I'm not a meteorologist at all, so perhaps theres a simple answer but
can someone explain where the south easts rain has gone the last few
years? What has stopped it getting here or have the weather systems
not formed in the first place? The reserviors not far from me are
getting worryingly low, is there any decent rain on the horizon so
to speak?

B2003

Stronger Azores High..... more high pressure to our South.
Thunderstorms used to be common here in the Summer. Very rare now.

---------------------------------------------------------
"Boltar" wrote in message
oups.com...
I'm not a meteorologist at all, so perhaps theres a simple answer but
can someone explain where the south easts rain has gone the last few
years? What has stopped it getting here or have the weather systems
not formed in the first place? The reserviors not far from me are
getting worryingly low, is there any decent rain on the horizon so
to speak?

B2003

danny (west kent) wrote:
Stronger Azores High..... more high pressure to our South.
Thunderstorms used to be common here in the Summer. Very rare now.

I was walking into Canterbury along the river and noted that there's so
little water flowing that you would be mistaken for thinking that it's
the middle of August. The mill race near Pound Lane is dry and there was
only a trickle of water over the weir. Ducks are again unable to swim
some parts of the river!

(BTW. only 28.4mm here so far this month and 460.0mm for the whole of 2005.)

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

Same just over the Estuary. Golf course is on clay but, like my garden, the
dryest I have ever seen it in Dec/Jan.

Dave

Boltar wrote:
I'm not a meteorologist at all, so perhaps theres a simple answer but
can someone explain where the south easts rain has gone the last few
years? What has stopped it getting here or have the weather systems
not formed in the first place? The reserviors not far from me are
getting worryingly low, is there any decent rain on the horizon so
to speak?

B2003


Northern edge of desertification as the Sahara spreads North in response
to GW?

--
Chris
http://www.ivy-house.net
Swaffham, Norfolk

I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably down to
natural variability and next year we could be inundated with rainfall,
overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier summers, and
this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Boltar" wrote in message
oups.com...
I'm not a meteorologist at all, so perhaps theres a simple answer but
can someone explain where the south easts rain has gone the last few
years? What has stopped it getting here or have the weather systems
not formed in the first place? The reserviors not far from me are
getting worryingly low, is there any decent rain on the horizon so
to speak?

B2003

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably down
to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with rainfall,
overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier summers, and
this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham

Graham

Going on my records since 1989, there seems to be relatively little change
in the annual rainfall totals, it just seems to be shifting in when it
actually falls throughout the year, i.e., drier spring & summers; wetter
autumn and winters.

I believe this fits in with earlier models showing the effects of a warming
climate on the UK. If the climate continues to warm then this shifting of
rainfall pattern is predicted to get more extreme.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably down
to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with rainfall,
overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier summers, and
this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham

Graham

Going on my records since 1989, there seems to be relatively little change
in the annual rainfall totals, it just seems to be shifting in when it
actually falls throughout the year, i.e., drier spring & summers; wetter
autumn and winters.

Yes, slightly drier spring & summer here as well. The rainfall here has
always been very seasonal, but is even more so now.

I believe this fits in with earlier models showing the effects of a
warming climate on the UK. If the climate continues to warm then this
shifting of rainfall pattern is predicted to get more extreme.

I agree. Also what I find interesting is the warming over the last couple of
decades here has been slightly greater in summer than winter. This counters
the argument that warmer winters are just down to the lack of blocking
conditions. Apparently CO2 emisions are apparently increasing at a record
3.5% per annum. Partly because the politicians in the developed countries
are attempting to meet emission targets by exporting energy hungry
industries to the 3rd world. Looks like bye bye polar bears.

Graham
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably
down to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with
rainfall, overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier
summers, and this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in the
south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham

Most of it seems to have come up to Scotland. Over the last few years there
seems to have been substantial increases in rainfall totals particularly in
northern Scotland. Its my impression that there are an increasing number of
Highs over the southern UK leading to increasing frontal activity over the
peripheral areas to the north much of this activity seems to be much slower
moving leading to much higher daily totals: eg over 46mm yesterday.
I would appreciate comments on this perception from more experienced and
informed experts in this group. I have been trying to make comparisons on my
recent data with longer term data from Met Office stations nearby but could
not afford the £1000ish charge which the Met Office were trying to get from
me for monthly temp, rainfall, and wind data from just one site over a 10
year period. Certainly local perception is that there is a lot more heavy
prolonged rainfall as well an increasing frequency of severe gales and
storms than were common over the last 40 years.

Alan
www.carbostweather.co.uk

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...
Graham

Going on my records since 1989, there seems to be relatively little
change in the annual rainfall totals, it just seems to be shifting in
when it actually falls throughout the year, i.e., drier spring & summers;
wetter autumn and winters.

Yes, slightly drier spring & summer here as well. The rainfall here has
always been very seasonal, but is even more so now.

I believe this fits in with earlier models showing the effects of a
warming climate on the UK. If the climate continues to warm then this
shifting of rainfall pattern is predicted to get more extreme.

I agree. Also what I find interesting is the warming over the last couple
of decades here has been slightly greater in summer than winter. This
counters the argument that warmer winters are just down to the lack of
blocking conditions. Apparently CO2 emisions are apparently increasing at
a record 3.5% per annum. Partly because the politicians in the developed
countries are attempting to meet emission targets by exporting energy
hungry industries to the 3rd world. Looks like bye bye polar bears.

Graham
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

"Graham Easterling" wrote in
message ...

"Nick G" wrote in message
...
I'm not a meteorologist either but this winter dry spell is probably
down to natural variability and next year we could be inundated with
rainfall, overall though there is a pattern of ever increasingly drier
summers, and this applies to much of England but is more enhanced in
the south-east.
________________
Nick G
Exe Valley, Devon
50 m amsl

It certainly seems to be down to natural variability here in Penzance,
although admittedly I'm not in the SE.
Winter rainfall totals as a % of the 1971-2000 norm being:-

Winter % of Norm
92/93 76
93/94 152
94/95 112
95/96 107
96/97 66
97/98 84
98/99 108
99/00 128
00/01 133
01/02 97
02/03 110
03/04 99
04/05 57
Av of the 13 years 102%
7 Winters wetter than average, 6 drier.

Overall it's beem getting slightly wetter in recent decades
1971-1980 Average - 1140.9mm
1981-1990 Average - 1165.9mm
1991-2000 Average - 1261.2mm
& warmer
1961-1990 Mean Temp - 11.1
1971-2000 Mean Temp - 11.3
1991-2000 Mean Temp - 11.6

Graham