================================================== ==============================
===
This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to
share freely with others.

================================================== ==============================
===

Summary valid for Sunday 19/02/06 to Saturday 25/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 16/02/06 2000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Moderate confidence that this week will see the first widespread snowfall of the
winter in England and Wales. Possible disruption to transport services. Very
high confidence, however, that the week will be very cold with northeasterly
winds setting in.

On Sunday a developing low will track east across northern France and then
become slow moving over Belgium and Holland before filling up by midweek and
then drifting south. The low will spread rain eastwards across southern coastal
counties on Sunday morning with strengthening east or northeast winds. The rain
will turn heavy and persistent giving a spell of snow above 400m asl. Track
uncertain, so northern edge uncertain. Later in the day as the low turns
slightly northeast the rain will spread into much of SE England and the Midlands
and during the evening will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on hills above
about 150m asl. During the night the precipitation should drift eastwards with
SW England becoming mainly dry but by Monday morning sleet and snow will be
falling at low levels as temperatures fall to freezing giving a covering of snow
in east and SE England. Lower risk of snowfall further west and north but
certainly possible. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cold and showery with
sleet and snow on high ground. NW England showery with wintry showers on hills
but possibly some rain, sleet and snow getting into NE England on Monday. Winds
fresh to strong northeasterly in the south and east with some drifting snow on
high ground. Moderate to fresh winds further north.

On Tuesday and Wednesday moderate to fresh, locally strong, east or
northeasterly winds will bring further spells of rain, sleet and snow to all
areas. Rain mainly near the coast and on very low ground but inland, and
especially over hills, several centimetres of snow are likely in exposed places.
East and SE England seem likely to catch most snow. However, SW England
(especially moors) could get some heavy snow on Wednesday as a front brushes by
from the east. NW England and Scotland and Northern Ireland, brighter but still
with wintry showers and some drifting on high ground.

For the rest of the week the trend will be for pressure to build to the north of
Britain, so staying very cold and much drier in the north with severe frost
setting in at night. Further sleet and snow showers in the south and east with
frost at night. Drifting of lying snow in the moderate to fresh winds in the
south.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for it to stay
very cold with severe overnight frosts and further sleet and snow at times.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 18th/19th February 2006.

Saturday looks like being mainly cloudy with spells of rain. Possibly some sleet
and snow above 500m asl. Some sunny intervals below 300m asl. On Sunday rain
with snow above 400m asl will set in during the early hours. Winds will become
easterly fresh to strong with local gales on the south moor where blizzard and
dangerous whiteout conditions are possible on the plateau for a time. Rain
turning increasingly to snow at all levels during the day but also tending to
die out from the west. Confidence moderate. Temperatures generally 1-4 deg C but
falling to freezing above 300m asl by end of Sunday. Walkers are advised to get
an up to date weather check before venturing out on Sunday. Sledging conditions
could become good on Sunday afternoon but strong winds and heavy snow may make
access difficult, also drifting could become a problem.

Will Hand

Chief forecaster

Last week's forecast below as usual

================================================== ==============================
==

Summary valid for Sunday 12/02/06 to Saturday 18/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 10/02/06 1930 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

High confidence that this week will become wet and windy in all areas for a
time. Moderate confidence on turning colder later with some snow (mainly on
hills) next weekend.

Sunday and Monday look like turning milder as winds swing into the west
spreading rain eastwards. Rain only light and patchy though in the southeast.
Heavier rain spreading eastwards from the Atlantic on Tuesday and turning mild.
After Tuesday and for the rest of the week a deep depression will track east to
northern Scotland with secondary depressions running east towards the UK. This
means that bands of quite heavy rain and strong westerly winds will sweep across
all areas. Showers and brighter interludes in between. Gales likely in places on
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures close to normal. Later in the week winds
should ease and winds will turn more northwesterly and it will get colder.
Remaining very showery with more rain which will turn to sleet and snow on high
ground above 300m asl, even in the south. Possibly some heavy and prolonged snow
in the Scottish mountains. Generally too windy and cloudy for frost next week,
although later in the week temperatures will fall close to freezing in upland
areas.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for the cold
and changeable weather to gradually give way to more settled conditions
spreading in from the west as pressure builds again.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 11th/12th February 2006.

