Counting the Cost of Australia's Heat Wave: the grape crop
 

On Feb 6, 11:17 am, "obozn" wrote:
"Fran" wrote in message

snip

So what Fran. Australia has always had droughts and heatwaves. Is a
damn hot dry country. Look at the temperature data over the last 100
years and you will see that todays temepratures are not exceptional

Are we to get more of them and have them for longer and are they to be
more intense?
It seems so. And that will cost us.
************************************************** ************

It seems not, just history repeating!
SE Australia was overdue for a heatwave after many mild summers.


And so you cite below data covering a period after climate change had
begun ...

You are simply proving the case for AGW.


It's DÉJÀ VU On The Murray-Darling Basin Not Climate Change

River has seen worse drought in 1000 years



Asa Wahlquist

November 11, 2006

QUOTE: Murray-Darling Basin Commission water resources manager Andrew Close
said if the Murray still had its natural flow, it would have probably
stopped flowing this year, as it did in 1914, 1915 and 1923, while the
Darling River dries up more frequently


i.e During a period when temperature rises had begun ...

This shows that AGW is a useful theory

QUOTE: Droughts earlier this century regularly stopped the Murray River
flowing, with current flows only sustained by modern management and a
network of water storages.

QUOTE: Between 1885 and 1960, the Darling River stopped flowing at Menindee
48 times. In 1902-03, during the Federation drought, it stopped flowing for
364 days.

QUOTE: Water Co-operative Research Centre chief executive Gary Jones said
drought was part of the natural cycle of the river.

THE Murray-Darling basin is in the midst of a long-term drought similar to
that experienced at Federation - not the worst in 1000 years.


Which is post the beginning of the steep rises in CO2 concentration
and the beginnings of a warmer climate

River and climate experts disagree with the one-in-1000-years call by South
Australian Premier Mike Rann this week.

Murray-Darling Basin Commission general manager David Dreverman told the
water summit hosted by John Howard on Tuesday that the inflow into the
Murray last month was so low as to be classed as a one-in-1000-year event..



So this source is now two years out of date ... Feb 2007 ...

National Climate Centre meteorologist Blair Trewin said the current drought
was "in a similar ball park to the Federation drought" of 1895-1903.


So post the beginning of anthropogenic climate change


He said 2006, as an individual drought year, was the second-lowest year for
rainfall in the basin.

"One of the things that intrigues me is that by and large 1914 was a worse
year for rainfall than 2006, but the inflows are lower this year," Dr Trewin
said.

The low inflows could be due to more farm dams, increased use of
groundwater, tree plantations and even regeneration after bushfire.


Yes, these might contribute and are a variable ... but AGW is clearly
a factor ...

Water Co-operative Research Centre chief executive Gary Jones said drought
was part of the natural cycle of the river.

"But this is a pretty big drought and we do have to expect there will be
some die-offs," Professor Jones said.


So Professor Jones is actually making the case that the drought at the
time was unusually severe ...

What a shame you don't read your own sources!

snip

Between 1885 and 1960, the Darling River stopped flowing at Menindee 48
times. In 1902-03, during the Federation drought, it stopped flowing for 364
days.


Post AGW ...

snip

Professor Cullen said he preferred to call it a drying climate, rather than
a drought. "As soon as you talk drought, they say it is going to break, and
I think Australia has got to get used to using less water."


Which is one of the things I'm claiming

Fran