http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_joe_b.asp

"February made me shiver, With each paper I'd deliver, "

Interesting reading.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

On 17 Jan 2006 06:55:26 -0800, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_joe_b.asp

"February made me shiver, With each paper I'd deliver, "

Interesting reading.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Joe has been talking about this for a while - the line "ten days away"
has often been mentioned since November.

I think the overall important thing is that this cold air seems to be
becoming established. And by the time it reaches Germany the synoptic
set-up would only need a "slight tweak" to bring serious snowfall to
Eastern England.

Perhaps a repeat of '91 in on the cards!

Personally, this bloke makes me cringe.
"I was a lonely teenage broncing buck, a line from that song if you have
ever heard it, when I first heard the song. And as we end January and head
into February the arctic barbarian is at the gate. For western Europe a full
scale assault from the east is still 10 days away. I believe that any
westward movement of what is a nasty air mass over Russia will only make it
to Germany and not get over the Alps. This is because we are still not ready
to go to the negative NAO. But be forewarned, a February that could bring
back memories of last February may be on the way. "

His English is appalling, even for an American journalist. His geography
isn't too hot either. Where are the particular set of Alps that are between
Russia and most of Western Europe? It's always the charlatan's "just over 10
days" time as well. This has two advantages. No one remembers what you said
in 10 days time and secondly there aren't many charts available after that
for anyone to challenge the theory. Memories of February - be
forewarned -well that's scary, with temperatures above freezing and no snow
settling. (East Kent excepted). There will no doubt be a cold snap at some
point this winter, possibly in two weeks time and I can't wait for everyone
to tell me how it was colder than average. The reality is that so far in
most of the South East and East Anglia (and most likely lots of the rest of
the country - except Dartmoor ;-) ) it has been the most boring, dull,
non-extreme winter for several years.
It will take something very special now to change my view but I would still
prefer to end up eating humble pie rather than American Pie!

Dave

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
oups.com...
http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_joe_b.asp

"February made me shiver, With each paper I'd deliver, "

Interesting reading.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Dave.C wrote:

Personally, this bloke makes me cringe.

He just makes me laf.

Martin

It's a bit like the same crap our very own Met office churns out. As I've
said so many times before, lets wait and see.
I still claim that three days ahead is about the maximum accuracy you can
get no matter what fancy terms you spout whether it be American or English.
"JPG" wrote in message
ups.com...

Dave.C wrote:

Personally, this bloke makes me cringe.

He just makes me laf.

Martin

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
The reality is that so far in
most of the South East and East Anglia (and most likely lots of the rest of
the country - except Dartmoor ;-) ) it has been the most boring, dull,
non-extreme winter for several years.

Hi Dave, not as exciting as previous winters on Dartmoor. Very few gales, very
few days of *really* heavy driving rain (25mm per day) and very few showery
polar air days with frequent showers of hail, sleet and snow. OK we have had a
bit of sun, some rain (a lot by SE standards probably) and we have had a few
reasonable light snow falls, some frosts and a few "wind chill below freezing"
days but nothing out of the ordinary for up here. Yet !!!

As far as I can see the upper trough will relax away to the west of the UK next
weekend allowing an intrusion of rather cold air into SE England by Sunday
evening before the next system comes into NW Britain and then the next trough
relaxes away yet further west middle of next week allowing a greater push
westwards of the very cold air now over Russia. The push west will be like a
density current i.e. it will have a "nose" and the cold air will arrive at the
lowest levels first meaning that 850hPa temperatures will not be a useful
indicator for onset, screen temperatures will be the best guide. Odds are still
against a very severe cold spell in the UK but they are not zero and it is my
view that the UK will end up in a battleground with very cold air to the east or
even northeast of us and milder air to the southwest. Most of the "action" I
think could be in the west leaving eastern areas in a cold grey scenario with
occasional snow grains or drizzle. But we shall see, it's an awful long way off
yet. That was one of my three scenarios if you remember from one of my earlier
posts where I thought that pressure building right over the UK was the most
likely outcome. I've changed my mind slightly on that now. Either way the most
serious implication is that I cannot see SE England getting enough much needed
rainfall this winter which does not bode at all well for the summer water
situation.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scott Whitehead wrote:
On 17 Jan 2006 06:55:26 -0800, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_joe_b.asp

"February made me shiver, With each paper I'd deliver, "

Interesting reading.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Joe has been talking about this for a while - the line "ten days away"
has often been mentioned since November.

I think the overall important thing is that this cold air seems to be
becoming established. And by the time it reaches Germany the synoptic
set-up would only need a "slight tweak" to bring serious snowfall to
Eastern England.

Perhaps a repeat of '91 in on the cards!

One thing I did notice was that most of Poland yesterday didn't get
above -6°c

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

GKN wrote:
It's a bit like the same crap our very own Met office churns out. As I've
said so many times before, lets wait and see.
I still claim that three days ahead is about the maximum accuracy you can
get no matter what fancy terms you spout whether it be American or English.
"JPG" wrote in message
ups.com...
Dave.C wrote:

Personally, this bloke makes me cringe.
He just makes me laf.

Martin




I wouldn't say he's going for accuracy, more a trend.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

In article .com,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_joe_b.asp

"February made me shiver, With each paper I'd deliver, "

Interesting reading.

But the next line of the song, IIRC, is "Bad news on the doorstep, I
couldn't take one more step." For most here, wouldn't that imply mild
weather being forecast in the further outlook?
--
John Hall

"I am not young enough to know everything."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

Thanks for that Will - what percentage.... - no sorry, only kidding ;-) .
It's interesting how the moors seemed to be designed to take the rain, with
their free draining soils and slopes. That measly 2mm has turned everywhere
into a temporarily sloppy mud here in flat old, clayey Essex.
I just hope we can get some sun and maybe some decent rain before the hoped
for cold push.
Cheers,
Dave
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Dave.C" wrote in message
...
The reality is that so far in
most of the South East and East Anglia (and most likely lots of the rest
of
the country - except Dartmoor ;-) ) it has been the most boring, dull,
non-extreme winter for several years.

Hi Dave, not as exciting as previous winters on Dartmoor. Very few gales,
very
few days of *really* heavy driving rain (25mm per day) and very few
showery
polar air days with frequent showers of hail, sleet and snow. OK we have
had a
bit of sun, some rain (a lot by SE standards probably) and we have had a
few
reasonable light snow falls, some frosts and a few "wind chill below
freezing"
days but nothing out of the ordinary for up here. Yet !!!

As far as I can see the upper trough will relax away to the west of the UK
next
weekend allowing an intrusion of rather cold air into SE England by Sunday
evening before the next system comes into NW Britain and then the next
trough
relaxes away yet further west middle of next week allowing a greater push
westwards of the very cold air now over Russia. The push west will be like
a
density current i.e. it will have a "nose" and the cold air will arrive at
the
lowest levels first meaning that 850hPa temperatures will not be a useful
indicator for onset, screen temperatures will be the best guide. Odds are
still
against a very severe cold spell in the UK but they are not zero and it is
my
view that the UK will end up in a battleground with very cold air to the
east or
even northeast of us and milder air to the southwest. Most of the "action"
I
think could be in the west leaving eastern areas in a cold grey scenario
with
occasional snow grains or drizzle. But we shall see, it's an awful long
way off
yet. That was one of my three scenarios if you remember from one of my
earlier
posts where I thought that pressure building right over the UK was the
most
likely outcome. I've changed my mind slightly on that now. Either way the
most
serious implication is that I cannot see SE England getting enough much
needed
rainfall this winter which does not bode at all well for the summer water
situation.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----