Unlikely scenario
 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

It appears to me that this scenario is very unlikely (this year). The
emphasis seems to be the jet running NE between Scotland and Iceland
right up the Norweigen Sea, preventing blocking in these regions, hence
the Russian Highs and the like are pushed either over us or back into
the continent. I don't see any reason for this to change is February.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Unlikely scenario
 

Reminds me of the jokes along the lines -
Man goes to the Doctor and says "Every time I look at these GFS maps there
seems to be a cold spell in two weeks time, what should I do?"
The doctor says "Stop looking!"

Dave
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

It appears to me that this scenario is very unlikely (this year). The
emphasis seems to be the jet running NE between Scotland and Iceland
right up the Norweigen Sea, preventing blocking in these regions, hence
the Russian Highs and the like are pushed either over us or back into
the continent. I don't see any reason for this to change is February.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

Unlikely scenario
 

In message , Dave.C
writes
Reminds me of the jokes along the lines -
Man goes to the Doctor and says "Every time I look at these GFS maps there
seems to be a cold spell in two weeks time, what should I do?"
The doctor says "Stop looking!"

Dave
"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

It appears to me that this scenario is very unlikely (this year). The
emphasis seems to be the jet running NE between Scotland and Iceland
right up the Norweigen Sea, preventing blocking in these regions, hence
the Russian Highs and the like are pushed either over us or back into
the continent. I don't see any reason for this to change is February.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
Keith. Latest GFS in many days time gives a glimmer of winter. I am
not too sure about the jet continuing in its current position
perpetuating an upper ridge over Scotland at its right exit(ish).
Indeed the T=144 onwards suggests a slight backing and a consequent high
over western Scandinavia (which quickly slips southwards). Quite
frankly I am relying on the GFS less and less after 144. It all looks
logical - as all machine products obviously do - but I feel it has
served us ill this winter. Its consistency at the later half of its
output is dreadful in my opinion.
Anyway I thought you had given this winter up and had fallen on your
sword :).
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

Unlikely scenario
 

Paul Bartlett wrote:

Anyway I thought you had given this winter up and had fallen on your
sword :).
Cheers
Paul

I used the 'GFS freefall program' to fall on the sword, subsequently I
missed ;-)

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net