I have been an advocate of probability forecasting on here for a few years
now. I have however been giving it some more thought and do have some
misgivings. What I have noticed in a forecast such as, say, "90% confidence
dry and mild, 10% cold and heavy snow" is that the interpretation by some of
the outcome is:-
1. If it is dry and mild then it was a good forecast.
2. If it is cold and there is heavy snow then there is the comment along
the lines "brilliant forecast, only a 10% chance and he/she was the only one
to spot it." (Not 90% inaccurate!)

This is happening to some extent, I feel, with the UKMO winter forecast. In
the overall expectation of 66% chance of being colder than average, people
that think it hasn't been that cold are saying it was good because it never
really said it would be and people that think it has been cold are saying it
was good because there was a 66% chance.

Perhaps the best option is to give a confidence in a particular forecast
with no other scenarios or their associated confidence.
(Which of course, the Met Office has in effect)
This is just some thoughts I've been having and am quite open to other
viewpoints as there is clearly more to it (or at least it's intrepretation)
than meets the eye.

Dave