Global Temperature Trends: 2007 Summation

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental
data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a
remarkable 0.2°C above the prior record with the help of the "El Niño
of the century". The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it
occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the
equatorial Pacific Ocean is in the cool phase of its natural El Niño-
La Niña cycle.

Figure 1 (Please see:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/20...2007annual.gif )

shows 2007 temperature anomalies relative to the 1951-1980 base period
mean. The global mean temperature anomaly, 0.57°C (about 1°F) warmer
than the 1951-1980 mean, continues the strong warming trend of the
past thirty years that has been confidently attributed to the effect
of increasing human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) (Hansen et al. 2007).
The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since
1998, and the 14 warmest years in the record have all occurred since
1990.

Arctic Warmth

The map reveals that the greatest warming has been in the Arctic and
neighboring high latitude regions. Polar amplification is an expected
characteristic of global warming, as the loss of ice and snow
engenders a positive feedback via increased absorption of sunlight.
The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observed
record low Arctic sea ice cover in September 2007.

[ . . . ]

Summary

The Southern Oscillation and the solar cycle have significant effects
on year-to-year global temperature change. Because both of these
natural effects were in their cool phases in 2007, the unusual warmth
of 2007 is all the more notable. It is apparent that there is no letup
in the steep global warming trend of the past 30 years (see 5-year
mean curve in Figure 1a).

"Global warming stopped in 1998," has become a recent mantra of those
who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The
continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature
exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature
jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because
the "El Niño of the century" coincided with the calendar year, but
there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend.

Global Predictions

The quasi-regularity of some natural climate forcing mechanisms,
combined with knowledge of human-made forcings, allows projection of
near-term global temperature trends with reasonably high confidence.
Prediction for a specific year is a bit hazardous, as evidenced by an
incorrect prediction of record global warmth made by the British
climate analysis group for 2007. Such speculations are useful, as they
draw attention to the mechanisms, and allow testing of understanding.
Presumably part of the basis for their prediction was an assumption of
a continued warming contribution from the 2006 El Niño. However,
evidence of El Niño warmth disappeared very early in 2007.

Solar irradiance will still be on or near its flat-bottomed minimum in
2008. Temperature tendency associated with the solar cycle, because of
the Earth's thermal inertia, has its minimum delayed by almost a
quarter cycle, i.e., about two years. Thus solar change should not
contribute significantly to temperature change in 2008.

La Niña cooling in the second half of 2007 (Figure 2) is about as
intense as the regional cooling associated with any La Niña of the
past half century, as shown by comparison to Plate 9 in Hansen et al.
(Hansen et al. 1999) and updates to Plate 9 on the GISS web site.
Effect of the current La Niña on global surface temperature is likely
to continue for at least the first several months of 2008. Based on
sequences of Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns in Plate 9, a
next El Niño in 2009 or 2010 is perhaps the most likely timing. But
whatever year it occurs, it is a pretty safe bet that the next El Niño
will help carry global temperature to a significantly higher level.

Competing with the short-term solar and La Niña cooling effects is the
long-term global warming effect of human-made GHGs. The latter
includes the trend toward less Arctic sea ice that markedly increases
high latitude Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Although sea ice cover
fluctuates from year to year, the large recent loss of thick multi-
year ice implies that this warming effect at high latitudes should
persist.

Based on these considerations, it is unlikely that 2008 will be a year
with truly exceptional global mean temperature. These considerations
also suggest that, barring the unlikely event of a large volcanic
eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005
can be expected within the next 2-3 years.

[ . . . ]

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental
data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a

The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups. Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing
the Internet, and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant. In much the same way as it was once
used in refrigeration.

On 14/02/08 17:26, in article
,
" wrote:


The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.


So? Where is it published?

I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant.

Interesting, explain please?

It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose
at 1 atmospheric pressure.

In the atmosphere it is the key green house gas, like in Venus!

The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.

So? Where is it published?

On the Internet.

http://people.dsv.su.se/~jpalme/e-ma...enet-news.html



I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant.

Interesting, explain please?

Pay me first.



It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose
at 1 atmospheric pressure.

