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Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/12/2011 07:22 PM, Falcon wrote:
In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this examplehttp://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Today's not as sunny as it was two days ago. Does that mean that the sun has stopped rising? |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Tue, 12 Apr 2011 15:47:53 +0100, Falcon
wrote: In article , Tom P wrote... On 04/12/2011 01:39 AM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...nthly_MSU_AMSU _Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The trend is very much dependent on the latitude. If you look at the figures for the various latitude bands, the positive trend is most dramatic for 60/82, and nearly as strong for -20/20, whereas the trend for -70/70 is almost zero - which seems to indicate that temperate latitudes are not warming?? It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The That isn't how science is done, nutter. Scientists don't "want to show" anything _a_priori_: they only want to show what the facts are after the evidence is in. They don't act like you alarmist nutters, starting out with a conclusiuon. -- http://desertphile.org Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water "Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Tue, 12 Apr 2011 08:13:09 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote: On Apr 12, 3:47*pm, Falcon wrote: In article , Tom P wrote... On 04/12/2011 01:39 AM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m...tglhmam_5.4The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...nthly_MSU_AMSU _Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The trend is very much dependent on the latitude. If you look at the figures for the various latitude bands, the positive trend is most dramatic for 60/82, and nearly as strong for -20/20, whereas the trend for -70/70 is almost zero - which seems to indicate that temperate latitudes are not warming?? It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. Anyway, the title 'Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming' infers that warming is continuing to occur, regardless of latitude. The fact that RSS satellite measurements have detected a small but appreciable amount of cooling over the last decade (there's that pesky linear trend thing again) would indicate that the word 'continued warming' in the subject line is deliberated misleading. Of course, as a confirmed 'sceptic', Dawlish has probably already jumped in here to describe Roger's description as 'spinning' the latest RSS figures. Or maybe he hasn't ... Again. He talks through a third party post. Have you figured yet, spinner, that all killfiling does is allows someone to kick your arse that sticks up a mile from your head, that's buried in that denier's crack? Even, this time, to the extent of accusing someone else of "spinning" when that's all he ever does in this neswgroup and is how he earned his nickname. Confirmed idiots just never learn. laughing When someone replies to this, you'll see spinner. Hope the boot doesn't hurt too much, but it's all you deserve. *)) Note how he claimed scientists "want to show" a specific conclusion instead of showing the conclusions of evidence regardless of want? That explains him and his cult perfectly. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Tue, 12 Apr 2011 10:02:53 -0700 (PDT), Roger Coppock
wrote: On Apr 12, 7:47*am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. "What's happening lately" = weather, not climate change. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. That's why he carefully picked his dates. He's trying to deceive people. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 00:25:23 -0700 (PDT), matt_sykes
wrote: On Apr 13, 12:49*am, Desertphile wrote: On Tue, 12 Apr 2011 00:45:48 -0700 (PDT), matt_sykes wrote: On Apr 12, 1:39*am, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg Roger, its not 'continued warming'. Why does =ALL= of the evidence say otherwise? Warming stopped. Why does =ALL= of the evidence say otherwise? Sticking a red line on a scatter plot does not mean its still warming. Nutter. Its clear fro the graph that its currently as warm as 1980. *How is that continued? Nutter. It is NOT warming! Why does =ALL= of the evidence say Earth is still warming? It DID warm, then it stayed AS warm for 13 years. No. I must also note yet again that if global warming were to just suddenly stop, humanity would be royally ****ed. There is no RATE OF CHANGE currently, thus it is not WARMING. Huh? What the ****? If the rate of warming stays the same, Earth is still warming! Sheeeish. You really need to work on your definitions of terms. I refuse to define words to mean what I wish them to: it isn't my job. Constant velocity is NOT aceleration. Constant temperature is NOT warming! Nutter. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 12, 10:22*am, Falcon wrote:
In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show.. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1
@z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22*am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. -- Falcon: fide, sed cui vide. (L) |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! Here, I've pointed it out so that you can hopefully see the light. Not holding my breath though... http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg Lurkers -- decide for yourself. Does the data really show "continued warming", or is Roger just another GW apologist/propagandist? |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 13, 2:35*pm, Falcon wrote:
In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22*am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
In article de2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93
@w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35*pm, Falcon wrote: In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22*am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. -- Falcon: fide, sed cui vide. (L) |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 11:02:29 -0700 (PDT), JohnM
wrote: On Apr 12, 10:22*am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. But he knows that fact already; he just does not give a ****. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. With the March data now published, the statistical significance is now.... (Excel Spreadsheet)... 97.63% confidence that unprecedented global warming has happened. That is a drop from 97.71% three months ago. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 22:35:38 +0100, Falcon
wrote: In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22*am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. And as you know, "the latest data" is not an indicator of climate change. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter Franks
wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. Here, I've pointed it out so that you can hopefully see the light. Not holding my breath though... http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg Lurkers -- decide for yourself. Does the data really show "continued warming", or is Roger just another GW apologist/propagandist? |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
so, it wasn't cut-off at 2003?
