On Feb 10, 3:14 pm, "boozn" wrote:
"Fran" wrote in message

...
On Feb 10, 12:27 pm, Dave wrote: Fran wrote:

Actually no, you can't, because my claim about the weather is non-
specific. I claim that this weather event is an example of what is
predicted by the general climate pattern, without specifically
claiming the extent to which this one in particular reflects it. It
might even be (though of course I don't claim it) that some indirect
consequence of AGW also explains the anomalous British weather,
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ROTFLMAO
Yeah right global warming causes everything, even global cooling!!

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I'm not going to do the homework for you. This is the pattern. Look at
places that have hot summers and check out their relevant patterns of
daily maxima and minima. Compare with 20 or 30 or 40 years earlier.
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ROTFLMAO
About the same as then, komrade!!!

Now That Was A Heatwave!

In a story on the Adelaide heatwave (ST, 16/3), the Climate Institute's
Edwin Jackson says it's a prediction of more such weather to come.

If that's so, the similar heatwave in 1931 has taken a long time to arrive.
Has Mr Jackson lived in Adelaide for a few summers? I expect not.

I lived there for 20 years, and experienced the hottest decade of the 20th
century: 1931, 1934, 1938 and 1939 were the four hottest years of that
century.


For Adelaide ... and during a period when the globe as a whole was
heating. What would you have said if we'd said, in 1939, there is
global warming as four of the last ten years have been the hottest
years in Adelaide since 1839? Wouldn't you have wanted some data from
the rest of the world?

In 1931, we had eight days over 38C, from Christmas Day to New Year's Day.
The maximum temperature was 44.5C.

So a lot less than the 9 days over 40C including three in excess of
43.

Moreover, until 1979 Adelaide temperature readings were taken at West
Terrace. If they had been taken now where they were then, for all we
know the temperatures might have been higher. As you might know, the
temperature at the Sydney Observatory is usually a lot cooler than at
Liverpool.

A better measure might have involved surveying the temperature across
all significant population centres -- Murray Bridge went to 47.6C but
of course the records don't go back as far acorss the entire region.

So nine such days are due to climate change, but eight of the same were not?


If you're going to move the goalposts back to 38C then you have to
count all the days in Adelaide either side of the 40C mark that were
38C. It's also worth

IIRC there were at least a couple either side, which would make it
closer to 12 or 13 days in sequence.

Adelaide also experiences very hot, dry northerly winds from the desert,
often accompanied by dust. We became accustomed to hot summers.



One should note also that all temperature records from Adelaide are
post the beginning of climate change (1887), so when people say "we
have long hot summers in Adelaide" a part of that perception was
formed long before people knew of climate change, and thus simply saw
this as the natural weather. There simply are no systematic and
reliable records for the years up until 1850. Doubtless they also had
hot summers but how hot? We simply don't know.

What we can say is that throughout the 20th century, it got hotter in
the world and also hotter in Adelaide. Most of the world's 15 hottest
years in the last 100 have occurred since 1990, and now in Adelaide
and Melbourne they've had their hottest summer on record and despite
impressive fire prevention measures, well drilled and well staffed
firecrews, and equipment that past firefighters could but have dreamed
of, Victoria has suffered the worst bushfire in all its recorded
history.

Coincidence? Utterly improbable.

The sad thing is that having determined to put your own head in the
sand, it irks you that so few others want to join you.

Fran