Hope everyone remembered the suncream last Sunday while out walking. Fantastic
wasn't it! This weekend looks like being mainly cloudy. Saturday mostly dry
after perhaps a bit of light sleet and snow very early in the morning. Possibly
some sunny intervals and light winds. Temperatures rising to near normal at 3-5
deg C (depending on altitude). On Sunday the SW wind will freshen and the cloud
base will lower below the plateau as rain and drizzle sets in. Turning milder
with temperatures up to 6 deg C.

Will Hand (Chief forecaster)

================================================== ============================

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==============================
===
This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.

================================================== ==============================
===

Summary valid for Sunday 19/02/06 to Saturday 25/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 16/02/06 2000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Moderate confidence that this week will see the first widespread snowfall
of the
winter in England and Wales. Possible disruption to transport services.
Very
high confidence, however, that the week will be very cold with
northeasterly
winds setting in.

On Sunday a developing low will track east across northern France and then
become slow moving over Belgium and Holland before filling up by midweek
and
then drifting south. The low will spread rain eastwards across southern
coastal
counties on Sunday morning with strengthening east or northeast winds. The
rain
will turn heavy and persistent giving a spell of snow above 400m asl.
Track
uncertain, so northern edge uncertain. Later in the day as the low turns
slightly northeast the rain will spread into much of SE England and the
Midlands
and during the evening will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on hills
above
about 150m asl. During the night the precipitation should drift eastwards
with
SW England becoming mainly dry but by Monday morning sleet and snow will
be
falling at low levels as temperatures fall to freezing giving a covering
of snow
in east and SE England. Lower risk of snowfall further west and north but
certainly possible. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cold and showery
with
sleet and snow on high ground. NW England showery with wintry showers on
hills
but possibly some rain, sleet and snow getting into NE England on Monday.
Winds
fresh to strong northeasterly in the south and east with some drifting
snow on
high ground. Moderate to fresh winds further north.

On Tuesday and Wednesday moderate to fresh, locally strong, east or
northeasterly winds will bring further spells of rain, sleet and snow to
all
areas. Rain mainly near the coast and on very low ground but inland, and
especially over hills, several centimetres of snow are likely in exposed
places.
East and SE England seem likely to catch most snow. However, SW England
(especially moors) could get some heavy snow on Wednesday as a front
brushes by
from the east. NW England and Scotland and Northern Ireland, brighter but
still
with wintry showers and some drifting on high ground.

For the rest of the week the trend will be for pressure to build to the
north of
Britain, so staying very cold and much drier in the north with severe
frost
setting in at night. Further sleet and snow showers in the south and east
with
frost at night. Drifting of lying snow in the moderate to fresh winds in
the
south.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for it
to stay
very cold with severe overnight frosts and further sleet and snow at
times.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 18th/19th February 2006.

Saturday looks like being mainly cloudy with spells of rain. Possibly some
sleet
and snow above 500m asl. Some sunny intervals below 300m asl. On Sunday
rain
with snow above 400m asl will set in during the early hours. Winds will
become
easterly fresh to strong with local gales on the south moor where blizzard
and
dangerous whiteout conditions are possible on the plateau for a time. Rain
turning increasingly to snow at all levels during the day but also tending
to
die out from the west. Confidence moderate. Temperatures generally 1-4 deg
C but
falling to freezing above 300m asl by end of Sunday. Walkers are advised
to get
an up to date weather check before venturing out on Sunday. Sledging
conditions
could become good on Sunday afternoon but strong winds and heavy snow may
make
access difficult, also drifting could become a problem.

Will Hand

Chief forecaster


Phew. This will get everyone talking.

Gavin.

Blimey Will you ought to post this on TWO , im sure the sever will
implode.
having said that i do hope we aint in for ANOTHER big let down ...

Will Hand wrote:

================================================== ==========================
====
===
This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief
forecaster at the privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon
on how the weather may unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will
take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising from its
use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great
love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and wish to share
freely with others.


================================================== ==========================
====
===

Summary valid for Sunday 19/02/06 to Saturday 25/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 16/02/06 2000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF,
UKMO, FAX, and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the
superb http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Moderate confidence that this week will see the first widespread
snowfall of the winter in England and Wales. Possible disruption to
transport services. Very high confidence, however, that the week will
be very cold with northeasterly winds setting in.

