On Sun, 9 Oct 2005 19:24:01 +0100, Shaun Pudwell wrote:

Sheppey was cut off for weeks in 1987 and I believe Warden Bay had
no power for twelve days. Food had to be air lifted in. That's
what I'm concerned about.

No power can be a PITA particularly at the end of December when it
gets dark at 1600... Food shouldn't be a problem just stock up now.
Obviously not fresh stuff but dried pasta, tins (anything from fruit
to vegetables), dried milk, flour etc. A small gas camping stove (we
have a 2 ring plus grill jobbie) will mean you can have hot meals and
drinks. OK not Gordon Blue blue but you won't starve

A camping gas lantern is probably the best source of light, easily the
same as a 60W bulb and with runtimes on a single small cannister of
gas of 8 or more hrs can't be beaten. Batteries don't last long, most
"emergency" type things seem to work for about 3hrs and you don't get
much light. Without power you can't charge rechargables. Reminds me I
really ought to buy another and a couple more cylinders...

For heat we have a portable gas fire and an open fire plus lots of
jumpers, blankets and duvets. A bit of cold shouldn't be a problem to
any one moderately fit and not actually ill. The young will get cold
and quite quickly, same with the elderly, plenty of layers and at
night snuggle up together under blankets and duvets.

The nearest town with a shopping centre is Sheerness and that's over
nine miles away along minor B roads.

9 miles is less than half way to our nearest town shopping center. I
don't count Alston only 2 1/2 miles away as if we are cut off so is
the town so no deliveries there...

9 miles isn't far should be able to walk it, there and back, in a day
though if the weather is bad enough to close the roads (properly not
the heavy frost you posted earlier...) I wouldn't recommend such
action. Better to sit tight with your beans on toast. B-)

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

In article , John Hall writes:
In article ,
Shaun Pudwell writes:

....

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Saying that the winter is expected to be colder than those experienced
since 1995-6 (or indeed 1996-7) doesn't preclude the possibility that it
will prove to be colder than 1995-6 as well.


That must have been the viewpoint of the Sunday Newspaper my vulnerable
Mother-in-Law read (delivered in the south Midlands) which stated that the
Met Office has predicted a winter with temperatures averaging as low as
-10 C.



But no doubt if recent
winters had been as cold as those that we had become accustomed to
between say 1978 and 1987, the Met Office wouldn't have thought a
warning necessary. It's because people (and the utilities in particular)
may have been lulled into a false sense of security that a "heads up" is
prudent.


Why do the Met Office not issue bounds on their forecast? It would have
encapsulated the degrees of danger (pun intended) that they perceived the
country to be in. By saying "colder than those experienced since 1995-6"
I do think they mean they think it will *not* be as cold (on average) as
1995-6. But choosing the language that they did, they leave the issue
open to abuse.



Cheers,

keith



---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 90 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
London?...

The new bridge should be open for next summer. A bad winter will obviously
cause some delays to that. They have certainly been very lucky with the
weather so far this year.

Shaun Pudwell.


"Jonathan Stott" wrote in message
...
Shaun Pudwell wrote:
Sheppey was cut off for weeks in 1987 and I believe Warden Bay had no
power for twelve days. Food had to be air lifted in. That's what I'm
concerned about.

I guess that's one of the perils of living on an island. I'd say it kind
of makes things quite exciting - I especially liked the 1987 winter where
I was because we had to cook dinner over the gas fire in the lounge when
the power went off! Luckily it didn't go off for 12 days though.

The nearest town with a shopping centre is Sheerness and that's over nine
miles away along minor B roads. Then we have that awful lifting bridge
( The Kingsferry Bridge ). To add to the pain, there are now miles and
miles of road works associated with the new £100 million fixed span
bridge that is currently under construction.

Surely that's only a temporary problem to alleviate the existing problems
of the lift bridge? When does the new bridge open?

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

That's probably because like everyone else, they don't have a clue what it's
actually going to do.

Shaun Pudwell.

"Keith Dancey" wrote in message
...
In article , John Hall
writes:
In article ,
Shaun Pudwell writes:

...

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given
the
impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

snip
All in all then, it looks like being a fairly average 90's style winter
with
one month with a CET of 2.5. What's all the fuss about????