note that this is when the voluntary cap&trade came-in, on the heels (or vise-versa) of the 2nd Gulf War, continuosly proseltyzed as being "to control the oil," although it did cut-off about a tenth of our supply, at that time, I have read. hey, if Californians are not allowed to drill for oil off of our own coastline, how can we control the oil in a place where it's dark when it's light, here? |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/14/2011 02:39 AM, Falcon wrote:
In articlede2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93 @w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, wrote: In article95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote: In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. For student philosophers looking for good examples of fallacies, alt.global-warming is a great place to start. What you are saying is that Roger is indulging in the so-called post hoc fallacy by implication -the Satellite MSU Data are so-and-so, therefore warming continues. In a formal sense, this is correct - the observation that the sun rose this morning like every day as long as anyone can remember leads most people to the fallacious conclusion that the sun will rise tomorrow. However, where the fallacial arguments really take off is when we see people applying the fallacy of false dichotomy - because Roger's statement is not sound in the strict logical sense, it must be false - therefore it's cooling! |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/13/2011 09:23 AM, matt_sykes wrote:
On Apr 12, 6:25 pm, Tom wrote: On 04/12/2011 05:44 PM, matt_sykes wrote: On Apr 12, 3:41 pm, Tom wrote: On 04/12/2011 09:45 AM, matt_sykes wrote: On Apr 12, 1:39 am, Roger wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:http://en..wikipedia.org/wiki/Satell...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.http://vortex.nsstc.uah..edu/public/.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.http://www..remss.com/data/msu/month...onthly_MSU_AMS... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg Roger, its not 'continued warming'. Warming stopped. Sticking a red line on a scatter plot does not mean its still warming. Its clear fro the graph that its currently as warm as 1980. How is that continued? If you pick and choose the numbers, you can get anything you like. Obviously you prefer your version.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I dont prefer anything (actually, a bit warmer might be quite pleasant) . I just want the truth. Today it's colder here than it was yesterday. Does that prove anything?- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I just want the truth. Looking at your other posts, I have my doubts. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/14/2011 02:40 AM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 11:02:29 -0700 (PDT), JohnM wrote: On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote: In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this examplehttp://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. But he knows that fact already; he just does not give a ****. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. With the March data now published, the statistical significance is now.... (Excel Spreadsheet)... 97.63% confidence that unprecedented global warming has happened. That is a drop from 97.71% three months ago. At this rate, in 300 years the confidence will dropped almost to zero!! ;=)) |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
In article , Tom P wrote...
