Thanks for your honesty too Danny. I must admit had we had sub 510 DAM air mixed
in I would have gone the whole hog and confidently forecast widespread deep snow
with transport and supply problems etc etc. However, the expected sub 528 DAM
upper trough is well supported and looks broad enough to contain some deep cold
air in depth. I acknowledge that lighter winds could mean air spending more time
over the North Sea but sea temperatures are near their lowest now, nevertheless
I did go for rain as the more likely option near the coast and on very low
ground. Some interesting weather ahead!

Will.
--

"danny (west kent)" wrote in message
...
Hi Will,
Thanks for the forecast. I always enjoy reading your forecasts 'cause I know
effort and honesty goes into it. Something I can't get on TV etc.
I disagree with your forecast but I am only guessing and looking at the
models, so not much expertise.
From looking at all the models:-
I think the Low will be too far North which will cut off the proper cold
air.
I think there will be *too much slack* if\when the low did get far enough
south, which will lead to less cold air naturally, and lack of any
precipitation if there was any real cold air.
Hope I'm wrong.
Best regards,
Danny.

----------------------------------------------------------------------


"Will Hand" wrote in message
...


================================================== ==========================
====
===
This forecast represents the *PERSONAL OPINION* of the Chief forecaster at
the
privately run Haytor meteorological office in Devon on how the weather may
unfold next week. The Chief forecaster will take no responsibility
whatsoever
for any actions arising from its use. It is provided freely in the spirit
of
freedom and the great love for meteorology that we personally enjoy and
wish to
share freely with others.


================================================== ==========================
====
===

Summary valid for Sunday 19/02/06 to Saturday 25/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 16/02/06 2000 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

Moderate confidence that this week will see the first widespread snowfall
of the
winter in England and Wales. Possible disruption to transport services.
Very
high confidence, however, that the week will be very cold with
northeasterly
winds setting in.

On Sunday a developing low will track east across northern France and then
become slow moving over Belgium and Holland before filling up by midweek
and
then drifting south. The low will spread rain eastwards across southern
coastal
counties on Sunday morning with strengthening east or northeast winds. The
rain
will turn heavy and persistent giving a spell of snow above 400m asl.
Track
uncertain, so northern edge uncertain. Later in the day as the low turns
slightly northeast the rain will spread into much of SE England and the
Midlands
and during the evening will turn increasingly to sleet and snow on hills
above
about 150m asl. During the night the precipitation should drift eastwards
with
SW England becoming mainly dry but by Monday morning sleet and snow will
be
falling at low levels as temperatures fall to freezing giving a covering
of snow
in east and SE England. Lower risk of snowfall further west and north but
certainly possible. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cold and showery
with
sleet and snow on high ground. NW England showery with wintry showers on
hills
but possibly some rain, sleet and snow getting into NE England on Monday.
Winds
fresh to strong northeasterly in the south and east with some drifting
snow on
high ground. Moderate to fresh winds further north.

On Tuesday and Wednesday moderate to fresh, locally strong, east or
northeasterly winds will bring further spells of rain, sleet and snow to
all
areas. Rain mainly near the coast and on very low ground but inland, and
especially over hills, several centimetres of snow are likely in exposed
places.
East and SE England seem likely to catch most snow. However, SW England
(especially moors) could get some heavy snow on Wednesday as a front
brushes by
from the east. NW England and Scotland and Northern Ireland, brighter but
still
with wintry showers and some drifting on high ground.

For the rest of the week the trend will be for pressure to build to the
north of
Britain, so staying very cold and much drier in the north with severe
frost
setting in at night. Further sleet and snow showers in the south and east
with
frost at night. Drifting of lying snow in the moderate to fresh winds in
the
south.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for it
to stay
very cold with severe overnight frosts and further sleet and snow at
times.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 18th/19th February 2006.

Saturday looks like being mainly cloudy with spells of rain. Possibly some
sleet
and snow above 500m asl. Some sunny intervals below 300m asl. On Sunday
rain
with snow above 400m asl will set in during the early hours. Winds will
become
easterly fresh to strong with local gales on the south moor where blizzard
and
dangerous whiteout conditions are possible on the plateau for a time. Rain
turning increasingly to snow at all levels during the day but also tending
to
die out from the west. Confidence moderate. Temperatures generally 1-4 deg
C but
falling to freezing above 300m asl by end of Sunday. Walkers are advised
to get
an up to date weather check before venturing out on Sunday. Sledging
conditions
could become good on Sunday afternoon but strong winds and heavy snow may
make
access difficult, also drifting could become a problem.

Will Hand

Chief forecaster

Last week's forecast below as usual


================================================== ==========================
====
==

Summary valid for Sunday 12/02/06 to Saturday 18/02/06/
TOI (time of issue) Friday 10/02/06 1930 UK local time

This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO,
FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten

High confidence that this week will become wet and windy in all areas for
a
time. Moderate confidence on turning colder later with some snow (mainly
on
hills) next weekend.

