:00 01 30 This is an interesting one being a spell for intense cyclonic weather in the UK but an half of the thudery one. 16:40 15:00 This is a thunder spell. And for January the third: 18:00 Note they almost all divide nicely by 3. In fact so many were falling on that time I bet a synergistical system built up so that the spells ran through the ones that would normally have been different. And further, that one at 16:40 is a very unstable spell (as it happens, it is the time of phase for the spell at the moment (13 April 2006 16:40 ) if you want to look.) Check out what I have said about such types in the past. Had I known then what I know now, I would have been shouting a lot louder that something major was about to happen to the system. But I was uneasy about my abilities. (Which is why I was a little more gentle with Harold Brooks earlier on in this thread. Some-one drag away his sorry carcass now, will you?) (Someone else check what the Chandler Wabble was doing at the end of 2004. I bet it wound down by Novemberish and started to come right in January.) It certainly did something momentous during that run. Prove me wrong. ******* "If I listened to the opinions of generals or military officers in the field, we'd never have had the success we've had in running this war. So, I'm not about to start listening now." Donald H. Rumsfeld. (According to the Wikipedia he served in the U.S. Navy from 1954 to 1957 as an aviator and flight instructor. Rumsfeld is an Eagle Scout and recipient of the Distinguished Eagle Scout Award from the Boy Scouts of America. After that his career appears to have nose dived sharply.) |
Weatherlawyer's book of spells for the Atlantic hurricane season in 2006.
Weatherlawyer wrote: I got the times of the phases from Fred Espinak: http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html#y2004 So let's have a look at the forecast for the coming hurricane season. Bear in mind this is for the weather around the UK from which the lesser regions can be interpreted (as is the method used for tides in ports.) 21 APR. 03 28 Misty weather at the start of this spell forecast what might have been an hurricane if the season had been advanced enough but there was a major earthquake series in Russia instead. Score one for the meat eaters. 27 APR. 19 44 = Unstable anticyclonic. 5 MAY 05 13 = Unstable anticyclonic. 13 MAY 06 51 = Cyclonic. 19 MAY 09 21 = Cyclonic with a hint of thunder. 25 MAY 05 26 = Very unstable anticyclonic. 23 JUNE 23 06 = Anticyclonic. 11 JUNE 18 03 = Dull and overcast, watch out for misty weather/drizzle. 18 JUNE 14 08 = Anticyclonic. 25 JUNE 16 05 = Cyclonic. 3 JULY 16 37 = Wasn't there one at this time in April? Watch out for a large magnitude quake following it. Something interesting at least. 11 JULY 03 02 = Thundery. 17 JULY 19 13 = Cyclonic. 25 JULY 04 31 = Cyclonic. 2 AUG. 08 46 = Unstable cyclonic with a dash of thunder. 9 AUG. 10 54 = Anticyclonic. 16 AUG. 01 51 = Anticyclonic. 23 AUG. 19 10 = Cyclonic. 31 AUG. 22 57 = Anticyclonic. 7 SEPT. 18 42 = Unstable cyclonic. 14 SEPT. 11 15 = Unstable anticyclonic. 22 SEPT. 11 45 = Awkward bugger. Unstable unstable??? 30 SEPT. 11 04 = Anticyclonic. The classic. 7 OCT. 03 13 = Unstable cyclonic/thundery. 14 OCT. 00 26 = Awkward cyclonic, misty one. 22 OCT. 05 14 = Cyclonic. 29 OCT. 21 25 = Oh I hate these. 5 NOV. 12 58 = Cyclonic classic. 12 NOV. 17 45 = Unstable misty drizzle??? 20 NOV. 22 18 = Very unstable, unstable thingumy. 28 NOV. 06 29 = And again. 5 DEC. 00 25 = And again. 12 DEC. 14 32 = This one will be impossible to get right for man and beast 20 DEC. 14 01 = Anticyclonic. 27 DEC. 14 48 = Thundery. Odd run these. I said at the start of this year it would be a bad one for earthquakes. There are a lot of consecutive similar spells in here. As it happens the Magnitude scales for quakes and the Beaufort scale for winds are somewhat interchangeable. As far as I am concerned they are caused by the same thing. So whichever we get, the consecutive runs breaking step will give the largest ones. Or you can call me a climatologist. |
Weatherlawyer's book of spells for the Atlantic hurricane season in 2006.
Weatherlawyer wrote: I said at the start of this year it would be a bad one for earthquakes. There are a lot of consecutive similar spells in here. As it happens the Magnitude scales for quakes and the Beaufort scale for winds are somewhat interchangeable. As far as I am concerned they are caused by the same thing. So whichever we get, the consecutive runs breaking step will give the largest ones. As it happens, some weather stations in Britain recorded their highest temperatures for the 21st. Early days yet for jumping to conclusions. But why should that stop me? |
Weatherlawyer's book of spells for the Atlantic hurricane season in 2006.
Weatherlawyer wrote: 21 APR. 03 28 Misty weather at the start of this spell forecast what might have been an hurricane if the season had been advanced enough but there was a major earthquake series in Russia instead. Score one for the meat eaters. 27 APR. 19 44 = Unstable anticyclonic. 5 MAY 05 13 = Unstable anticyclonic. I thought I'd seen two anticyclones here. Score two but not as it is turning out. I mislaid the first one and the second woke me up. There is something large and ominous brewing. (Or not as the case may be.) |
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