On 04/14/2011 02:39 AM, Falcon wrote: In articlede2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93 @w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, wrote: In article95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote: In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. For student philosophers looking for good examples of fallacies, alt.global-warming is a great place to start. What you are saying is that Roger is indulging in the so-called post hoc fallacy by implication -the Satellite MSU Data are so-and-so, therefore warming continues. In a formal sense, this is correct - the observation that the sun rose this morning like every day as long as anyone can remember leads most people to the fallacious conclusion that the sun will rise tomorrow. However, where the fallacial arguments really take off is when we see people applying the fallacy of false dichotomy - because Roger's statement is not sound in the strict logical sense, it must be false - therefore it's cooling! Who said it was cooling, Tom? The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. The latest MSU data cannot be said to show "continued warming". -- Falcon: fide, sed cui vide. (L) |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 13, 5:39*pm, Falcon wrote:
In article de2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93 @w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, Falcon wrote: In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22 am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote.... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. As I understand Roger's post, he is saying data shows warming is continuing from 30 years ago to the present. Even at 20 years it is possible make an equivalent statement. On any shorter time frame, no statement can be made. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. Indeed he missed some vital qualifying words from his title. That should have been rectified, but he chose not to. You are similar in that regard when you omit important qualifiers to analyses. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 15, 5:33*am, JohnM wrote:
On Apr 13, 5:39*pm, Falcon wrote: In article de2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93 @w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, Falcon wrote: In article 95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22 am, Falcon wrote: In article d47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote.... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, Falcon wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. As I understand Roger's post, he is saying data shows warming is continuing from 30 years ago to the present. Even at 20 years it is possible make an equivalent statement. On any shorter time frame, no statement can be made. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. Indeed he missed some vital qualifying words from his title. That should have been rectified, but he chose not to. You are similar in that regard when you omit important qualifiers to analyses.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - ............and there's the spin. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 14, 11:07*pm, Tom P wrote:
On 04/13/2011 09:23 AM, matt_sykes wrote: On Apr 12, 6:25 pm, Tom *wrote: On 04/12/2011 05:44 PM, matt_sykes wrote: On Apr 12, 3:41 pm, Tom * *wrote: On 04/12/2011 09:45 AM, matt_sykes wrote: On Apr 12, 1:39 am, Roger * * *wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:http://en..wikipedia.org/wiki/Satell...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.http://vortex.nsstc.uah..edu/public/.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.http://www..remss.com/data/msu/month...onthly_MSU_AMS... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg Roger, its not 'continued warming'. *Warming stopped. *Sticking a red line on a scatter plot does not mean its still warming. Its clear fro the graph that its currently as warm as 1980. *How is that continued? If you pick and choose the numbers, you can get anything you like. Obviously you prefer your version.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I dont prefer anything (actually, a bit warmer might be quite pleasant) . *I just want the truth. Today it's colder here than it was yesterday. Does that prove anything?- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I just want the truth. Looking at your other posts, I have my doubts.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Well dont doubt, believe it since it is the truth. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 15, 10:20*am, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS.... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer. The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas have not been all negative, as they afre at present. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. That's your linear model. The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently false. Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 15, 8:42*am, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. That's your linear model. The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued warming. *It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently false. Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post. ø What do you expect from the Jackass? —*— ø Roger the Dodger has lost it. No sense No brains No nothing at all! |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 4/15/2011 6:30 AM, wrote:
On Apr 15, 8:42 am, Peter wrote: On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. That's your linear model. The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently false. Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post. ø What do you expect from the Jackass? — — ø Roger the Dodger has lost it. No sense No brains No nothing at all! NOTHING! |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/15/2011 02:03 PM, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 15, 10:20 am, Tom wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS.... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer. The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas have not been all negative, as they afre at present. Here's another fit - http://tinypic.com/r/28qzyp3/7 The periodic function is a sawtooth with a base period of 3.47 years in 1979 which exponentially declines (factor 3 = -0,002) to 3.9 years at 2012. The correlation is 73%. The linear component remains 0.135/decade. The curve fit was implemented in OpenOffice using the Sun Microsystems Solver For Non-linear Programming 0.9. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/15/2011 02:42 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. That's your linear model. The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently false. Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post. The calculation shows how all 30 years of measured data can be modelled with an accuracy of 70% correlation as a sum of a cyclic component plus a linear component. Now tell us again about why you ignore 90% of the data. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Apr 15, 8:47*pm, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 02:03 PM, Dawlish wrote: On Apr 15, 10:20 am, Tom *wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS.... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer. The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas have not been all negative, as they afre at present. Here's another fit -http://tinypic.com/r/28qzyp3/7 The periodic function is a sawtooth with a base period of 3.47 years in 1979 which exponentially declines (factor 3 = -0,002) to 3.9 years at 2012. The correlation is 73%. The linear component remains 0.135/decade. The curve fit was implemented in OpenOffice using the Sun Microsystems Solver For Non-linear Programming 0.9.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - yes. it shows the same warming, if you take the troughs of the la Ninas. Same question to deniers. Why do La Ninas cause less cooling now than they did 30 years ago? I'll take answers on Monday. Off to the Big Smoke to watch the marathon. *)) Be good. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 4/15/2011 1:42 PM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 02:42 PM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. That's your linear model. The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently false. Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post. The calculation shows how all 30 years of measured data can be modelled with an accuracy of 70% correlation as a sum of a cyclic component plus a linear component. Now tell us again about why you ignore 90% of the data. I'm not. I'm challenging the assertion that "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" -- it doesn't. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 4/15/2011 12:47 PM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 02:03 PM, Dawlish wrote: On Apr 15, 10:20 am, Tom wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS.... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer. The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas have not been all negative, as they afre at present. Here's another fit - http://tinypic.com/r/28qzyp3/7 The periodic function is a sawtooth with a base period of 3.47 years in 1979 which exponentially declines (factor 3 = -0,002) to 3.9 years at 2012. The correlation is 73%. The linear component remains 0.135/decade. The curve fit was implemented in OpenOffice using the Sun Microsystems Solver For Non-linear Programming 0.9. Yes, that is fine, it is also a model. Roger's subject/post isn't about the model, it is about the data. It DOESN'T show continued warming. If you want to pal up w/ Roger and have him revise his subject to say "Modeled MSU Data Show Continued Warming", have at it, and you won't hear from me. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/15/2011 11:15 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 12:47 PM, Tom P wrote: On 04/15/2011 02:03 PM, Dawlish wrote: On Apr 15, 10:20 am, Tom wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS.... The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer. The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas have not been all negative, as they afre at present. Here's another fit - http://tinypic.com/r/28qzyp3/7 The periodic function is a sawtooth with a base period of 3.47 years in 1979 which exponentially declines (factor 3 = -0,002) to 3.9 years at 2012. The correlation is 73%. The linear component remains 0.135/decade. The curve fit was implemented in OpenOffice using the Sun Microsystems Solver For Non-linear Programming 0.9. Yes, that is fine, it is also a model. Roger's subject/post isn't about the model, it is about the data. It DOESN'T show continued warming. If you want to pal up w/ Roger and have him revise his subject to say "Modeled MSU Data Show Continued Warming", have at it, and you won't hear from me. Peter, it's very simple. Tell us why the temperatures have dropped in 2011. And while you're at it, tell us why they - rose in 1979, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, and 2009, and why they fell in 1981, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 1999, 2003, and 2007. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/15/2011 11:13 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 1:42 PM, Tom P wrote: On 04/15/2011 02:42 PM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote: On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote: On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter wrote: On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING, WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!! No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying for. http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg How does it show the earth is still warming? You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since 1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data. You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of 3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c. http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7 Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will return to a maximum in 2013-2014. That's your linear model. The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently false. Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post. The calculation shows how all 30 years of measured data can be modelled with an accuracy of 70% correlation as a sum of a cyclic component plus a linear component. Now tell us again about why you ignore 90% of the data. I'm not. I'm challenging the assertion that "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" -- it doesn't. So we agree that you just have a problem with the subject line wording, and is this a discussion about syllogisms? Post hoc fallacies? |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On 04/15/2011 12:15 AM, Falcon wrote:
In , Tom P wrote... On 04/14/2011 02:39 AM, Falcon wrote: In articlede2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93 @w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, wrote: In article95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote: In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. For student philosophers looking for good examples of fallacies, alt.global-warming is a great place to start. What you are saying is that Roger is indulging in the so-called post hoc fallacy by implication -the Satellite MSU Data are so-and-so, therefore warming continues. In a formal sense, this is correct - the observation that the sun rose this morning like every day as long as anyone can remember leads most people to the fallacious conclusion that the sun will rise tomorrow. However, where the fallacial arguments really take off is when we see people applying the fallacy of false dichotomy - because Roger's statement is not sound in the strict logical sense, it must be false - therefore it's cooling! Who said it was cooling, Tom? The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. The latest MSU data cannot be said to show "continued warming". See my other posts..... |
Latest Satellite MSU Data do not prove abrupt cooling!
