Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Thu, 14 Apr 2011 23:07:50 +0200, Tom P
wrote:

On 04/13/2011 09:23 AM, matt_sykes wrote:
On Apr 12, 6:25 pm, Tom wrote:
On 04/12/2011 05:44 PM, matt_sykes wrote:





On Apr 12, 3:41 pm, Tom wrote:
On 04/12/2011 09:45 AM, matt_sykes wrote:

On Apr 12, 1:39 am, Roger wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:http://en..wikipedia.org/wiki/Satell...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.http://vortex.nsstc.uah..edu/public/.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.http://www..remss.com/data/msu/month...onthly_MSU_AMS...
The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

Roger, its not 'continued warming'. Warming stopped. Sticking a red
line on a scatter plot does not mean its still warming.

Its clear fro the graph that its currently as warm as 1980. How is
that continued?

If you pick and choose the numbers, you can get anything you like.
Obviously you prefer your version.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I dont prefer anything (actually, a bit warmer might be quite
pleasant) . I just want the truth.

Today it's colder here than it was yesterday. Does that prove anything?- Hide quoted text -

I just want the truth.

Looking at your other posts, I have my doubts.

No, ge gets the truth all the time: he just rejects it--- he said
he wants the truth, not that he accepts it.


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Fri, 15 Apr 2011 02:16:35 -0700 (PDT), matt_sykes
wrote:

On Apr 14, 11:07*pm, Tom P wrote:
On 04/13/2011 09:23 AM, matt_sykes wrote:





On Apr 12, 6:25 pm, Tom *wrote:
On 04/12/2011 05:44 PM, matt_sykes wrote:

On Apr 12, 3:41 pm, Tom * *wrote:
On 04/12/2011 09:45 AM, matt_sykes wrote:

On Apr 12, 1:39 am, Roger * * *wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:http://en..wikipedia.org/wiki/Satell...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.http://vortex.nsstc.uah..edu/public/.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.http://www..remss.com/data/msu/month...onthly_MSU_AMS...
The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed hehttp://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

Roger, its not 'continued warming'. *Warming stopped. *Sticking a red
line on a scatter plot does not mean its still warming.

Its clear fro the graph that its currently as warm as 1980. *How is
that continued?

If you pick and choose the numbers, you can get anything you like.
Obviously you prefer your version.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I dont prefer anything (actually, a bit warmer might be quite
pleasant) . *I just want the truth.

Today it's colder here than it was yesterday. Does that prove anything?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I just want the truth.

Looking at your other posts, I have my doubts.- Hide quoted text -

Well dont doubt, believe it since it is the truth.

And yet you show absolutely no interest in the truth. Do you see
the problem here?


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Thu, 14 Apr 2011 23:10:31 +0200, Tom P
wrote:

On 04/14/2011 02:40 AM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 11:02:29 -0700 (PDT), JohnM
wrote:
On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote:
In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917-
, Roger Coppock wrote...
On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote:

It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw pretty
graphs, but in this examplehttp://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see
how useful a linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The
data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added another trend
line that's probably a little more representative of what's been happening
lately.

You're cherrypicking, again
R^2=0.0075 means nothing.

So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued warming", when
clearly, the latest records do not show that it's "continuing".

So, what "falcon" is saying is that since last night was cold, the
northern hemisphere has some how skipped summer and fall and gone
straight back to winter: THE LATEST DATA SHOWS IT.

Goopd bloody gods.

Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can
show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any
trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms,
is too great to allow meaningful inference.

But he knows that fact already; he just does not give a ****.

Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows
warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last thirty
years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has not
warmed would be unthinkable.

With the March data now published, the statistical significance is
now.... (Excel Spreadsheet)... 97.63% confidence that
unprecedented global warming has happened. That is a drop from
97.71% three months ago.

At this rate, in 300 years the confidence will dropped almost to zero!!
;=))

Proof we don't need to worry about it! Whew.


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Thu, 14 Apr 2011 23:15:59 +0100, Falcon
wrote:

In article , Tom P wrote...

On 04/14/2011 02:39 AM, Falcon wrote:
In articlede2ee785-5cd2-4908-a437-23253c22ae93
@w9g2000prg.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote...

On Apr 13, 2:35 pm, wrote:
In article95db4a50-35c6-45b8-8cc9-ce012ffea5e1

@z27g2000prz.googlegroups.com, JohnM wrote...

On Apr 12, 10:22 am, wrote:
In articled47a02bb-592a-4c02-8917-

, Roger Coppock wrote...

On Apr 12, 7:47 am, wrote:

It's also time-dependent. Roger's not the only one who can draw
pretty graphs, but in this example
http://i55.tinypic.com/iwrg35.png you can see how useful a
linear trend line is, depending on what you want to show. The
data is from Roger's thoughtfully provided source. I added
another trend line that's probably a little more representative
of what's been happening lately.