On Sunday a developing low will track east across northern France and
then become slow moving over Belgium and Holland before filling up by
midweek and then drifting south. The low will spread rain eastwards
across southern coastal counties on Sunday morning with strengthening
east or northeast winds. The rain will turn heavy and persistent
giving a spell of snow above 400m asl. Track uncertain, so northern
edge uncertain. Later in the day as the low turns slightly northeast
the rain will spread into much of SE England and the Midlands and
during the evening will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on hills
above about 150m asl. During the night the precipitation should drift
eastwards with SW England becoming mainly dry but by Monday morning
sleet and snow will be falling at low levels as temperatures fall to
freezing giving a covering of snow in east and SE England. Lower risk
of snowfall further west and north but certainly possible. Scotland
and Northern Ireland will be cold and showery with sleet and snow on
high ground. NW England showery with wintry showers on hills but
possibly some rain, sleet and snow getting into NE England on Monday.
Winds fresh to strong northeasterly in the south and east with some
drifting snow on high ground. Moderate to fresh winds further north.

On Tuesday and Wednesday moderate to fresh, locally strong, east or
northeasterly winds will bring further spells of rain, sleet and snow
to all areas. Rain mainly near the coast and on very low ground but
inland, and especially over hills, several centimetres of snow are
likely in exposed places. East and SE England seem likely to catch
most snow. However, SW England (especially moors) could get some
heavy snow on Wednesday as a front brushes by from the east. NW
England and Scotland and Northern Ireland, brighter but still with
wintry showers and some drifting on high ground.

For the rest of the week the trend will be for pressure to build to
the north of Britain, so staying very cold and much drier in the
north with severe frost setting in at night. Further sleet and snow
showers in the south and east with frost at night. Drifting of lying
snow in the moderate to fresh winds in the south.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for
it to stay very cold with severe overnight frosts and further sleet
and snow at times.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for
the weekend of 18th/19th February 2006.

Saturday looks like being mainly cloudy with spells of rain. Possibly
some sleet and snow above 500m asl. Some sunny intervals below 300m
asl. On Sunday rain with snow above 400m asl will set in during the
early hours. Winds will become easterly fresh to strong with local
gales on the south moor where blizzard and dangerous whiteout
conditions are possible on the plateau for a time. Rain turning
increasingly to snow at all levels during the day but also tending to
die out from the west. Confidence moderate. Temperatures generally
1-4 deg C but falling to freezing above 300m asl by end of Sunday.
Walkers are advised to get an up to date weather check before
venturing out on Sunday. Sledging conditions could become good on
Sunday afternoon but strong winds and heavy snow may make access
difficult, also drifting could become a problem.


If it had been anyone else writing this but you, Will, I would have
dismissed them as a crank!
--
Rob Overfield
Hull

Phew. This will get everyone talking.

Gavin.


Snow next week for se england? ill believe it when i see it
a rather gfs hyped up winter so far!

nguk wrote:

Snow next week for se england? ill believe it when i see it
a rather gfs hyped up winter so far!

/me points at the snow at the end of last year and wonders why people
aren't happy with one significant event a season!

The situation seems oddly similar to exactly the same point in time last
year when snow started to fall on the 22nd Feb and continued through to
the start of March. Then it wasn't *quite* cold enough for significant
accumulations.

--
Jonathan Stott
Canterbury Weather: http://www.canterburyweather.co.uk/
Reverse my e-mail address to reply by e-mail

"vince" wrote in message
ups.com...
Blimey Will you ought to post this on TWO , im sure the sever will
implode.
having said that i do hope we aint in for ANOTHER big let down ...


As I said in the forecast my confidence is moderate.
Make your own mind up how Haytor meteorological office has been doing recently.
All I do is say it how I see it.

Will.
--

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks Will.
From the silence yesterday I was beginning to think that I was the only one
that thought we were in for some snow.
As far as I can see tonight, the models are going for at least a week long
cold spell - with amazing agreement. Its not often weve seen that.
Who says it doesnt snow a week after the USA :-)
Even Ian Currie is predicting a White Christmas 2006 already!

Phil

In article . com,
vince writes:
Blimey Will you ought to post this on TWO , im sure the sever will
implode.

Someone (not me - I wouldn't do it without asking permission first) has
done it for him, on the Model Discussion thread.

having said that i do hope we aint in for ANOTHER big let down ...

Fingers crossed.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

but have'nt we got the advantage this year of the North sea sst's
colder ?.. still we aint there yet ;-)