A MET office bod on five live this morning was claiming that thier severe
winter weather forecasts issued last Autumn for this winter was accurate. He
based this assumption on the fact that this winter so far is the 4th coldest
in the last 10 years!

"Stuart" wrote in message
...
A MET office bod on five live this morning was claiming that thier severe
winter weather forecasts issued last Autumn for this winter was accurate. He
based this assumption on the fact that this winter so far is the 4th coldest
in the last 10 years!


Any names?

4th coldest in last ten years means nothing.
Winter is not yet over either. Far from it.

Will.
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Stuart" wrote in message
...
A MET office bod on five live this morning was claiming that thier severe
winter weather forecasts issued last Autumn for this winter was accurate.
He
based this assumption on the fact that this winter so far is the 4th
coldest
in the last 10 years!


Any names?

4th coldest in last ten years means nothing.
esspecially when the last 10 years have seen some of the warmest winters
ever.

Winter is not yet over either. Far from it.

Absolutely, fingers crossed for end of next week!

Felly sgrifennodd Stuart :
A MET office bod on five live this morning was claiming that thier severe
winter weather forecasts issued last Autumn for this winter was accurate. He
based this assumption on the fact that this winter so far is the 4th coldest
in the last 10 years!

It is strange that you should post this now; I too was thinking only the
other day how good a forecast it was.

(suggest you go and read the original text, re-posted by Will recently,
then look at what's been happening over much of central Europe)

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
Felly sgrifennodd Stuart :
A MET office bod on five live this morning was claiming that thier severe
winter weather forecasts issued last Autumn for this winter was accurate.
He
based this assumption on the fact that this winter so far is the 4th
coldest
in the last 10 years!

It is strange that you should post this now; I too was thinking only the
other day how good a forecast it was.

Where abouts in the UK are you?, here in the Scottish Borders it has been
incredably mild, highlights so far, 1 day of wet snow and have needed to
scrape Ice of car window about twice! Today we had a rather balmy 14°C


(suggest you go and read the original text, re-posted by Will recently

Do you have a link to this?

then look at what's been happening over much of central Europe)

Why, I was interested in the accuracy for the UK forecast

Felly sgrifennodd Stuart :
Where abouts in the UK are you?, here in the Scottish Borders it has been
incredably mild, highlights so far, 1 day of wet snow and have needed to
scrape Ice of car window about twice! Today we had a rather balmy 14°C

I seem to remember that the forecasts at the time were indeed predicting
what you (and we here in west Wales) have seen; a milder than usual
winter. It was the south-east that was mentioned as possibly coming
under the influence of the continental weather.

(suggest you go and read the original text, re-posted by Will recently

Do you have a link to this?

No, but I'm sure someone else does.

then look at what's been happening over much of central Europe)

Why, I was interested in the accuracy for the UK forecast

Because the Met Office forecast focussed on that. If you read it, you'll see
what I mean.

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

Felly sgrifennodd Adrian D. Shaw :
Felly sgrifennodd Stuart :
(suggest you go and read the original text, re-posted by Will recently

Do you have a link to this?

OK I went and found it, posted by Will on Jan 14th:

= Here is what the Met Office actually predicted, taken from their web
= site today 14/1/06

=" The Met Office continues to predict a two in three chance of a
= colder-than-average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of
=the UK - especially southern regions - are expected to have temperatures
=below normal. There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter
=over much of the UK.

=The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the
= impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
=winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6. "

The Met Office were dead right about the colder than average winter for much
of Europe, which they predicted at 2/3 chance.

They did not, however, make ANY probability predicion regarding either the
length of, nor the severity of, any effect from this in southern UK.
There was (so I'm told; I was in central Europe at the time, suffering the
cold and enjoying the snow) a spell of cold weather in the south-east
recently, which I assume can be attibuted to the central European cold. So
they arguably got that right too.

Note also that they made absolutely no temperature prediction in this
forecast for most of the UK. They did, however, get the "drier than
average" right.

The only possible thing in this forecast that you can point to as being
anything other than right is the last line. But "balance of probability"
only means 50% anyway, and even that may yet come off.

Was that a good forecast or what? Considering it was issued so far in
advance, I'm very impressed.

Adrian

--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

In message , Adrian D. Shaw
writes

snip


The Met Office were dead right about the colder than average winter for much
of Europe, which they predicted at 2/3 chance.

They did not, however, make ANY probability predicion regarding either the
length of, nor the severity of, any effect from this in southern UK.
There was (so I'm told; I was in central Europe at the time, suffering the
cold and enjoying the snow) a spell of cold weather in the south-east
recently, which I assume can be attibuted to the central European cold. So
they arguably got that right too.

Note also that they made absolutely no temperature prediction in this
forecast for most of the UK. They did, however, get the "drier than
average" right.

The only possible thing in this forecast that you can point to as being
anything other than right is the last line. But "balance of probability"
only means 50% anyway, and even that may yet come off.

Was that a good forecast or what? Considering it was issued so far in
advance, I'm very impressed.

Adrian

As I pointed out in another thread earlier today a single probability
forecast cannot be "right" or "wrong". What matters is how many 2
chances in 3 predictions actually happen. The forecasting is accurate if
it is 2 occasions in 3, on average.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"Adrian D. Shaw" wrote in message
...
Felly sgrifennodd Adrian D. Shaw :
Felly sgrifennodd Stuart :
(suggest you go and read the original text, re-posted by Will recently

Do you have a link to this?

OK I went and found it, posted by Will on Jan 14th:

= Here is what the Met Office actually predicted, taken from their web
= site today 14/1/06

=" The Met Office continues to predict a two in three chance of a
= colder-than-average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true,
parts of
=the UK - especially southern regions - are expected to have temperatures
=below normal. There is also an indication for a drier-than-average
winter
=over much of the UK.

=The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given
the
= impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a
=winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6. "

The Met Office were dead right about the colder than average winter for
much
of Europe, which they predicted at 2/3 chance.

They did not, however, make ANY probability predicion regarding either the
length of, nor the severity of, any effect from this in southern UK.
There was (so I'm told; I was in central Europe at the time, suffering the
cold and enjoying the snow) a spell of cold weather in the south-east
recently, which I assume can be attibuted to the central European cold. So
they arguably got that right too.


Thanks for that Adrian, I must hold my hands up and say I was wrong.

This is the first time I have seen the Met Office's forecast issued last
Autumn, undoubtedly I was going of the media's interpretation of the Met
Office forecast that back in November were indicating a winter to end all
winters (along with no Gas, Bird Flue and electricity cuts.

I wonder if I will ever learn not to watch the news or read newspapers!

"Stuart" wrote in message
...
A MET office bod on five live this morning was claiming that thier severe
winter weather forecasts issued last Autumn for this winter was accurate.
He based this assumption on the fact that this winter so far is the 4th
coldest in the last 10 years!







The Met Office DIDNT forecast a severe winter. Only the coldest for ten
years, average to slightly below average.

How many times does this need to be said?