You're cherrypicking, again R^2=0.0075 means nothing.

So are you. You're using an entire record to show "continued
warming", when clearly, the latest records do not show that it's
"continuing".

Why are you continuing with this "canard" ? The latest records can
show neither warming, cooling or flat, because the scatter about any
trend line drawn, however robust that might be in statistical terms,
is too great to allow meaningful inference.

Data for the last twenty years allows meaningful inference. It shows
warming is highly likely to have taken place. Data for the last
thirty years shows warming to be so likely, that any proposal it has
not warmed would be unthinkable.

Because, as I have said several times, the entire satellite record
shows warming, but the latest data does NOT show "continued warming".

Which is precisely what YOU just said.

What I said was that examining the latest data on its own can neither
show, nor can it not show, anything whatsoever. In other words, it
definitely cannot,"NOT show "continued warming" " It cannot be subjected
to any meaningful analysis in any way shape or form, so no statements can
be made.

You made a statement based on it. You erred in doing so, so fess up
like a man, or alternatively admit you are baffled by the logic of
statistical inference.

Good grief, this is pedantic nonsense. If you're saying that Roger's
subject line is factually incorrect, i.e. that the latest MSU data cannot
be said to show continued warming, any more that they can show that there
has been no warming, or even cooling, then we agree. That much should have
been patently obvious. The sole reason for my response was that the subject
line is misleading.

For student philosophers looking for good examples of fallacies,
alt.global-warming is a great place to start.
What you are saying is that Roger is indulging in the so-called post
hoc fallacy by implication -the Satellite MSU Data are so-and-so,
therefore warming continues. In a formal sense, this is correct - the
observation that the sun rose this morning like every day as long as
anyone can remember leads most people to the fallacious conclusion that
the sun will rise tomorrow.
However, where the fallacial arguments really take off is when we see
people applying the fallacy of false dichotomy - because Roger's
statement is not sound in the strict logical sense, it must be false -
therefore it's cooling!

Who said it was cooling, Tom? The sole reason for my response was that the
subject line is misleading. The latest MSU data cannot be said to show
"continued warming".

The latest weather report cannot be said to show summer will be
warmer than winter.


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Fri, 15 Apr 2011 11:20:12 +0200, Tom P
wrote:

On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

Yes. Worse yet, "Peter Franks" appears to not understand how the
median was derived. Even when the current global temperature drops
below the median, it can (and does!) still show warming unless and
until the temperature drop goes below the assigned lebel of
confidence (usually 95%). That's the whole swatting point of
deriving a median on a graph: one can then graph the level of
confidence above and below it.


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Fri, 15 Apr 2011 05:03:11 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

On Apr 15, 10:20*am, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:





On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS...

The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13 c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text -

Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around
a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at
present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the
temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message
and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the
climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer.
The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas
have not been all negative, as they afre at present.

That's a great point; but are the El Ninos also getting warmer?


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On Fri, 15 Apr 2011 05:42:35 -0700, Peter Franks
wrote:

On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt


The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

That's your linear model.

The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued
warming.

You are being deliberately stupid, for reasons I cannot fathom.
The latest data -DOES- show global temperature still warming, even
when the temperature dips. If you don't understand why then you're
too stupid to breath without a coach.

It may warm again in the future

You mean it will continue to warm.

or it may not

No, global temperature will not not warm: excess atmospheric CO2
is still warming the planet.

but in the
meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is patently
false.

And yet that's exactly what the latest data shows.

Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post.

There's nothing about his post that requires defending.


--
http://desertphile.org
Desertphile's Desert Soliloquy. WARNING: view with plenty of water
"Why aren't resurrections from the dead noteworthy?" -- Jim Rutz

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On 4/15/2011 2:33 PM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 11:13 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 1:42 PM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 02:42 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 2:20 AM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...cean_v03_3.txt






The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING
COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a
cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13°c.
http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.

That's your linear model.

The data itself shows something different, and definitely NOT continued
warming. It may warm again, in the future, or it may not, but in the
meantime, "Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming" is
patently
false.

Notice how Roger can't even defend his own post.

The calculation shows how all 30 years of measured data can be modelled
with an accuracy of 70% correlation as a sum of a cyclic component plus
a linear component.
Now tell us again about why you ignore 90% of the data.

I'm not. I'm challenging the assertion that "Latest Satellite MSU Data
Show Continued Warming" -- it doesn't.

So we agree that you just have a problem with the subject...