And exactly where in nature will you find carbon dioxide in that
state?

http://scifun.chem.wisc.edu/chemweek...se_diagram.gif



In the atmosphere it is the key green house gas, like in Venus!

Earth is spherical (round) like Venus, and that's about all it's like.

wrote in message
...

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental
data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a

The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.

Bull****.

Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing
the Internet, and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant.

Bull****.

In much the same way as it was once
used in refrigeration.

Bull****.

wrote in message
...
The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.

So? Where is it published?

On the Internet.

http://people.dsv.su.se/~jpalme/e-ma...enet-news.html

In other words, by k00ks.




I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant.

Interesting, explain please?

Pay me first.

To lie? Good luck with that, chief.




It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose
at 1 atmospheric pressure.

And exactly where in nature will you find carbon dioxide in that
state?

Precisely. And that's how it's used as a coolant. Which makes your above
statement bull****.


http://scifun.chem.wisc.edu/chemweek...se_diagram.gif



In the atmosphere it is the key green house gas, like in Venus!

Earth is spherical (round) like Venus, and that's about all it's like.

translation: ga ga goo goo

Your strategy is to make a lot of noise,
as many outrageous statements as you can.


On Feb 14, 8:26*am, wrote:
The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental
data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a

The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.

Ha! Ha! Dream on.
GISS data are solid. What's more, they have high
correlations with other measures of global
mean surface temperature.


Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing
the Internet,

How much are you paid for your hobby?

and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant. *In much the same way as it was once
used in refrigeration.

REALLY NOW!
Where then is all the frozen CO2 on our planet?

On Feb 14, 8:23 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
Your strategy is to make a lot of noise,
as many outrageous statements as you can.

On Feb 14, 8:26 am, wrote:

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental
data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a

The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.

Ha! Ha! Dream on.
GISS data are solid. What's more, they have high
correlations with other measures of global
mean surface temperature.

Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing
the Internet,

How much are you paid for your hobby?

and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant. In much the same way as it was once
used in refrigeration.

REALLY NOW!
Where then is all the frozen CO2 on our planet?
Why do you not answer my question ?
Are the experiments detailed at
http://www.chemsoc.org/networks/lear...green/home.htm
http://www.nagt.org/files/nagt/jge/a..._v49n3p274.pdf
http://www.espere.net/Unitedkingdom/...greenhouse.htm
Pseudo Science.

"chemist" wrote in message
...
On Feb 14, 8:23 pm, Roger Coppock wrote:
Your strategy is to make a lot of noise,
as many outrageous statements as you can.

On Feb 14, 8:26 am, wrote:

The year 2007 tied for second warmest in the period of instrumental
data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS) analysis. 2007 tied 1998, which had leapt a

The use of that data has been thoroughly debunked on these
newsgroups.

Ha! Ha! Dream on.
GISS data are solid. What's more, they have high
correlations with other measures of global
mean surface temperature.

Roger I do this, discuss AGW, as a hobby while surfing
the Internet,

How much are you paid for your hobby?

and I can state with great certainty that carbon dioxide
acts, globally, as a coolant. In much the same way as it was once
used in refrigeration.

REALLY NOW!
Where then is all the frozen CO2 on our planet?
Why do you not answer my question ?
Are the experiments detailed at
http://www.chemsoc.org/networks/lear...green/home.htm
http://www.nagt.org/files/nagt/jge/a..._v49n3p274.pdf
http://www.espere.net/Unitedkingdom/...greenhouse.htm
Pseudo Science.

"Denialism is the employment of rhetorical tactics to give the appearance
of argument or legitimate debate, when in actuality there is none. These
false arguments are used when one has few or no facts to support one's
viewpoint against a scientific consensus or against overwhelming evidence to
the contrary. They are effective in distracting from actual useful debate
using emotionally appealing, but ultimately empty and illogical
assertions..."

http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about.php

It is a coolant if you have it in liquid form and let it loose
at 1 atmospheric pressure.

And exactly where in nature will you find carbon dioxide in that
state?

Precisely. And that's how it's used as a coolant.

Precisely