Saying that the winter is expected to be colder than those experienced
since 1995-6 (or indeed 1996-7) doesn't preclude the possibility that it
will prove to be colder than 1995-6 as well.


That must have been the viewpoint of the Sunday Newspaper my vulnerable
Mother-in-Law read (delivered in the south Midlands) which stated that the
Met Office has predicted a winter with temperatures averaging as low as
-10 C.



But no doubt if recent
winters had been as cold as those that we had become accustomed to
between say 1978 and 1987, the Met Office wouldn't have thought a
warning necessary. It's because people (and the utilities in particular)
may have been lulled into a false sense of security that a "heads up" is
prudent.


Why do the Met Office not issue bounds on their forecast? It would have
encapsulated the degrees of danger (pun intended) that they perceived the
country to be in. By saying "colder than those experienced since 1995-6"
I do think they mean they think it will *not* be as cold (on average) as
1995-6. But choosing the language that they did, they leave the issue
open to abuse.



Cheers,

keith



---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 90 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
London?...

I believe that one particular spot near Eastchurch, which is near the
highest point on the island is prone to becoming blocked by drifting snow.
Some figures put the drifts in 1987 at more than 20ft. I'll not be walking
through that!!

Shaun Pudwell.

"Dave Liquorice" wrote in message
ll.com...
On Sun, 9 Oct 2005 19:24:01 +0100, Shaun Pudwell wrote:

Sheppey was cut off for weeks in 1987 and I believe Warden Bay had
no power for twelve days. Food had to be air lifted in. That's
what I'm concerned about.

No power can be a PITA particularly at the end of December when it
gets dark at 1600... Food shouldn't be a problem just stock up now.
Obviously not fresh stuff but dried pasta, tins (anything from fruit
to vegetables), dried milk, flour etc. A small gas camping stove (we
have a 2 ring plus grill jobbie) will mean you can have hot meals and
drinks. OK not Gordon Blue blue but you won't starve

A camping gas lantern is probably the best source of light, easily the
same as a 60W bulb and with runtimes on a single small cannister of
gas of 8 or more hrs can't be beaten. Batteries don't last long, most
"emergency" type things seem to work for about 3hrs and you don't get
much light. Without power you can't charge rechargables. Reminds me I
really ought to buy another and a couple more cylinders...

For heat we have a portable gas fire and an open fire plus lots of
jumpers, blankets and duvets. A bit of cold shouldn't be a problem to
any one moderately fit and not actually ill. The young will get cold
and quite quickly, same with the elderly, plenty of layers and at
night snuggle up together under blankets and duvets.

The nearest town with a shopping centre is Sheerness and that's over
nine miles away along minor B roads.

9 miles is less than half way to our nearest town shopping center. I
don't count Alston only 2 1/2 miles away as if we are cut off so is
the town so no deliveries there...

9 miles isn't far should be able to walk it, there and back, in a day
though if the weather is bad enough to close the roads (properly not
the heavy frost you posted earlier...) I wouldn't recommend such
action. Better to sit tight with your beans on toast. B-)

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

In article , "Shaun Pudwell" writes:

That's probably because like everyone else, they don't have a clue what it's
actually going to do.


Sorry to keep harking on, but they must have some idea. As an example, they
(the Met Office) might have said the current ten-year winter/January average
was x, while the current 30-year winter/January average was y.

(That demonstrates something, immediately)

Then their forecast, based on whatever, might be 65% that this winter/January
will be upto (x - 3), 15% that it will be upto (x - 5), 10% worse than (x - 5)
and 10% (x) or better.

The ranges would depend upon the forecast figures, of course, and there may be
be more than four... and they could be tabulated for easy reading... But it
immediately encapsulates the problem and stops wild speculation in the media.

They could update the figures as winter progressed...


That they have *some* idea is demonstrated by their statement that they expect
the (chiefly) January period to be worse than the average *since* a given date.
Otherwise, why else mention the date at all?


Cheers (and I hope you survive the worst without too much fuss:-)


keith



---
Iraq: 6.5 thousand million pounds, 90 UK lives, and counting...
100,000+ civilian casualties, largely of coalition bombing...
London?...