Following a lot of hard work put into the European Winter by H H Lamb et
alia in the 20th century. The late November cold snap is normal. So is
the mid-December mildening. Then they move on to the late December cold
spell. After that the cold spells are shown to be dominant in Mid
January and Mid February.
Otherwise southwesterlies dominate. This leads me to suspect that the
coming winter will be normal or above, as I have published.
OK seasonal forecasting aided by numerical products has improved. But
you cant just wipe away a lot of serious hard work put in past century.
I've lost me duck!
Cheers
Paul

--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Following a lot of hard work put into the European Winter by H H Lamb et
alia in the 20th century. The late November cold snap is normal. So is
the mid-December mildening. Then they move on to the late December cold
spell. After that the cold spells are shown to be dominant in Mid
January and Mid February.
Otherwise southwesterlies dominate. This leads me to suspect that the
coming winter will be normal or above, as I have published.
OK seasonal forecasting aided by numerical products has improved. But
you cant just wipe away a lot of serious hard work put in past century.
I've lost me duck!
Cheers
Paul

No you can't, but the climate is changing Paul?

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
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"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Following a lot of hard work put into the European Winter by H H Lamb et
alia in the 20th century. The late November cold snap is normal. So is
the mid-December mildening. Then they move on to the late December cold
spell. After that the cold spells are shown to be dominant in Mid January
and Mid February.
Otherwise southwesterlies dominate. This leads me to suspect that the
coming winter will be normal or above, as I have published.
OK seasonal forecasting aided by numerical products has improved. But you
cant just wipe away a lot of serious hard work put in past century.
I've lost me duck!

Late November cold snap, Paul?
Wasn't most of the second half of November on the cool side or am I
mistaken?

Victor

Paul Bartlett wrote:
Following a lot of hard work put into the European Winter by H H Lamb et
alia in the 20th century. The late November cold snap is normal. So is
the mid-December mildening. Then they move on to the late December cold
spell. After that the cold spells are shown to be dominant in Mid
January and Mid February.
Otherwise southwesterlies dominate. This leads me to suspect that the
coming winter will be normal or above, as I have published.
OK seasonal forecasting aided by numerical products has improved. But
you cant just wipe away a lot of serious hard work put in past century.
I've lost me duck!
Cheers
Paul

Most of the forecasts I've read do seem to be suggesting something
approaching the classic "normal" pre 1990s scenario. Something that
today's tabloids would class as "severe". Shall we start a running
tally of how many times we'll see the classic headline and sub deck
"Big Freeze Chaos...And there's more snow on the way..."

Paul Bartlett wrote:
Following a lot of hard work put into the European Winter by H H Lamb et
alia in the 20th century. The late November cold snap is normal. So is
the mid-December mildening. Then they move on to the late December cold
spell. After that the cold spells are shown to be dominant in Mid
January and Mid February.
Otherwise southwesterlies dominate. This leads me to suspect that the
coming winter will be normal or above, as I have published.
OK seasonal forecasting aided by numerical products has improved. But
you cant just wipe away a lot of serious hard work put in past century.
I've lost me duck!
Cheers
Paul


I tend to agree with you on this one Paul, the pendulum is going to
swing back and forth. Maybe like 1987 when some decent wintry spells
occurred.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

Damn it paul, predict another mild winter
so i can get further heavy snowfalls in jan
and feb like i have the last 3 years.

THANKS!

On Thu, 01 Dec 2005 21:53:51 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

I tend to agree with you on this one Paul, the pendulum is going to
swing back and forth. Maybe like 1987 when some decent wintry spells
occurred.

My bet too. But the 'decent wintry spells' might just be a bit
more..well..biting? (With appropriate media prompting that is!)
R

"Robin Nicholson" wrote in
message ...
On Thu, 01 Dec 2005 21:53:51 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

I tend to agree with you on this one Paul, the pendulum is going to
swing back and forth. Maybe like 1987 when some decent wintry spells
occurred.

My bet too. But the 'decent wintry spells' might just be a bit
more..well..biting? (With appropriate media prompting that is!)
R


Britain braces bravely for big brrrrr blow!!! :-)

Victor

On Thu, 1 Dec 2005 23:19:56 -0000, "Victor West"
wrote:


Britain braces bravely for big brrrrr blow!!! :-)

Our dear friends, the Frogs, will accidentally turn off the
'necessary?' electricity/gas supplies..and make fun of us,too?
R

nguk wrote:
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather


Damn it paul, predict another mild winter
so i can get further heavy snowfalls in jan
and feb like i have the last 3 years.

THANKS!


The winter is going to be "Bad with Many Dead!" there's about 2 ton of
salt at Stoke Mandeville Station, Chiltern must be right