Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

From noob to pro forecasters i have very rarely seen a forecaster say i got
it wrong, they always reply but i said this and i said that so i nearly got
it right or im reading it wrong.

Why is this? its not just on forums but on tv aswell
This amount of snow for some areas today wasnt
forecasted, but do we see a well we didnt see this happening so be careful.

All of them are SO hyped up when they get it right
pointing fingers saying i told you so. Two,metcheck
ukww,net weather all the bloody same yet how often
do i see * well i was totaly wrong * probably once
a year. Even the met office forecasters well we did
forecast this days in advance give ourselves a pat on
the back.

If you question this, its frowned apon thats generally why
i was banned in the early days, i wont let up ill drag
you by your hands along the floor till you scream I admit
i got it wrong. But they dont they hide behind their status.

Dont forget the go on then prove it where did we say this
and that, most of the time i can but again im reading it wrong. How the f*ck
can i be reading it wrong did you
say it was going to snow or NOT?!

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

You have to understand (and I'm sure you are fairly au fait with this)
- we are not dealing with an exact science. If I say it will be sunny
today what does that mean to people? Totally clear skies, little puffy
cumulus clouds, fair amount of cirrus etc. Most people cannot
understand the concept of showers - to them it's raining or not. When
it comes to showers, they are always difficult if not impossible to
predict for a particular location. I can say showers over SE England
and you know full well that some places will be dry all day and others
where there may be convergence could have almost non stop showers all
day. Am I wrong in my forecast? To the people who get wet they say it
was in the forecast and the ones who stay dry say - we were lucky to
miss the showers. So, be clear in your mind. Weather forecasting, on
the whole is very good for the big picture. When it comes to predicting
a shower in your location of say a square mile current computer models
are really not up to that kind of accuracy yet. I do agree that radio
and TV forecasters could do a lot better by at least giving a degree of
uncertainty in their forecasts if they really don't know. Please don't
think that it's just incompetence of forecasters - they really do try
their best to get it right and nobody has ever claimed that they are
perfect. Would you prefer a world where there are no forecasts and
every day you wake up having absolutely no idea what the weather will
do today. Be fair, on the whole the forecasts are pretty good and it is
very rare that the forecast is totally wrong.

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

On 28 Nov 2005 12:36:34 -0800, "Pete L"
wrote:

Be fair, on the whole the forecasts are pretty good and it is
very rare that the forecast is totally wrong.

Quite so- I listen to the met people on Radio Solent a good deal and
can say that there have been several occasions when things have not
happened as forecast - and there have been apologies on every occasion
Robin

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

"Robin Nicholson" wrote in message
...
On 28 Nov 2005 12:36:34 -0800, "Pete L"
wrote:

Be fair, on the whole the forecasts are pretty good and it is
very rare that the forecast is totally wrong.

Quite so- I listen to the met people on Radio Solent a good deal and
can say that there have been several occasions when things have not
happened as forecast - and there have been apologies on every occasion

To be fair the NW Tonight forecast admitted that there was a lot more
snow than they had ever forecast.
However I didn't see anything like this in the BBC national forecast.
What irritates me is that they just seem to blithely carry on with today's
forecast as if nothing had happened when today's weather is
completely different from what they said it would be yesterday!
Now I *know* that it's not an exact science and that formal apolgies
might not be the order of the day but somekind of simple acknolwlegement
that things didn't go to plan might be in order, surely?
Perhaps even shock, horror! tied in with a little 'education' (remember
that word) as to why it happened......

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

What irritates me is that they just seem to blithely carry on with today's
forecast as if nothing had happened when today's weather is
completely different from what they said it would be yesterday!
Now I *know* that it's not an exact science and that formal apolgies
might not be the order of the day but somekind of simple acknolwlegement
that things didn't go to plan might be in order, surely?
Perhaps even shock, horror! tied in with a little 'education' (remember
that word) as to why it happened......

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.



Thats basically what i was getting at

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

On Mon, 28 Nov 2005 21:11:29 +0000 (UTC), "Col"
wrote:

To be fair the NW Tonight forecast admitted that there was a lot more
snow than they had ever forecast.
However I didn't see anything like this in the BBC national forecast.

I did, and I only watched one forecast - on BBC News 24 - late this
afternoon. The BBC W/C presenter pointed out clearly that the snow
didn't follow the script... and everyone knew what that meant. Credit
where credit is due (for the admission).

-
Dave

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

Yes and later there was a " somewhat more snow than expected" but it was
probably worse than that. As Col pointed out it was such a good opportunity
to explain that the weather isn't totally predictable and a brief
explaination of what caused the snow might have been useful, because I'm
still not that sure.

Dave
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 28 Nov 2005 21:11:29 +0000 (UTC), "Col"
wrote:

To be fair the NW Tonight forecast admitted that there was a lot more
snow than they had ever forecast.
However I didn't see anything like this in the BBC national forecast.

I did, and I only watched one forecast - on BBC News 24 - late this
afternoon. The BBC W/C presenter pointed out clearly that the snow
didn't follow the script... and everyone knew what that meant. Credit
where credit is due (for the admission).

-
Dave

Why do so many forecasters never admit getting it wrong?
 

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 28 Nov 2005 21:11:29 +0000 (UTC), "Col"
wrote:

To be fair the NW Tonight forecast admitted that there was a lot more
snow than they had ever forecast.
However I didn't see anything like this in the BBC national forecast.

I did, and I only watched one forecast - on BBC News 24 - late this
afternoon. The BBC W/C presenter pointed out clearly that the snow
didn't follow the script... and everyone knew what that meant. Credit
where credit is due (for the admission).

Well I can only comment on the forecast that I saw, and that was the
BBC 6.25. However that is probaby one of the BBC's most important
of the day. If they acknowledged it elsewhere, then that's good.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.