On Thu, 23 Jul 2009 13:46:40 -0700, chemist wrote:

On Jul 23, 5:11Â*am, "boonz" wrote:
Influence Of The Southern Oscillation On Tropospheric Temperature

23 Jul 2009

Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

J. D. McLean

Applied Science Consultants, Croydon, Victoria, Australia

C. R. de Freitas

School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of
Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

R. M. Carter

Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville,
Queensland, Australia

Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global
tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the
1958?2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave
sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980-2008 and from radiosondes
(RATPAC) for 1958-2008.

After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature
perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use
derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close
relationship between SOI and GTTA.

Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the
29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer
50-year RATPAC record.

Because El Niño?Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a
particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI
with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N.

The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in
tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics.

Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a
consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a
maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial
volcanism causes ad hoc cooling.

That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years
fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5-7 months earlier
shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most
of the temperature variation.

Received 16 December 2008; accepted 14 May 2009; published 23 July
2009.

Citation: McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009),
Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, J.
Geophys. Res., 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/200...JD011637.shtml

Warmest Regards


So what drives the SOI?

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conservatives."- John Stuart Mill

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