....and conclusion

Latest Satellite MSU Data Show Continued Warming
 

On 4/15/2011 2:28 PM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 11:15 PM, Peter Franks wrote:
On 4/15/2011 12:47 PM, Tom P wrote:
On 04/15/2011 02:03 PM, Dawlish wrote:
On Apr 15, 10:20 am, Tom wrote:
On 04/14/2011 02:54 AM, Peter Franks wrote:





On 4/13/2011 5:43 PM, ShyDavid wrote:
On Wed, 13 Apr 2011 15:29:28 -0700, Peter
wrote:

On 4/11/2011 4:39 PM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations,
shows that the air near the surface is warming.
For background on the satellite temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records
from the University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4
The global data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also
shows a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthl...onthly_MSU_AMS....




The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg

The data do NOT show a continued warming. THEY SHOW INCREASING
COOLING,
WITH THE MOST RECENT DATA POINTS BEING BELOW NORMAL!!!

No. And since your graphs (below) show Earth is still warming, one
has got to wonder what the bloody hell you could possibly be lying
for.

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/UAH-MSU.jpg

http://members.cox.net/peter.franks/RSS-MSU.jpg

How does it show the earth is still warming?

You can get a reasonably accurate fit of the temperature anomaly since
1979 by fitting a linear plus sinusoidal function to the data.
You get a linear trend of 0.14/decade plus a sinusoidal with a
cycle of
3.73 years and half amplitude of about 0.13
c.http://tinypic.com/r/10e4iac/7

Right now we are on the downward swing of the sinusoidal but it will
return to a maximum in 2013-2014.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Yes, thanks John. What we are seeing there is mainly ENSO noise around
a warming signal. The troughs, with the most recent, as you say, at
present, generally represent the La Ninas. If you look at the
temperature trend, joining all the troughs, there is a clear message
and it's one which has allowed me to ask a difficult question of the
climate deniers as a result. La Ninas are effectively getting warmer.
The question is; "why", when other forcings, during previous La Ninas
have not been all negative, as they afre at present.

Here's another fit - http://tinypic.com/r/28qzyp3/7
The periodic function is a sawtooth with a base period of 3.47 years in
1979 which exponentially declines (factor 3 = -0,002) to 3.9 years at
2012.
The correlation is 73%. The linear component remains 0.135/decade.

The curve fit was implemented in OpenOffice using the Sun Microsystems
Solver For Non-linear Programming 0.9.

Yes, that is fine, it is also a model. Roger's subject/post isn't about
the model, it is about the data. It DOESN'T show continued warming.

If you want to pal up w/ Roger and have him revise his subject to say
"Modeled MSU Data Show Continued Warming", have at it, and you won't
hear from me.

Peter, it's very simple. Tell us why the temperatures have dropped in
2011. And while you're at it, tell us why they -
rose in 1979, 1983, 1986, 1990, 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, and 2009,
and why they fell in 1981, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 1999, 2003, and 2007.

Don't know, don't care; what I do know is that the latest MSU data does
not show continued warming.

Latest Satellite MSU Data do not prove abrupt cooling!
 

On 04/16/2011 01:37 AM, Bill Ward wrote:
On Sat, 16 Apr 2011 00:10:50 +0200, Tom P wrote:

On 04/12/2011 01:39 AM, Roger Coppock wrote:
The satellite record, in all its current interpretations, shows that
the air near the surface is warming. For background on the satellite
temperature proxy please see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...e_measurements

The URL below is one of the more conservative records from the
University of Alabama at Huntsville.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/m.../tltglhmam_5.4 The global
data are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/UAH-MSU.jpg

The Remote Sensing Systems Lower Troposphere (TLT) analysis also shows
a temperature rise above the surface of the land and sea.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/
RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_an d_Ocean_v03_3.txt
The data from 82.5N to 70S are graphed he
http://members.cox.net/rcoppock/RSS-MSU.jpg


Roger,
I observe that after 3 days of exposure of this data to the skeptic
community, the primary reaction from skeptical quarters has been a
critical note that the data do not "show" continued warming.
This of course does invite a rally call to the false dichotomy.

As a consequence, I have taken the liberty of altering the subject line.
Your obdt. srvt.

Oops, I think you screwed the pooch there, Tom, by using the word
"abrupt". The data as shown does indeed show abrupt cooling several
times, as well as abrupt warming. Roger insists on using only a 30yr low
pass filter, and it's very hard to see any abrupt changes that way.

I suspect if you apply a 5yr lowpass zerophase filter, you'll see an
initial warming ramp until around 2000, then a plateau to the present.

It seems hard to explain how CO2 could cause that, since it's been rising
steadily since 1958.



Certainly the cyclic variations with a period of 3-4 years are not
caused by CO2, and reflect phenomena such as La Nina. The key word is
"cyclic".