Sunday and Monday look like turning milder as winds swing into the west
spreading rain eastwards. Rain only light and patchy though in the
southeast.
Heavier rain spreading eastwards from the Atlantic on Tuesday and turning
mild.
After Tuesday and for the rest of the week a deep depression will track
east to
northern Scotland with secondary depressions running east towards the UK.
This
means that bands of quite heavy rain and strong westerly winds will sweep
across
all areas. Showers and brighter interludes in between. Gales likely in
places on
Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures close to normal. Later in the week
winds
should ease and winds will turn more northwesterly and it will get colder.
Remaining very showery with more rain which will turn to sleet and snow on
high
ground above 300m asl, even in the south. Possibly some heavy and
prolonged snow
in the Scottish mountains. Generally too windy and cloudy for frost next
week,
although later in the week temperatures will fall close to freezing in
upland
areas.

Outlook for the following week with low to moderate confidence is for the
cold
and changeable weather to gradually give way to more settled conditions
spreading in from the west as pressure builds again.

Finally here is the Dartmoor winter walking and sledging forecast for the
weekend of 11th/12th February 2006.

Hope everyone remembered the suncream last Sunday while out walking.
Fantastic
wasn't it! This weekend looks like being mainly cloudy. Saturday mostly
dry
after perhaps a bit of light sleet and snow very early in the morning.
Possibly
some sunny intervals and light winds. Temperatures rising to near normal
at 3-5
deg C (depending on altitude). On Sunday the SW wind will freshen and the
cloud
base will lower below the plateau as rain and drizzle sets in. Turning
milder
with temperatures up to 6 deg C.

Will Hand (Chief forecaster)


================================================== ==========================
==

" Ah yet another day to enjoy "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

In article ,
John P writes:

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article . com,
vince writes:
Blimey Will you ought to post this on TWO , im sure the sever will
implode.

Someone (not me - I wouldn't do it without asking permission first) has
done it for him, on the Model Discussion thread.

Yes, that was me John and I don't see the problem considering I have quoted
the source and included all of Will's disclaimers?


There probably isn't one, but it's just possible that Will didn't want
it posted there, for whatever reason. [Added later: I see that Will has
said there's no problem, so all's well.]
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Cheers Will.
I have to say that I'm more optimistic about this cold spell than
previously.
I've been watching the charts for a while now and the pointers all seem to
be there. I'm not too sure how cold it will be though. Last Feb the snow
started on the 17th, but although we had 15 days consecutive snow cover and
16 days of snow falling, it never really built up at all.
I would have been happier had it been cold in Jan, but it could lead to some
disappointment again.

--
David Mitchell, 70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.

On Thu, 16 Feb 2006 20:08:53 -0000, Will Hand wrote:

Moderate confidence that this week will see the first widespread
snowfall of the winter in England and Wales.

Ah the traditional end of Feb snowfall. B-) As we have only had 9cm (if
you include the cm that only settled on the grass this morning and lasted
3hrs) and we average 50cm a year we are due a walloping amount, maybe
like last years traditional end of Feb fall?

--
Cheers
Dave. pam is missing e-mail

You have got to be kidding me.

The period for Joe's forecast to materalise has been and gone

Or does his forecast stretch out for months ahead ??

In that case, it's easy.

There will be storms anywhere from Channel Islands to Northern England,
sometime during the summer

There will be Hurricanes in the Atlantic between June and November

When someone makes a weather prediction, it MUST have an end date
applied

It's same situation with so called psychics, when they refuse to give a
real date for their predictions. "There will be a big Earthquake at
some point"

Where? When?

..... Silence - Cause they don't want to commit themselves

BlueLightning wrote:
You have got to be kidding me.

The period for Joe's forecast to materalise has been and gone

Or does his forecast stretch out for months ahead ??

In that case, it's easy.

There will be storms anywhere from Channel Islands to Northern England,
sometime during the summer

There will be Hurricanes in the Atlantic between June and November

When someone makes a weather prediction, it MUST have an end date
applied

It's same situation with so called psychics, when they refuse to give a
real date for their predictions. "There will be a big Earthquake at
some point"

Where? When?

.... Silence - Cause they don't want to commit themselves



snip
SUNDAY POST FEB 5, 2006

Now cold is one thing, what about snow. Well I think much of northwestern Europe will have some significant snows the next couple of weeks.

Two weeks on from Feb 5th is 19th, forecast currently suggest 20th/21st,
what more do you want?

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
snip
SUNDAY POST FEB 5, 2006

Now cold is one thing, what about snow. Well I think much of northwestern Europe will
have some significant snows the next couple of weeks.

Two weeks on from Feb 5th is 19th, forecast currently suggest 20th/21st,
what more do you want?

Well for it to actually happen for a start

Firstly 'Northwestern Europe' is a big place, much more than just the
British Isles. And what does 'the next couple of weeks' mean?
Does it mean *in* the next couple of weeks, (which is how I read it)
in which case his time is almost up, or in two weeks time which is
how you have read it?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.