On 04/12/2011 01:39 AM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg Roger, I observe that after 3 days of exposure of this data to the skeptic community, the primary reaction from skeptical quarters has been a critical note that the data do not "show" continued warming. This of course does invite a rally call to the false dichotomy. As a consequence, I have taken the liberty of altering the subject line. Your obdt. srvt. T. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data do not prove abrupt cooling!
On Sat, 16 Apr 2011 00:10:50 +0200, Tom P wrote:
On 04/12/2011 01:39 AM, Roger Coppock wrote: The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the University of Alabama at Huntsville. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global data are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea. http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/ RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_an d_Ocean_v03_3.txt The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg Roger, I observe that after 3 days of exposure of this data to the skeptic community, the primary reaction from skeptical quarters has been a critical note that the data do not "show" continued warming. This of course does invite a rally call to the false dichotomy. As a consequence, I have taken the liberty of altering the subject line. Your obdt. srvt. Oops, I think you screwed the pooch there, Tom, by using the word "abrupt". The data as shown does indeed show abrupt cooling several times, as well as abrupt warming. Roger insists on using only a 30yr low pass filter, and it's very hard to see any abrupt changes that way. I suspect if you apply a 5yr lowpass zerophase filter, you'll see an initial warming ramp until around 2000, then a plateau to the present. It seems hard to explain how CO2 could cause that, since it's been rising steadily since 1958. |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
are you saying that the years, not listed,
continued a brief trend, or ended one? rose in 1979, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, and 2009, and why they fell in 1981, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 1999, 2003, and 2007.- Hide quoted text - |
Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
On Thu, 14 Apr 2011 23:06:20 +0200, Tom P
wrote: On 04/14/2011 02:39 AM, Falcon wrote: In articlede2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93 @w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, wrote: In article95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1 @z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote... On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote: In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917- , Roger Coppock wrote... On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote: It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty graphs, but in this example http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening lately. You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing. So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing". Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms, is too great to allow meaningful inference. Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not warmed would be unthinkable. Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming". Which is precisely what YOU just said. What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can be made. You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of statistical inference. Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. That much should have been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject line is misleading. Yet more evidence "falcon" is a whacko. For student philosophers looking for good examples of fallacies, alt.global-warming is a great place to start. What you are saying is that Roger is indulging in the so-called post hoc fallacy by implication -the Satellite MSU Data are so-and-so, therefore warming continues. In a formal sense, this is correct - the observation that the sun rose this morning like every day as long as anyone can remember leads most people to the fallacious conclusion that the sun will rise tomorrow. The current global warming anomaly suddenly ceasing is a bit less likely as the sun failing to appear to rise in the morning. It would take a catastrophic disaster to stop global warming. However, where the fallacial arguments really take off is when we see people applying the fallacy of false dichotomy - because Roger's statement is not sound in the strict logical sense, it must be false - therefore it's cooling! Yes, even when he said the -LATEST- data (the past two years or so) cannot be said to show warming or cooling, he still says it's cooling. Amazing. -- http://desertphile.org Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water "Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz |
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