This evening's GFS run is just about perfect to produce a major snow fest
over much of the country to end the month.
Of course it's only one run and at the extremes of the ensemble, but it's
good too see the ensembles mean moving towards the likelyhood of an extended
cold period at a time of year when it's most effective, the like of which we
haven't had for a number of years.
February 91 and January 87.
Keep the cork in the bottle though, and let it chill.
Alex.

ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Conditions in Wishaw @ 6:50pm, 20/1/06
Temperature 5.9°C. Dew point 3.1ºC. 82.0%RH
Mean wind speed 9mph from the West South West. Gusting to 16mph.
Remarks; , 0.0mm precipitation in the past hour.
Cloud cover: Broken Clouds
MSLP 1011.8mb, Rising.
Today's Max. 9.9°C at 12:19am.
Today's min. 3.1°C at 10:37am.
Today's rain 9.4mm
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

"Alex Stephens Jr" schreef in bericht
.uk...
This evening's GFS run is just about perfect to produce a major snow fest
over much of the country to end the month.
Of course it's only one run and at the extremes of the ensemble, but it's
good too see the ensembles mean moving towards the likelyhood of an
extended cold period at a time of year when it's most effective, the like
of which we haven't had for a number of years.
February 91 and January 87.
Keep the cork in the bottle though, and let it chill.
Alex.

It certainly doesn't look too bad, Alex! "The Russian Bear slowly moves on"
(translation of Dutch winterlovers-talk!!). But particularly in this
situation Dutch meteorologists are very cautious - they tell us that the
Russian high is too far north-east and as one concluded: by Wednesday
moderate overnight-frost and the maximum temperature will stay beyond
freezing (Meteoconsult); the KNMI (Dutch Metoffice) give us maxima around +
3 C - light frost at night. In Holland its frost that counts, more than
snow.
This is what happens in Germany -- it's where we'd love to see our
winter-weather coming from:
http://www.wetter.com/v2/img/wx/gme_...201200_072.gif

Wijke
Centre of the Netherlands

Its more like cup of Tea time for snow lovers this morning!
The 00Z run has almost got rid of the Easterly entirely.
I'm always amazed at how big the changes can be in 6 hours..
Phil

The Models are a waste of time. IMO don't bother looking more than two days
ahead, because if it can change so drasically in six hours what is the hope
in six days!
Regards. Len.
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Its more like cup of Tea time for snow lovers this morning!
The 00Z run has almost got rid of the Easterly entirely.
I'm always amazed at how big the changes can be in 6 hours..
Phil

In article ,
Phil Layton writes:
Its more like cup of Tea time for snow lovers this morning!
The 00Z run has almost got rid of the Easterly entirely.
I'm always amazed at how big the changes can be in 6 hours..
Phil


The GFS 00Z operational run was very much a mild outlier though:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

(By the time you read this, the 00Z ensemble may well have been
succeeded by the 06Z. What's the betting that it will be completely
different?)
--
John Hall "Never play cards with a man called Doc.
Never eat at a place called Mom's.
Never sleep with a woman whose troubles
are worse than your own." Nelson Algren

No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well. I use that model to form
the basic synoptic overview and signal and then the other models to fill in on
the potential details, discarding outliers (but not completely). The signal from
ECMWF has been consistent in bringing in a polar continental airmass but how
much the airmass will be modified by the time it reaches the UK depends on
detail that will become clearer with time.

I see no major changes to my weekly forecast signal.

Cheers,

Will.
--

"GKN" wrote in message
.uk...
The Models are a waste of time. IMO don't bother looking more than two days
ahead, because if it can change so drasically in six hours what is the hope
in six days!
Regards. Len.
"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Its more like cup of Tea time for snow lovers this morning!
The 00Z run has almost got rid of the Easterly entirely.
I'm always amazed at how big the changes can be in 6 hours..
Phil

Will Hand wrote:
No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well. I use that model to form
the basic synoptic overview and signal and then the other models to fill in on
the potential details, discarding outliers (but not completely). The signal from
ECMWF has been consistent in bringing in a polar continental airmass but how
much the airmass will be modified by the time it reaches the UK depends on
detail that will become clearer with time.

I see no major changes to my weekly forecast signal.

Cheers,

Will.

Thanks for trying to keep things level on the newsgroup. I imagine many,
like myself, had big hopes for this winter, and see it slipping away
gradually now. I was certainly gutted this morning to see things take a
turn for the worse as the 'two weeks away' scenario starts to become a
'bridge to far'. Yes, I know it can snow in late February and March, but
it doesn't stick around in a crisp and powdery form :-(

I think someone also mentioned the other day that the SST anomalies are
not favorable, certainly no cold pool to the south of Newfoundland,
quite the reverse. The Atlantic jet appears to be just to strong running
up the Norwegian Sea.

So, if we do get something in the next week or two, it won't be a
sustained event like we reminisce about with 47 or 63.

Now what have I done with GFS tablets I get from the doctors ?
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you
know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my
model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well.

Would generally agree re EC. Also interesting to note how the operational
runs of both EC and the GFS have picked up the change of type well in
advance but often as outliers. The ensembles then falling into line with
time. IIRC something similar happened with the snow event just after
Christmas.

EC's upgrade now only 10 days away
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/change...tion_2005.html

current stats.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ST.../aczhist6.html

Re your GFS life post, what happens when a particular run is delayed ?!
E.g.if the 18Z doesn't arrive does it mean no sleep ? :-)
In fairness the NWS appear to have few (obvious) problems with their
computing operations and the speed and consistency of their delivery is a
credit to them.

Jon.


..

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
No the models are not a waste of time. Useful signals are there if you
know how
to interpret and understand them.

Forecasting is a *skilled* job. Can everybody become an architect, make
funiture, or do plumbing from scratch? It's the same in meteorology.

Here's a big hint. In the run up to this *potential* very cold spell my
model of
choice has been ECMWF as it has performed very well. I use that model to
form
the basic synoptic overview and signal and then the other models to fill
in on
the potential details, discarding outliers (but not completely). The
signal from
ECMWF has been consistent in bringing in a polar continental airmass but
how
much the airmass will be modified by the time it reaches the UK depends on
detail that will become clearer with time.
Will.

How often are the ECMWF charts updated

Jim

"Jim" wrote in message
...

How often are the ECMWF charts updated

Jim

Twice a day, see
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.w...put.htm#Output

Jon.